The 2026 NFC East division market is a four-team board carrying roughly $935.6K in cumulative volume, and Kalshi holds about 98% of it. Its shape comes out of a strange 2025: Philadelphia won the division at 11-6 while going just 3-3 inside it, and the other three teams finished a combined 16-34-1. The live board above ranks the current cross-platform price on all four teams. Week 18 settles it on January 10, 2027.
Philadelphia is the defending NFC East champion, and the way the Eagles won it explains why this board is shaped the way it is. Philadelphia went 11-6 in 2025 and took the division by three and a half games while playing .500 football inside it, 3-3 against Dallas, Washington, and New York. Dallas had the best division record in the NFC East at 4-2 and finished third. The other three teams went a combined 16-34-1. That gap between winning your division and winning inside your division is the most misread thing about this contract, and it is worth understanding before reading a single price on the live board above.
The Eagles won the 2025 NFC East on defense, not offense. They allowed 325 points, fifth fewest in the NFL, while scoring 379, which ranked 19th. That is an unusual profile for a division favorite, and January exposed it twice in the same building: Washington, a 5-12 team, won 24-17 at Philadelphia in Week 18, and San Francisco ended the Eagles' season with a 23-19 wild-card win a week later.
The offense now has to replace A.J. Brown, who caught 78 passes for 1,003 yards and 7 touchdowns in Philadelphia last season and is on New England's roster for 2026. DeVonta Smith had already out-produced him, 1,008 yards on 77 catches, and becomes the unambiguous No. 1 with Hollywood Brown arriving from Kansas City. Jalen Hurts threw for 3,224 yards with 25 touchdowns against 6 interceptions and added 421 rushing yards and 8 scores on the ground, and Saquon Barkley ran for 1,140 yards. Nick Sirianni returns, as does the front that produced the defensive number, with Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis inside, though linebacker Jonathan Greenard has carried an out designation since August 19, 2026. Philadelphia is the board's anchor for one durable reason: it is the only NFC East team that did not spend 2025 waiting for someone to get healthy.
Dallas is the cleanest argument on the board and also the clearest warning. The Cowboys scored 471 points in 2025, seventh most in the league, and allowed 511, more than any other team in the NFL. Dak Prescott played all 17 games and threw for 4,552 yards with 30 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. George Pickens caught 93 passes for 1,429 yards and 9 touchdowns, and CeeDee Lamb added 1,077 yards in 14 games. That group finished 7-9-1.
The offense is not the question. Brian Schottenheimer enters year two with Prescott, Lamb, and Pickens all back, and Dallas already proved it can handle this division, taking four of six NFC East games. What it could not do was get a stop. The market has noticed the setup: the Dallas contract carries about $322.7K of cumulative Kalshi volume against Philadelphia's $281.7K, and it holds the most open interest of any team here. That is where the conviction money sits even though the Eagles trade higher. The Cowboys 2026 win total is the more direct way to express a Dallas-defense-improves thesis.
Washington's record is the most misleading number in the division. Jayden Daniels played seven games in 2025 and last appeared on December 7 against Minnesota. Terry McLaurin played ten. The Commanders spent most of the season without their franchise quarterback and their best receiver, and they still went 3-3 in the NFC East and won in Philadelphia in Week 18. In the seven games Daniels did play he threw for 1,262 yards with 8 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.
Dan Quinn returns, and Washington added Stefon Diggs, who spent 2025 in New England, to line up opposite McLaurin, along with running back Rachaad White and tight end Chig Okonkwo. The defense is the harder repair: 451 points allowed was sixth worst in the league, and the roster gave back a minus-95 point differential. Then the roster took a real hit in the final week of August. Left tackle Laremy Tunsil, defensive tackle Jer'Zhan Newton, and cornerback Trey Amos all landed on injured reserve on August 31, 2026, and edge defender Dorance Armstrong has been on the suspension list since August 19. Losing the man who protects Daniels' blind side is the version of this that matters most to the board, because the entire Washington thesis is a healthy quarterback.
The schedule offers no easing-in period either. Washington opens at Philadelphia on Sunday, September 13, 2026 and plays at Dallas the following Sunday, so this contract gets a real read on the Commanders inside the first two weeks.
The Giants are the most-changed team in the division. New York hired John Harbaugh, who coached Baltimore through the 2025 season before the Ravens turned the job over to Jesse Minter. He inherits a quarterback who played better than the record: Jaxson Dart threw for 2,272 yards with 15 touchdowns and 5 interceptions as a rookie and ran for 487 yards and 9 touchdowns in 14 games, while absorbing 35 sacks behind a line that needs work.
The 4-13 finish came with Malik Nabers available for four games and Cam Skattebo for eight. Even so, New York scored 381 points in 2025, more than the division-winning Eagles managed. Harbaugh brought tight end Isaiah Likely with him from Baltimore, the roster added Najee Harris, and Abdul Carter and Paulson Adebo headline a defense that surrendered 439 points. Nabers is carrying a questionable tag into the opener, which is the whole problem with reading this team off last year's number. The catch for anyone reading the Giants' price on the live board is that a coaching change usually shows up in wins well before it shows up in a division title, which is why the Giants 2026 win total tends to move on this story first.
The contract pays the team with the best overall regular-season record in the NFC East, not the best record inside the division. That distinction decided the 2025 board: Dallas went 4-2 in division play and finished third, while Philadelphia went 3-3 and won the title at 11-6. When two or more teams tie on overall record, the NFL's published tiebreakers apply in order, head-to-head first, then division record, then common games, then conference record. The regular season ends Sunday, January 10, 2027 on an all-division Week 18 slate, Philadelphia at the Giants and Dallas at Washington. Kalshi lists an expected expiration of January 11, 2027 against a January 25, 2027 outer limit and closes the market early once a title holder is declared, so a December clinch settles in December. Polymarket lists a fifth outcome, Other, which pays if the season is cancelled or no winner is declared by January 17, 2027. Both platforms settle off the NFL's official information.
The division winner is the entry point, not the whole picture. Because this contract pays on overall record, the four team win totals are its direct inputs: the Eagles 2026 win total and the Commanders 2026 win total frequently move before the division board does. From there, the NFC Championship 2026-27 odds and the Super Bowl LXI Champion market show what an NFC East title is worth in January, and the 2026 NFC North division futures offer the closest comparison, a division whose winner also finished 11-6. Browse the NFL prediction markets hub for every division race, conference future, and weekly game line.
Resolves to the team that wins the 2026 NFC East division title (the Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Washington Commanders, or New York Giants), determined by best overall regular-season record rather than best record inside the division. If two or more teams tie on overall record, the NFL's published tiebreaker order applies: head-to-head record first, then division record, then common games, then conference record. The 2026 regular season ends Sunday, January 10, 2027, and the board carries a January 11, 2027 resolution date; Kalshi lists a January 25, 2027 outer expiration and closes the market early once a division title holder is declared, so a clinch in December settles in December. Each team contract pays $1 per share if that team wins the division and every other team contract resolves to $0. Polymarket carries a fifth outcome, Other, which pays if the season is cancelled, postponed past January 17, 2027, or no winner is declared in that window. The source of truth on both platforms is official NFL information.
The live board above shows the current Kalshi and Polymarket price on all four teams. The board carries roughly $935.6K in cumulative volume and Kalshi holds about 98% of it, so the Kalshi quote is the deeper of the two books on every team.
The Philadelphia Eagles, at 11-6, three and a half games clear of second-place Dallas. Philadelphia went only 3-3 inside the division that year and lost at home to San Francisco 23-19 in the wild-card round.
The regular season ends Sunday, January 10, 2027, on an all-division Week 18 slate of Philadelphia at the Giants and Dallas at Washington. The board carries a January 11, 2027 resolution date, and Kalshi closes early once a division champion is declared.
Best overall regular-season record. This is not a technicality: Dallas had the best NFC East record in 2025 at 4-2 and finished third at 7-9-1, while Philadelphia went 3-3 in the division and won the title. Ties on overall record go to head-to-head first, then division record.
Washington's health, starting with the August 31, 2026 injured-reserve placements of Laremy Tunsil, Jer'Zhan Newton, and Trey Amos. After that, Week 1 on September 13, 2026 gives both division matchups at once, then Philadelphia at Dallas on Thanksgiving, November 26, 2026, and the all-division Week 18 finale on January 10, 2027.