The Trump administration departures 2026 market is not one race for one chair. It is a board of roughly 30 separate Yes lines, one per cabinet secretary, agency head, and senior White House official, each asking whether that person leaves their role at any point during 2026. The lines move independently and do not sum to 100, because more than one official can depart in the same year. With about $4.4M in cumulative volume, it is one of the larger personnel-tracking markets in politics, and it resolves in January 2027. The live board above ranks every official by current price.
The Trump administration departures 2026 market is not a single contest for one chair. It is a board of roughly 30 separate Yes lines, one for each cabinet secretary, agency head, and senior White House official, each asking whether that specific person leaves their role at any point during the 2026 calendar year. The lines move independently and do not sum to 100, because more than one official can exit in the same year. With about $4.4M in cumulative volume across Kalshi and Polymarket, it is one of the larger personnel-tracking markets in politics. The live board above ranks every official by current price.
Most prediction markets ask one question with one winner. This one is different. Each official on the board carries an independent contract: a Yes share pays out if that person leaves their post during 2026, and a No share pays out if they finish the year in the same role. Because every line is its own yes/no question, the prices are not a probability distribution over a single seat. They are dozens of separate estimates, and the sum across all names will run well past 100.
That structure matters for reading the page. A higher number on one official does not pull down another. Several departures in a single year are not just possible, they are common in any administration entering its second year. Treat each name as its own market, and use the live board above to compare where traders currently price the most and least secure positions across the cabinet and the West Wing.
The board spans the full senior roster. The cabinet secretaries include Marco Rubio at State, Scott Bessent at Treasury, Pete Hegseth at Defense, Howard Lutnick at Commerce, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at Health and Human Services, Linda McMahon at Education, Brooke Rollins at Agriculture, Chris Wright at Energy, Doug Burgum at Interior, Sean Duffy at Transportation, Doug Collins at Veterans Affairs, and Scott Turner at Housing and Urban Development.
The West Wing and senior staff side carries Susie Wiles as White House Chief of Staff, alongside Stephen Miller, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, and trade counselor Peter Navarro. The law-enforcement and agency block includes FBI Director Kash Patel, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, FHFA Director Bill Pulte, CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz, Small Business Administrator Kelly Loeffler, OMB Director Russell Vought, CBP Commissioner Rodney Scott, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr, and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.
A final group covers diplomatic and special roles, where shorter expected tenures are normal: Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, and border czar Tom Homan. The names with the deepest trading interest tend to be the highest-profile cabinet and senior staff lines, but the live board above is the only current ranking, and it shifts as news breaks on any individual official.
The market resolves on January 7, 2027, after the 2026 calendar year closes. Each official's line settles Yes if that person left their named role at any point during 2026, whether by resignation, removal, reassignment to a different post, or any other separation. A line settles No if the official held the same role through the end of the year. Resolution follows the platform's reading of official announcements and reporting for each named position.
For the longer-horizon question on the president himself, see the Trump impeachment 2029 odds. To track the balance of power that shapes confirmation math for any replacement, follow the 2026 congressional chamber control market. Browse the full politics prediction markets hub for related election and governance contracts, and read more Genius Staff coverage of cross-platform political markets.
Each official's line resolves on January 7, 2027, covering the full 2026 calendar year. A line settles Yes if that specific person left their named role at any point during 2026 by resignation, removal, reassignment, or any other separation, and No if they held the same role through the end of the year. Resolution follows the platform's reading of official government announcements and reporting for each named position. The roughly 30 lines settle independently, so any number of them can resolve Yes in the same year.
The market is a board of roughly 30 independent Yes lines, one per cabinet and senior official, each priced on whether that person leaves their role in 2026. The lines do not sum to 100, and total volume is about $4.4M. See the live board above for each official's current price.
Each line resolves on January 7, 2027, after the 2026 calendar year closes. An official's line settles Yes if they left their named role at any point during 2026, and No if they held it through year end.
Most of the roughly 30 lines trade on Kalshi, with only a small number of officials also listed on Polymarket. Cross-platform price comparison is therefore limited to the names that appear on both venues.
The deepest trading interest tends to sit on high-profile lines such as Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., FBI Director Kash Patel, and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles. The live board above is the only current ranking.
Watch for cabinet reshuffle reports, policy-dispute headlines, and any confirmation fights through 2026, since each can move a single official's line independently of the rest of the board ahead of the January 2027 resolution.