Wizards vs Hawks Prediction Market Odds, November 6, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Main ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Wizards | +7.5 48%49% | O 228.5 51%50% | 25%24% | 25% Kalshi |
▶Hawks | -7.5 52%51% | U 228.5 49%50% | 70%3% | 70% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Main ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Washington Wizards | +7.5 | O 228.5 | 25% Kalshi | |
▶Atlanta Hawks | -7.5 | U 228.5 | 70% Kalshi |
Atlanta is the clear favorite in the Wizards vs Hawks rematch, at 73c on Kalshi and 71.5c on Polymarket as of Friday afternoon, November 6, with the spread market pricing the Hawks by about 8 points. The two venues sit within 2c of each other on the winner. Atlanta (5-4) beat Washington (4-4) 120-105 in D.C. two nights ago, and both Jalen Johnson and Anthony Davis are listed day-to-day with ankle injuries per ESPN. Tip-off is 7:00 PM ET at State Farm Arena.
Wizards vs Hawks is a Southeast Division rematch two nights after Atlanta won 120-105 at Capital One Arena, and the market has repriced the series from a near coin flip to a firm Atlanta lean. The winner leaves Friday in first place in the Southeast: Atlanta (5-4) leads Washington (4-4) by half a game, per ESPN standings, and roughly $102K has traded across this game's contracts so far.
Wizards vs Hawks Odds and Market Context
As of about 2:00 PM ET on November 6, the moneyline has Atlanta at 73c on Kalshi and 71.5c on Polymarket (midpoint, per Polymarket's own market data), with Washington at 28c and 28.5c. That is a gap of 1.5c or less on each side, so neither venue offers a better price on the winner. For contrast, the Hawks were only a 55c to 56c road favorite before the Wednesday game in Washington.
The alternate markets agree with the moneyline. Hawks -7.5 trades at 52c on Kalshi and 51c on Polymarket, and Hawks -8.5 at 49c and 47c, so the spread market centers on Atlanta by about 8 points. The game total centers near 229: Over 228.5 is 51c on Kalshi and 52c on Polymarket, Over 226.5 is 57c and 56c, and Over 232.5 is 43c and 42c. Those numbers match the ATL -7.5 and 228.5 DraftKings line that ESPN lists for the game.
The movement is a round trip. In the Kalshi captures we hold, Atlanta traded at 74c around 7:25 PM ET Thursday, slid to 67c by about 12:15 AM ET Friday while Washington rose to 34c, then climbed back to 73c to 74c by midday Friday. Both Davis and Johnson were already on ESPN's day-to-day list by Thursday evening, before the 74c print, so the overnight dip does not line up with a new injury listing in our data. On the spread, Hawks -7.5 moved from 48c at about 1:30 AM ET to 52c by 1:10 PM ET, a small push toward Atlanta covering. The total has held in a tight 49c to 54c band on Over 228.5 since early Friday.
Wizards vs Hawks Form, Injuries and Leaders
Atlanta has won two straight, at Indiana 108-104 on Monday and at Washington 120-105 on Wednesday, per ESPN. Washington is 2-3 over its last five, with a 103-94 win at Orlando on Monday before Wednesday's home loss. The Hawks are only 1-2 at home and 4-2 on the road, and Washington is 2-2 away, so the 73c price leans on the head-to-head result and the roster, not on home-court form.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker leads Atlanta at 21.7 points per game and Jalen Johnson averages 18.3 points, 9.0 rebounds and 7.9 assists, per ESPN. Anthony Davis leads Washington at 23.4 points and 9.2 rebounds, and Trae Young averages 9.5 assists.
ESPN's injury report as of November 6 lists Johnson (ankle) as day-to-day for Atlanta, with Keshon Gilbert (knee), Asa Newell (toe), Jock Landale (hip) and Mouhamed Gueye (foot fracture) out. For Washington, Davis (ankle sprain) is day-to-day, and Reece Beekman (shoulder), Tristan Vukcevic (hip), Justin Champagnie (foot) and Jamir Watkins (knee surgery) are out. Davis is the bigger swing: he leads the Wizards in scoring and rebounding, and Kalshi's Davis 20+ points contract sits at 63c, which reads as a market expecting him to play. Johnson's 20+ points contract is 53c on Kalshi. Alexander-Walker's points over 19.5 shows the board's widest prop gap, 59c on Kalshi against 52c on Polymarket, so the under is cheaper on Kalshi.
When the Wizards vs Hawks Market Resolves
The moneyline settles on the official winner of the Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks game scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, at State Farm Arena, with overtime included. Spread and total contracts settle on the final score. Each winning share pays $1 on Kalshi and Polymarket once the game goes final.
Key Wizards vs Hawks Catalysts
- Anthony Davis: listed day-to-day (ankle sprain) by ESPN as of November 6; his 20+ points contract at 63c on Kalshi prices him as likely to play.
- Jalen Johnson: day-to-day (ankle) for Atlanta as of November 6, and he leads the Hawks in rebounds and assists.
- Overnight round trip: Atlanta fell from 74c to 67c on Kalshi after midnight and recovered to 73c by midday Friday.
- Division lead: Atlanta (5-4) leads Washington (4-4) by half a game, so the winner leaves in first place in the Southeast.
- Prop gap: Alexander-Walker over 19.5 points is 59c on Kalshi and 52c on Polymarket, a 7c split.
Related Wizards vs Hawks Markets
The Wednesday Hawks vs Wizards page covers the first meeting, when Atlanta was a 55c to 56c road favorite. For the season-long view, track the Hawks to make the playoffs market, the Wizards to make the playoffs market and the Eastern Conference champion odds. The Atlanta Hawks hub and Washington Wizards hub collect every live market for each team, and the NBA hub lists the rest of Friday's slate.
Resolution Criteria
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks game scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, including overtime. Spread contracts settle on the final margin and total contracts on the combined final score. Kalshi and Polymarket settle once the game is official; each winning share pays $1 and losing shares pay $0. If the game is postponed or canceled, each platform's own rules for rescheduled or voided games apply.
Key Factors
- Anthony Davis listed day-to-day (ankle sprain) by ESPN as of November 6; his Kalshi 20+ points contract trades at 63c
- Jalen Johnson day-to-day (ankle) for Atlanta as of November 6; he averages 18.3 points, 9.0 rebounds and 7.9 assists
- Atlanta fell from 74c to 67c on Kalshi overnight and recovered to 73c by midday Friday
- Atlanta (5-4) leads Washington (4-4) by half a game in the Southeast, so the winner leaves in first place
- Alexander-Walker over 19.5 points is 59c on Kalshi and 52c on Polymarket, the board's widest prop gap
What are the Wizards vs Hawks odds on November 6, 2026?
As of about 2:00 PM ET on November 6, Atlanta is 73c on Kalshi and 71.5c on Polymarket to win, and Washington is 28c and 28.5c. The Hawks were a 55c to 56c favorite before the first meeting on November 4.
Who is favored in Wizards vs Hawks?
Atlanta is favored at roughly a 72% implied probability averaged across Kalshi and Polymarket. The spread market prices the Hawks by about 8 points, with Hawks -7.5 at 52c on Kalshi.
What is the Wizards vs Hawks total?
The game total centers near 229 points. Over 228.5 trades at 51c on Kalshi and 52c on Polymarket as of November 6, matching the 228.5 DraftKings total ESPN lists.
Where can I trade the Wizards vs Hawks game?
The moneyline, spread, total and player props trade on Kalshi and Polymarket. Roughly $102K has traded across this game's contracts on the two venues so far.
When does the Wizards vs Hawks market resolve?
It resolves when the game goes final. Tip-off is 7:00 PM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, at State Farm Arena, and overtime counts toward the moneyline, spread and total.