Tatiana Suarez vs Virna Jandiroba Prediction Market Odds, November 7, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Main ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Suarez | — | O 2.5 76% | 65%65% | 65% Kalshi |
▶Jandiroba | — | U 2.5 24% | 35%36% | 35% Kalshi |
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Tatiana Suarez is the 65% favorite over Virna Jandiroba on Kalshi as of Nov 6, a price that has held between 65% and 67% since the market opened at 58% on November 2. The No. 2 and No. 3 strawweights on ufc.com meet in the co-main event of UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs Walker on Saturday, November 7, 2026, at Meta APEX in Las Vegas. Suarez is 13-1, Jandiroba is 23-4, and both have won since losing their most recent title fight.
Tatiana Suarez is a 65% favorite over Virna Jandiroba on Kalshi as of Nov 6, with Jandiroba at 36%, in the women's strawweight co-main event of UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs Walker on Saturday, November 7, 2026, at Meta APEX in Las Vegas. Both lost their last title fight and have won since, and ufc.com ranks Suarez No. 2 and Jandiroba No. 3 in the division, so two of the top three contenders meet with a title shot in view.
Suarez vs Jandiroba Odds and Line Movement
The Kalshi moneyline opened at 58% for Suarez on November 2, the day the contracts listed, and climbed to 66% by the close that day. It has sat in a 65% to 67% band since: 66% on November 3, 65% on November 4 and November 5, and 65% on every capture through the afternoon of November 6. Jandiroba has traded between 35% and 37% over the same stretch. The Suarez contract carries about $12,700 of the board's $17,300 lifetime Kalshi volume, so most of the money has gone to the favorite. This board carries Kalshi pricing only; no Polymarket leg is paired to it.
Suarez vs Jandiroba Fight Breakdown
Suarez (13-1) is a wrestler first. Per ufc.com she averages 4.52 takedowns per 15 minutes and has won seven of her 13 fights by submission. Her only loss was a unanimous decision to Zhang Weili in a five-round title fight at UFC 312 in February 2025. Since then she beat Amanda Lemos by unanimous decision in September 2025 and submitted Loopy Godinez in the second round at UFC 327 on April 11, 2026.
Jandiroba (23-4) has 14 career submission wins and a 73% takedown defense rate on ufc.com. She lost a five-round decision to Mackenzie Dern for the title at UFC 321 in October 2025, then beat Tabatha Ricci by unanimous decision on April 4, 2026. Six of her last seven fights went the distance, and she won five of them.
The two share opponents, and the results line up with the price. Suarez submitted Godinez in 2026, while Jandiroba needed 15 minutes to beat Godinez in 2024. Both beat Lemos, Jandiroba by second-round submission in July 2024 and Suarez on the cards in September 2025. Suarez is also the bigger athlete, at 5 feet 5 with a 66-inch reach against Jandiroba's 5 feet 3 and 64 inches per ESPN. The 65% price says the market trusts Suarez to control where the fight happens. Jandiroba's path at 36% is the scramble: her submission game off her back is the one place where Suarez's takedowns can turn against her.
When the Suarez vs Jandiroba Market Resolves
The fight is scheduled for three rounds on the main card, which starts at 8:00 PM ET on Paramount+ per ufc.com and ESPN. The Kalshi contracts list the bout as November 6, but Kalshi's rules keep the market open for a fight that starts within 48 hours of that date, and the Saturday card falls inside that window. The market settles on the official result once a winner is declared.
Key Suarez vs Jandiroba Catalysts
- Takedown rate: Suarez lands 4.52 takedowns per 15 minutes against Jandiroba's 73% takedown defense.
- Submission threat: Jandiroba has 14 submission wins, double Suarez's seven.
- Pace: Jandiroba averages 13:18 of fight time per bout, so a long fight is her normal.
- Size: Suarez has a two-inch height and reach edge.
- Title picture: Suarez framed the bout on ufc.com as "Finish This Opponent And Get A Title Shot."
Related UFC Fight Night Markets
The rest of the November 7 card is on today's UFC board, including the main-card bout Priscila Cachoeira vs Nina Milosevic and the main-card opener Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli. Suarez is No. 8 in ufc.com's pound-for-pound rankings. For the season-long view, see the UFC pound-for-pound year-end market, or browse every fight and game on the sports hub.
Resolution Criteria
The Kalshi contracts resolve Yes for the fighter who wins the Tatiana Suarez vs Virna Jandiroba bout on the UFC Fight Night card at Meta APEX, scheduled for Saturday, November 7, 2026 (Kalshi lists it as November 6). Kalshi keeps the market open if the fight starts within 48 hours of its listed time. A draw or no contest pays both contracts $0.50. A fight that is cancelled or does not start within 48 hours resolves at a fair price. Changes to the official result after the contracts expire do not affect settlement.
Key Factors
- Suarez averages 4.52 takedowns per 15 minutes against Jandiroba with 73% takedown defense
- Jandiroba has 14 career submission wins to Suarez seven
- Both lost their most recent title fight; Suarez told ufc.com a finish should earn a title shot
- Shared opponents favor Suarez: she submitted Godinez, whom Jandiroba beat on the cards
- Kalshi price has held between 65% and 67% for Suarez since November 2
What are the Suarez vs Jandiroba odds?
As of Nov 6, 2026, Kalshi prices Tatiana Suarez at 65% and Virna Jandiroba at 36% to win their UFC Fight Night co-main event on November 7.
When is Suarez vs Jandiroba?
The fight is the co-main event of UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs Walker on Saturday, November 7, 2026, at Meta APEX in Las Vegas. The main card starts at 8:00 PM ET on Paramount+, and this bout is second to last.
Where can I trade Suarez vs Jandiroba?
This board carries Kalshi pricing only. Kalshi lists one contract for each fighter, and the Suarez side has drawn about $12,700 of the $17,300 traded on the fight.
Who is favored, Suarez or Jandiroba?
Suarez is favored. She is 13-1 with one loss, to Zhang Weili in a 2025 title fight, and ranks No. 2 at strawweight on ufc.com, one spot ahead of the 23-4 Jandiroba.
How does the Suarez vs Jandiroba market settle?
The winning fighter contract pays $1. A draw or no contest pays both sides $0.50, and a fight that does not start within 48 hours of its listed time resolves at a fair price.