| Spread | Total | ML | Main ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
State | +0.5 — | O 35.5 — | 0%0% | — |
UMass | -0.5 — | U 35.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Main ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Ball State | +0.5 — | O 35.5 — | 0%0% | — |
UMass | -0.5 — | U 35.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
UMass is a 60c moneyline favorite over Ball State on both Kalshi and Polymarket as of November 4, a 60% implied win probability for a team that opened 4-0 and has lost four straight since. Ball State (3-5, 2-2 MAC) arrives on a two-game win streak at 41c, and the board has faded UMass from a 69c to 70c peak in late October. Kickoff is 7:00 PM ET Wednesday in Amherst, with roughly $96K traded across the game board.
UMass is laying a short number to a Ball State team that is playing better than it was a month ago, and the prediction market has spent the last week pricing that in. As of November 4 the Minutemen trade at 60c on both Kalshi and Polymarket, Ball State at 41c on both, so the two venues agree to the cent and there is no cross-platform price edge on the moneyline. The game kicks off at 7:00 PM ET Wednesday, November 4, at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Amherst, Massachusetts (ESPN and Polymarket both list the same start), and the board has drawn about $96K in total volume.
The records tell two different stories. UMass is 4-4 overall and 1-3 in the MAC, per ESPN, but the split is stark: the Minutemen won their first four games (37-21 at Rutgers, 37-10 over Sacred Heart, 36-14 over Stonehill, 35-6 at Sacramento State) and have lost four in a row since. That skid ran 14-38 to Eastern Michigan, 19-20 to Miami (OH), 18-25 in overtime at Buffalo and 16-35 at UConn, an average of 16.8 points scored across the four losses. UMass is 2-2 at home.
Ball State is 3-5 overall and 2-2 in conference play, with the better recent form. The Cardinals lost five of their first six, including 3-56 at Ohio State and 24-39 to Toledo, then won 32-31 in overtime at Bowling Green and 34-17 over Sacramento State. Both teams were idle the weekend of October 31, so neither carries a short-week edge into the Wednesday slot. Ball State is 1-4 away from Muncie this season.
The one common opponent is Sacramento State: UMass won 35-6 on the road, Ball State won 34-17 at home. That margin gap is part of why the market still makes UMass the favorite despite the losing streak.
On the stat sheet, UMass quarterback William Watson III leads the team with 1,025 passing yards, 8 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, and T.Y. Harding leads in receiving (327 yards). Ball State's Keldric Luster has thrown for 1,300 yards with 9 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, and running back TJ Horton has 425 rushing yards and 9 rushing touchdowns, the most productive scoring threat in this matchup.
The movement is the cleanest read on the board. Per the Genius price history, UMass traded as high as 69c on Kalshi between October 24 and October 29 and 70c on Polymarket on October 27 and 28. Both venues dropped the Minutemen into the low 60s on October 29 and settled at 60c from November 2 onward; Kalshi's captures from Monday night through Wednesday morning held at 60c without a tick. That is a roughly 10-point slide on the favorite in a week with no game played by either team, which reads as the market marking down the four-game skid rather than reacting to news.
ESPN's matchup predictor is more bullish on the home side, giving UMass a 72.8% win probability against the market's 60%. That 13-point gap between a model and the traded price is the largest disagreement on this board.
The spread market centers on UMass by about a field goal. As of November 4, UMass -2.5 trades at 56c on Kalshi and 55c on Polymarket, while UMass -3.5 sits at 48c on Kalshi and 46c on Polymarket, so the market prices the Minutemen to win by three or fewer slightly more often than by four or more. The -3.5 rung is the deepest spread line on the board at about $38K traded. DraftKings, per ESPN, lists UMass -3.
The total sits near 49.5 points. The over 49.5 trades at 48c on Kalshi and 49c on Polymarket, a near coin flip that leans slightly to the under. That line moved during the week: Kalshi dropped the over to 44c on October 30 and 42c at its October 31 low before it climbed back to about 50c by November 2. UMass has not scored more than 19 points in any of its last four games, which is the under case.
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game played Wednesday, November 4, 2026, at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium, including any overtime. Spread and total contracts settle on the official final score. Kalshi and Polymarket settle once the game goes final; the Kalshi game ticker carries a November 3 date code, but the contract covers this Wednesday game.
Wednesday's MAC slate continues the conference's midweek run that started Tuesday with the Buffalo vs Miami (OH) game board and the Ohio vs Akron game board. The same Wednesday night also has the Toledo vs Sacramento State game board and the Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan game board. For the bigger picture, the College Football Playoff qualifiers market tracks which teams make the field, and every college game board lives on the NCAA football hub.
The Ball State vs UMass moneyline resolves Yes for the team that wins the game played on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Amherst, Massachusetts, with overtime included in the final result. Spread contracts settle on the final margin and total contracts settle on the combined final score, both as reported in the official result. Each winning contract pays $1 per share on Kalshi and Polymarket and losing contracts pay $0. If the game is postponed or canceled, each platform applies its own rules for rescheduled or voided events.
As of November 4, 2026, UMass is 60c to win on both Kalshi and Polymarket and Ball State is 41c on both. That makes UMass roughly a 60% favorite.
Kickoff is 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Amherst, Massachusetts. ESPN lists the game on ESPNU.
The game trades on Kalshi and Polymarket, with moneyline, spread and total markets. The board has drawn about $96K in total volume.
As of November 4, UMass -3.5 trades at 48c on Kalshi and 46c on Polymarket, and the over 49.5 trades at 48c on Kalshi and 49c on Polymarket. Both lines sit close to even.
The markets settle when the game goes final on November 4, 2026. The moneyline pays the winner including overtime, and spread and total contracts settle on the official final score.