The Trump administration departures 2026 market has already paid out eight times. It is not one race for one chair but a board of independent Yes lines, one per cabinet secretary, agency head, and senior White House official, each asking whether that person leaves their role during the 2026 calendar year. Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, Tulsi Gabbard and five others have vacated their posts and settled off the board, leaving 29 officials still trading across roughly $4.7M in cumulative volume. The lines move independently and do not sum to 100, because more than one official can depart in the same year. Final settlement is January 7, 2027, and the live board above ranks every remaining name by current price.
The Trump administration departures 2026 market has already paid out eight times. It is not a single contest for one chair. It is a board of independent Yes lines, one for each cabinet secretary, agency head, and senior White House official, each asking whether that specific person leaves their named role during the 2026 calendar year. Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, Tulsi Gabbard, Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Dan Bongino, Greg Bovino, Todd Blanche, and David Sacks have all vacated their posts and settled off the board. Twenty-nine officials are still trading, across roughly $4.7M in cumulative volume on Kalshi and Polymarket. The live board above ranks every remaining name by current price.
Most prediction markets ask one question with one winner. This one is different. Each official carries an independent contract: a Yes share pays out if that person leaves their post during 2026, and a No share pays out if they finish the year in the same role. Because every line is its own yes/no question, the prices are not a probability distribution over a single seat. They are dozens of separate estimates, and the sum across the remaining names runs well past 100.
That structure matters for reading the page. A higher number on one official does not pull down another. Yes lines also settle early: when an official actually departs, that contract closes at 100c and drops off the live board rather than waiting for the calendar to run out. The names still showing a price are the ones still in their jobs.
The 2026 attrition started in January. Border Patrol commander-at-large Greg Bovino was removed from his post after enforcement operations in Minneapolis and sent back to the El Centro sector, and FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino left after less than a year in the job following a public clash with the Justice Department over the Epstein files. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem was out on March 5. AI and crypto adviser David Sacks moved to a co-chair seat on the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology in late March, after hitting the 130-day annual cap that governs special government employees.
April took two more. Trump fired Attorney General Pam Bondi on April 2 over her handling of the Epstein files, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer resigned on April 20. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard announced her resignation in May, citing her husband's cancer diagnosis. That run made four women lost from the cabinet in roughly three months.
The eighth exit shows how loosely "leaves their role" reads on this board. Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche did not leave the administration at all. He moved up, was confirmed as the 88th Attorney General on August 8, 2026, and his Deputy Attorney General line settled Yes because the named role changed hands. A promotion counts.
Karoline Leavitt is the ninth departure in fact, if not yet in settlement. Trump announced on August 12, 2026 that the 28-year-old White House press secretary would step down at the end of the month and move to an outside adviser role, and her contract has traded at 100c since, on about $719K of lifetime volume. It settles when she walks out the door.
Behind her, White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, FBI Director Kash Patel, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth head the remaining board. Patel and Hegseth carry the deepest books at roughly $1.2M each, and they got there for different reasons. Patel has absorbed a run of damaging coverage, including a Politico report quoting a senior White House official saying his exit is "only a matter of time," which the press office publicly denied. Hegseth's line is the only contract on the board quoted by both venues, so it is the one place a reader can compare Kalshi and Polymarket pricing on the same official.
The rest of the board covers the full senior roster. Housing Secretary Scott Turner, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent currently hold the board's lowest departure prices. Between them and the leaders sit HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Veterans Affairs Secretary Doug Collins, Energy Secretary Chris Wright, FHFA Director Bill Pulte, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, Education Secretary Linda McMahon, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz, SBA Administrator Kelly Loeffler, OMB Director Russell Vought, CBP Commissioner Rodney Scott, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr, Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, trade counselor Peter Navarro, Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, and border czar Tom Homan.
The board's final settlement date is January 7, 2027, once the 2026 calendar year has closed, but individual lines do not wait for it. A line settles Yes the moment the named official leaves the named role, by resignation, removal, reassignment, promotion, or any other separation, which is why eight contracts have already closed at 100c and come off the live board. A line settles No only at year end, if that official held the same post through December 31, 2026. Resolution follows the platform's reading of official government announcements and reporting for each named position.
Personnel turnover is one of several markets pricing the stability of the current government. The Trump impeachment 2029 odds and the Trump out of office before 2027 market take the same question to the top of the ticket. The Supreme Court retirement odds run on the identical non-exclusive structure, with an independent line per justice that does not sum to 100. For the confirmation math behind any replacement, the 2026 balance of power market prices Senate and House control ahead of November. Browse the politics prediction markets hub for the full slate.
Each official's line asks whether that specific person leaves their named role at any point during the 2026 calendar year. A line settles Yes as soon as the departure occurs, by resignation, removal, reassignment, promotion to another post, or any other separation, which is why eight contracts on this board already closed at 100c during 2026 instead of waiting for the deadline. A line settles No only if the official held the same role through December 31, 2026, and the board's final settlement date is January 7, 2027. Resolution follows the platform's reading of official government announcements and reporting for each named position. The lines settle independently, so any number of them can resolve Yes in the same year.
Twenty-nine officials are still trading and the lines do not sum to 100, because more than one person can depart in the same year. Karoline Leavitt's contract sits at 100c after her August 12, 2026 announcement, with Susie Wiles, Howard Lutnick, Kash Patel, and Pete Hegseth heading the rest of the board. See the live board above for every current price.
The board's final settlement date is January 7, 2027, but individual lines settle Yes the moment an official leaves the named role, and eight contracts already closed at 100c during 2026. A line settles No only if that official held the same post through December 31, 2026.
Kalshi lists all 29 remaining officials under its KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE series. Polymarket carries only Pete Hegseth, quoted at 24c against Kalshi's 27c as of August 17, 2026, so every other line on the board reflects a single venue's pricing.
Greg Bovino and Dan Bongino in January, Kristi Noem on March 5, David Sacks in late March, Pam Bondi on April 2, Lori Chavez-DeRemer on April 20, and Tulsi Gabbard in May. The eighth is Todd Blanche, whose Deputy Attorney General line settled when he was confirmed as Attorney General on August 8, 2026.
Kash Patel's position at the FBI is the most actively traded question left on the board, and the November 2026 midterms sit inside the contract window, which historically triggers post-election reshuffles. Either can move a single line without touching the rest ahead of the January 7, 2027 settlement.