Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Prediction Market Odds, August 11, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Mariners | -1.5 38%37% | O 8.5 45%45% | 27%28% | 28% Polymarket |
â–¶Yankees | +1.5 62%63% | U 8.5 55%55% | 27%28% | 28% Polymarket |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Seattle Mariners | -1.5 | O 8.5 | 28% Polymarket | |
â–¶New York Yankees | +1.5 | U 8.5 | 28% Polymarket |
New York is the 55c favorite for the series opener at Yankee Stadium on August 11, 2026, and the number is identical on both books, with Seattle at 46c on Kalshi and 45c on Polymarket. That agreement is the story. After a three-game Atlanta series in which the Yankees moneyline traveled 14c inside 72 hours, this board opened flat and has not left 55c. The records back the price without stretching it: New York is 66-52 and 29-26 at home, Seattle is 56-63 and 23-34 on the road with four straight losses.
A 55c home favorite is a modest price for a team fourteen games over .500 hosting a team seven games under, and that gap is where this board earns attention. New York enters at 66-52, second in the AL East and 5.5 games behind Tampa Bay. Seattle arrives at 56-63, third in the AL West and four back of Houston, carrying four straight losses including a doubleheader sweep at Tampa Bay on August 9, 2026. The market still prices the game inside a 10c band because the pitching matchup narrows it. Total board volume sits near $17.7K, with the moneyline carrying roughly $16.1K of it.
Mariners vs Yankees Market Context
The Mariners vs Yankees moneyline prices New York at 55c on Kalshi and 55c on Polymarket, an exact match, with Seattle at 46c on Kalshi and 45c on Polymarket. A 1c spread on the underdog side sits inside normal book noise and gives neither venue a meaningful edge on this game. Cross-platform disagreement across the rest of the board is equally thin: over 2.5 runs in the first five innings is 77c on Kalshi against 75c on Polymarket, and the first-five over/under 6.5 is 27c against 29c. When two independent order books land this close on a mid-August game, the read is that the information is fully priced rather than that one venue is lagging.
The line has held. Across the snapshot series covering the evening before first pitch, the Yankees side never left 55c on Kalshi and Seattle never left 46c, while Polymarket held Seattle at 45c throughout. That stability follows a genuinely volatile stretch. The Yankees moneyline traveled 14c over the three-day Atlanta series that ended August 9, 2026, a set New York took two games to one with one-run finishes of 3-2 and 5-4 before dropping the finale 2-1. A board that swung that hard and then reopened pinned is a board where the market has settled on a number rather than one waiting on news.
Mariners vs Yankees Pitching and Lineup Read
Seattle sends Bryan Woo, 8-8 with a 4.31 ERA over 127.1 innings and 127 strikeouts. New York counters with Ryan Weathers, 5-7 with a 3.79 ERA over 121.0 innings and 132 strikeouts. The half-run ERA gap plus home field accounts for most of the 9c distance between the two moneyline prices. The strikeout props treat the starters as near-equals: Woo 6+ strikeouts is 61c and Weathers 6+ strikeouts is also 61c, with Woo priced a shade higher at the 5+ rung (77c against 74c).
The run environment is the more interesting number. The full-game total sits at 55c for over 7.5 runs and 46.5c for over 8.5 runs, bracketing the market's expectation right around eight combined runs. Team totals split almost evenly: New York over 3.5 runs is 57c and Seattle over 3.5 runs is 54c, a 3c gap for a road club facing the better starter. That is a market saying the offenses are closer than the standings are.
New York is doing this without its headline bats. Aaron Judge has been on the 60-day injured list since July 18, 2026 with a stress fracture of the first rib on his right side and has progressed to on-field running work. Cody Bellinger has been on the 10-day list since July 26, 2026 with a left hamstring strain. Carlos Rodon is working back from left elbow inflammation and threw 48 pitches in a rehab start on August 8, 2026. Ben Rice has absorbed the load, leading the Yankees in batting average (.257), home runs (32), and RBIs (75). Seattle answers with Randy Arozarena at a team-best .276, Julio Rodriguez at 18 home runs, and Cole Young at 52 RBIs. The home run props reflect the park and the profiles: Cal Raleigh 1+ home runs is 20c, Rodriguez 16c, and Arozarena 15c.
When the Mariners vs Yankees Market Resolves
The Mariners vs Yankees market resolves on the final score of the game scheduled for 7:05 PM ET on August 11, 2026 at Yankee Stadium. The moneyline pays the winning team's contract $1 per share and the losing team's $0, with no draw outcome available in baseball. Run line contracts settle on the margin, so New York (-1.5) at 37c requires a win by two or more runs. Totals settle on combined runs across the full game, and the first-five-innings markets settle on the score after the top and bottom of the fifth regardless of what follows. Both platforms mark the board final once the game goes official.
Key Mariners vs Yankees Catalysts
- Starting pitching: Woo (4.31 ERA, 8-8) against Weathers (3.79 ERA, 5-7), the half-run gap carrying most of the 9c moneyline distance.
- Yankees availability: Judge, Bellinger, and Rodon are all unavailable, which is why the home price is 55c and not in the low 60s.
- Seattle road form: 23-34 away from T-Mobile Park and four consecutive losses entering the series opener.
- Cross-platform agreement: the Yankees side is 55c on both books and Seattle is within 1c, so venue selection is a rounding decision on this game.
- Run environment: over 7.5 runs at 55c and over 8.5 at 46.5c put the market's expectation near eight combined runs.
- Standings stake: New York sits 5.5 back of Tampa Bay in the AL East while Seattle sits four back of Houston in the AL West.
Related Mariners vs Yankees Markets
The Yankees board that set up this one is the Atlanta series finale on August 9, the game that closed out the 14c swing. Seattle's most recent priced game is the Tampa Bay nightcap, the fourth straight loss. Elsewhere on the same slate, the Astros vs Giants board carries a comparably pitching-driven price. League-wide context lives on the MLB prediction markets hub, and team-level markets sit on the New York Yankees hub and the Seattle Mariners hub.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to the team that wins the game between the Seattle Mariners and the New York Yankees scheduled for 7:05 PM ET on August 11, 2026 at Yankee Stadium. The winning team contract pays $1 per share and the losing team contract pays $0; baseball has no draw, so exactly one side resolves YES. Run line contracts settle on the final margin, meaning New York (-1.5) requires a win by two or more runs and Seattle (-1.5) requires the same. Total and team-total contracts settle on runs scored across the full game, while first-five-innings contracts settle on the score after the top and bottom of the fifth inning regardless of the final result. Both Kalshi and Polymarket settle once the game is official; a postponement moves settlement to the makeup date under each platform published rules.
Key Factors
- Bryan Woo (4.31 ERA, 8-8) against Ryan Weathers (3.79 ERA, 5-7) is the primary price driver
- Aaron Judge (60-day IL), Cody Bellinger (10-day IL), and Carlos Rodon (rehab) all unavailable for New York
- Seattle is 23-34 on the road and enters on a four-game losing streak
- Kalshi and Polymarket both price the Yankees at 55c, with Seattle 1c apart at 46c and 45c
- Total sits at 55c for over 7.5 runs and 46.5c for over 8.5, an expectation near eight combined runs
- Standings stake: Yankees 5.5 back in the AL East, Mariners four back in the AL West
What are the current Mariners vs Yankees odds?
As of August 11, 2026 the New York Yankees are 55c on both Kalshi and Polymarket and the Seattle Mariners are 46c on Kalshi and 45c on Polymarket. The Yankees price implies roughly a 55% chance of winning the series opener.
Who is favored in Mariners vs Yankees on August 11, 2026?
The Yankees are favored at 55c, an implied 55%. New York is 66-52 and 29-26 at home, while Seattle is 56-63 and 23-34 on the road, so the modest price reflects the pitching matchup rather than the standings gap.
Who are the probable starting pitchers?
Seattle starts Bryan Woo, 8-8 with a 4.31 ERA over 127.1 innings. New York starts Ryan Weathers, 5-7 with a 3.79 ERA over 121.0 innings and 132 strikeouts. Both are priced at 61c to record 6 or more strikeouts.
Where can I trade the Mariners vs Yankees market?
The game trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket, including the moneyline, run line, full-game total, first-five-innings markets, and player props. Board volume is near $17.7K, with the moneyline carrying roughly $16.1K of it.
When does the Mariners vs Yankees market resolve?
It resolves when the game goes final on August 11, 2026, first pitch 7:05 PM ET at Yankee Stadium. The moneyline pays $1 per share on the winning team and $0 on the loser.
What should I watch before first pitch?
Watch the Yankees injury list, since Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Carlos Rodon are all out and any activation reprices the home side. Watch the total as well, currently 55c for over 7.5 runs.