Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli Prediction Market Odds, November 7, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Main ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Raposo | — | — | 31%32% | 32% Polymarket |
▶Degli | — | — | 69%69% | 69% Polymarket |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Main ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Mitch Raposo | — | — | 32% Polymarket | |
▶Marcos Degli | — | — | 69% Polymarket |
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Marcos Degli is a 70c favorite over Mitch Raposo at 31c on Kalshi as of November 6, about a 70% implied chance for a fighter making his UFC debut. Degli (15-3) has 14 finishes and 8 first-round wins, Raposo (11-3) has won his last two by decision, and Raposo's price has slipped from 35c on November 2 to 31c.
Raposo vs Degli Odds and Market Read
Kalshi prices Marcos Degli at 70c and Mitch Raposo at 31c as of November 6. Pricing a UFC debutant at 70c against a fighter who has been in the UFC since his June 1, 2024 debut is a strong statement about Degli's finishing record. The board is Kalshi only, with about $3.8K in volume and no paired Polymarket leg.
The flyweight bout opens the main card of UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs Walker on Saturday, November 7, 2026 at Meta APEX in Las Vegas. UFC.com and ESPN list the main card at 8 PM ET, after prelims at 5 PM ET. Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Johnny Walker headlines, and the women's strawweight co-main is Tatiana Suarez vs Virna Jandiroba.
Line Movement: Slow Drift Toward Degli
Raposo opened November 2 at 35c and has eased lower each day: 33c on November 3, 32c by November 4 and a 31c low on November 5. Degli traded 67c to 69c early in the week and moved up to a 69c to 70c range on November 5. Across our Kalshi captures from Thursday evening into Friday, Degli held 69c to 70c and Raposo ticked from 32c down to 31c. The move is small but it has run in one direction all week.
The Matchup: Debut Finisher vs Decision Grinder
Degli (15-3, age 26, Brazil) has 9 knockout wins, 5 submission wins and 8 first-round finishes per UFC.com, so 14 of his 15 wins ended early. He earned his UFC contract with a flyweight win on Dana White's Contender Series in September 2026, and this is his Octagon debut. He is 5'6" with a 67 inch reach.
Raposo (11-3, age 28, Fall River, Massachusetts) is 5'5" with a 64.5 inch reach, giving up 2.5 inches. His last three fights all went the full 15 minutes: a split decision loss to Su Mudaerji on April 12, 2025, a unanimous decision win over Azat Maksum on October 25, 2025, and a split decision win over Allan Nascimento on June 20, 2026. He has 4 knockout and 3 submission wins.
The market is betting that Degli's power carries over to the UFC level. Raposo's path at 31c is the one his recent record shows: keep it close for three rounds and take a decision.
Key Raposo vs Degli Factors
The debut question drives this price. Degli has never fought in the Octagon, while Raposo has gone 15 minutes in each of his last three UFC fights. The reach edge and Degli's finishing rate are why the market still has him at 70c. The book is thin at about $3.8K, so fight-night orders can move it quickly. For the division picture, see the UFC flyweight title market, and the full card is on the UFC hub.
Resolution Criteria
The Kalshi moneyline resolves to the fighter who wins the Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli flyweight bout on the UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs Walker card. Kalshi's contract describes the fight as originally scheduled for November 6, 2026; UFC.com and ESPN list the bout on the Saturday, November 7 card, and Kalshi's rules keep the market open if the fight begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start. The winning fighter's contract pays $1 per share and the other pays $0. A draw or no contest resolves both contracts to 50c, and if the fight is cancelled or not started within 48 hours, both contracts resolve to a fair price under Kalshi's rules. Results changed after the contract expires do not affect resolution.
Key Factors
- Raposo has slid from 35c on November 2 to 31c, Degli is up to 70c
- Degli makes his UFC debut with 14 finishes in 15 wins
- Raposo's last three fights all went to the judges, including two split decisions
- Degli holds a 2.5 inch reach advantage at 67 inches
- Thin book at about $3.8K in Kalshi volume
- Main card opener, scheduled for the 8 PM ET main card on November 7
What are the Raposo vs Degli odds?
As of November 6, 2026, Kalshi prices Marcos Degli at 70c and Mitch Raposo at 31c, about a 70% implied chance for Degli.
When is Raposo vs Degli?
The flyweight bout opens the main card of UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs Walker on Saturday, November 7, 2026 at Meta APEX in Las Vegas. The main card begins at 8 PM ET per UFC.com and ESPN.
Where can I trade Raposo vs Degli?
The fight trades on Kalshi as a two-way winner market with about $3.8K in volume. Our board carries only the Kalshi leg for this bout.
Who is favored, Mitch Raposo or Marcos Degli?
Degli is the favorite at 70c on Kalshi as of November 6, despite making his UFC debut. He is 15-3 with 9 knockout wins, while Raposo is 11-3.
How does the Raposo vs Degli market resolve?
The winning fighter's contract pays $1 per share. A draw or no contest pays 50c on both sides, and a fight that is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its scheduled start resolves to a fair price under Kalshi's rules.
What should I watch in Raposo vs Degli?
Watch whether Raposo can drag it to the scorecards. His last three fights all went 15 minutes, while 14 of Degli's 15 wins ended inside the distance.