Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith Prediction Market Odds, November 7, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Main ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Grant | — | — | 26%27% | 26% Kalshi |
▶Smith | — | — | 74%74% | 74% Polymarket |
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Elijah Smith is the 74% favorite over Davey Grant on Kalshi as of Nov 6, and the price has barely moved since the market opened on November 2 even as most of the money landed on Grant. The bantamweights meet on the main card of UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs Walker on Saturday, November 7, 2026, at Meta APEX in Las Vegas. Smith is 24 and 10-1 on a eight-fight win streak; Grant is 40 and 18-8.
Elijah Smith is a 74% favorite over Davey Grant on Kalshi as of Nov 6, with Grant at 26%, in a bantamweight bout on the main card of UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs Walker on Saturday, November 7, 2026, at Meta APEX in Las Vegas. It is a generational matchup: Smith is 24 and 10-1, Grant is 40 and 18-8, and the price reflects a market that expects the younger fighter to keep climbing.
Grant vs Smith Odds and Line Movement
Kalshi opened Grant at 30% on November 2 and he slid to 26% by that day's close. He has traded between 26% and 28% since, and Smith has held between 72% and 75%, sitting at 74% on every capture on November 6. The money tells a different story from the price. Grant's contract has taken about $11,800 of the board's $16,600 lifetime volume, including roughly $10,500 on November 4 and November 5 alone, while Smith's side has drawn about $4,900. Underdog buyers have not moved the line toward Grant since November 2. This board carries Kalshi pricing only; no Polymarket leg is paired to it.
Grant vs Smith Fight Breakdown
Smith (10-1) has won eight straight, per ESPN, since a TKO loss in March 2023, including three UFC wins: a unanimous decision over Vince Morales in February 2025, a first-round TKO of Toshiomi Kazama in August 2025, and a second-round submission of SuYoung You on March 14, 2026. He reached the UFC through a Dana White's Contender Series decision win in September 2024. Five of his 10 wins are by knockout, and ufc.com credits him with 2.98 takedowns per 15 minutes, so he wins in more than one way.
Grant (18-8) is the volume striker. Per ufc.com he lands 5.58 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.04, and nine of his 18 wins are submissions. His recent run is 3-1: decisions over Ramon Taveras in December 2024, Da'Mon Blackshear in July 2025 and Adrian Luna Martinetti on April 25, 2026, around a first-round submission loss to Charles Jourdain in October 2025.
Smith holds a two-inch reach edge, 71 inches to 69, and a one-inch height edge per ESPN. The read at 74% is that Smith's power and wrestling beat Grant's output over three rounds. Grant's case at 26% is pace: he has gone to decision in each of his last three wins, and he has the higher striking volume if the fight stays standing.
When the Grant vs Smith Market Resolves
The fight is a three-round bout on the main card, which starts at 8:00 PM ET on Paramount+ per ufc.com and ESPN; it is the third fight from the top of the card. The Kalshi contracts list the bout as November 6, but Kalshi's rules keep the market open for a fight that starts within 48 hours of that date, and the Saturday card falls inside that window. The market settles on the official result once a winner is declared.
Key Grant vs Smith Catalysts
- Age gap: Smith is 24 and Grant is 40, per ESPN.
- Streak: Smith has won eight straight, three of them in the UFC.
- Output: Grant lands 5.58 significant strikes per minute on ufc.com, against Smith's 4.18.
- Wrestling: Smith averages 2.98 takedowns per 15 minutes to Grant's 0.95.
- Money vs price: Grant's side holds about 70% of the Kalshi volume at a 26% price.
Related Grant vs Smith Markets
The rest of the November 7 card is on today's UFC board, including the main-card bout Priscila Cachoeira vs Nina Milosevic and the prelim Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid. For the division picture, see the UFC bantamweight champion market, or browse every fight and game on the sports hub.
Resolution Criteria
The Kalshi contracts resolve Yes for the fighter who wins the Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith bout on the UFC Fight Night card at Meta APEX, scheduled for Saturday, November 7, 2026 (Kalshi lists it as November 6). Kalshi keeps the market open if the fight starts within 48 hours of its listed time. A draw or no contest pays both contracts $0.50. A fight that is cancelled or does not start within 48 hours resolves at a fair price. Changes to the official result after the contracts expire do not affect settlement.
Key Factors
- Smith is 24 and on a eight-fight win streak; Grant is 40
- Grant lands 5.58 significant strikes per minute, the higher volume in the fight
- Smith averages 2.98 takedowns per 15 minutes to Grant 0.95
- Grant contract holds about 70% of Kalshi volume while priced at 26%
- Grant has gone to decision in each of his last three wins
What are the Grant vs Smith odds?
As of Nov 6, 2026, Kalshi prices Elijah Smith at 74% and Davey Grant at 26% to win their bantamweight bout on November 7.
When is Grant vs Smith?
The fight is on the main card of UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs Walker on Saturday, November 7, 2026, at Meta APEX in Las Vegas. The main card starts at 8:00 PM ET on Paramount+.
Where can I trade Grant vs Smith?
This board carries Kalshi pricing only. Kalshi lists one contract for each fighter, and about $16,600 has traded on the fight.
Who is favored, Grant or Smith?
Smith is favored. He is 10-1 with eight straight wins, three of them in the UFC, while the 40-year-old Grant is 18-8 and 3-1 in his last four.
How does the Grant vs Smith market settle?
The winning fighter contract pays $1. A draw or no contest pays both sides $0.50, and a fight that does not start within 48 hours of its listed time resolves at a fair price.