Colts vs Patriots Prediction Market Odds, August 13, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Colts | +16.5 91% | O 17.5 95% | 46%47% | 47% Polymarket |
â–¶Patriots | -16.5 9% | U 17.5 5% | 54%54% | 54% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Indianapolis Colts | +16.5 | O 17.5 | 47% Polymarket | |
â–¶New England Patriots | -16.5 | U 17.5 | 54% Kalshi |
No player props available for this game.
New England is the 54.5c favorite over Indianapolis at 46.5c, which is as close to a coin flip as a two-book board gets. This is preseason football at Gillette Stadium, so the price is not a read on roster strength: starters take limited snaps, a share of veterans will not dress, and stated starter plans move this number more than talent does. Roughly $40K has traded across Kalshi and Polymarket, with the spread pivoting at New England -1.5 and the total pivoting at 38.5 combined points.
Indianapolis at New England kicks off at 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, August 13, 2026 at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts, with both teams listed at 0-0. The Colts vs Patriots prediction market prices New England at 54.5c and Indianapolis at 46.5c, an 8c separation that qualifies as a pick-em on any scale. Roughly $40K in volume sits across the two platforms carrying this board, and the Kalshi moneyline has held 55c across 33 consecutive price snapshots in the 24 hours to August 11, 2026.
Colts vs Patriots Preseason Market Context
This is a preseason game, and that single fact explains most of the price. Starters take limited snaps in August, a meaningful share of veterans do not dress at all, and depth charts behind the top of the roster are unsettled until final cuts. Preseason moneylines therefore cluster near even money regardless of how the two rosters compare on paper, and this board is a textbook case of it at 54.5c against 46.5c. Whatever the result on August 13, it carries close to zero information about either team's regular season.
What actually moves a preseason number is the coaching staff's stated plan for starter usage. A public decision to rest a starting quarterback for the full game is worth more to this price than any roster evaluation, and those announcements land in the days before kickoff. As of August 11, 2026 no such plan is reflected in the price action, so the read is that the market is pricing uncertainty about who plays rather than a conviction about who is better. The NFL market hub carries the rest of the August slate on the same shape.
The two books agree almost exactly. New England trades at 55c on Kalshi and 54c on Polymarket; Indianapolis trades at 46c on Kalshi and 47c on Polymarket, a 1c gap on each side. Both books price the pair at a combined 101c, so the overround is identical and neither venue is carrying a materially different opinion. Polymarket lists the moneyline and the headline rungs of the spread and total; the deeper rungs of both ladders are Kalshi listings.
Colts vs Patriots Spread and Total Ladders
With the moneyline this tight, the ladders are the more informative read. The spread pivots at New England -1.5, which trades at 49c on Kalshi and 51c on Polymarket. Indianapolis -1.5 sits at 46c. New England -2.5 also prints 49c on Kalshi, identical to the -1.5 rung, which is the signature of a thin August book rather than a real half point of value. From there the curve decays quickly: New England -3.5 at 44c, -5.5 at 39c, -7.5 at 30c, and -10.5 at 23c.
The Colts side of the ladder is close to a mirror image, with Indianapolis -2.5 at 44c, -3.5 at 39c, -5.5 at 34c, and -7.5 at 23c. Two ladders that overlay each other within a few cents at every rung is what a genuine pick-em looks like in structure, not just at the top line. Neither side of this board is priced for a comfortable win.
The total tells the clearer story. Over 37.5 points trades at 57c, over 38.5 at 50c, and over 39.5 at 45.5c (45c on Kalshi, 46c on Polymarket), which puts the market's implied median score for the game right at 38.5 combined points. That is well under a typical regular season NFL number and consistent with August football, where drives end faster, backups take the majority of snaps, and neither staff is chasing points late. The far ends of the ladder confirm the shape: over 17.5 points is 96c, over 29.5 is 78c, over 50.5 is 20c, and over 59.5 is 8c.
The one line that has moved is the over. Over 37.5 points drifted from 54c to 57c across 12 snapshots in the day to August 11, 2026, a 3c push toward scoring. The moneyline over the same window did not move at all. On a board this quiet, a 3c drift on a single total rung is the entire movement story, and "the market has not moved" is the honest description of everything else.
When the Colts vs Patriots Market Resolves
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game at Gillette Stadium on Thursday, August 13, 2026. Spread and total contracts settle against the official final score, including overtime where the preseason format applies it. Settlement happens on Kalshi and Polymarket once the game is final, typically within hours of the whistle. A postponement pushes settlement to the rescheduled completion, and a cancellation voids the contracts under each platform's published rules.
Key Colts vs Patriots Catalysts
Starter usage announcements: the single largest price driver on any preseason board, and neither staff's plan is reflected in the current 54.5c against 46.5c line.
The -1.5 pivot: New England -1.5 at 49c on Kalshi and 51c on Polymarket is where the board is genuinely undecided, and where a starter-rest report would show up first.
The 38.5 total: over 38.5 at 50c is a true coin flip on scoring, and the 3c drift on over 37.5 from 54c to 57c is the only directional move on the board.
Ladder symmetry: New England -3.5 at 44c against Indianapolis -3.5 at 39c is the widest gap between mirrored rungs, and it is only 5c.
Thin August liquidity: roughly $40K across both books means single fills move rungs, so the -1.5 and -2.5 rungs printing the same 49c is a book depth artifact rather than a pricing signal.
Related Colts vs Patriots Markets
Season-long context for this matchup lives in the futures boards: the Patriots 2026 win total and the Colts 2026 win total both price the full 17-game slate, and neither will react meaningfully to an August result. For the rest of the day's slate and the live cross-platform board on every game, see NFL games today and the broader football markets hub.
Resolution Criteria
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game played at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts on Thursday, August 13, 2026, with a 7:30 PM ET kickoff. Each winning team contract pays $1 per share and the losing side settles at $0. Spread contracts settle against the official final margin and total contracts against the official combined score, including any overtime played under the preseason format. Both Kalshi and Polymarket settle once the game is declared final, typically within hours of the conclusion. If the game is postponed, settlement moves to the rescheduled completion date; if it is canceled outright, contracts void under each platform published rules.
Key Factors
- Announced starter usage plans for both staffs (the largest single price driver on a preseason board)
- New England -1.5 at 49c on Kalshi and 51c on Polymarket, the true pivot of the spread ladder
- Over 38.5 points at 50c, an exact coin flip on the market implied median score
- Over 37.5 points drifting 54c to 57c in the day to August 11, 2026, the only directional move on the board
- Mirror-image spread ladders (New England -3.5 at 44c against Indianapolis -3.5 at 39c) confirming a genuine pick-em
- Roughly $40K of two-book volume, thin enough that single fills reprice individual rungs
What are the current Colts vs Patriots odds?
As of August 11, 2026 New England is the 54.5c favorite (55c on Kalshi, 54c on Polymarket) and Indianapolis trades at 46.5c (46c on Kalshi, 47c on Polymarket). That is an 8c separation, effectively a pick-em.
Who is favored in Colts vs Patriots on August 13, 2026?
New England is the home favorite at 54.5c, an implied probability of roughly 55%. Indianapolis at 46.5c implies roughly 47%. Both books agree within 1c on each side.
What is the spread and total for Colts vs Patriots?
The spread pivots at New England -1.5, priced 49c on Kalshi and 51c on Polymarket. The total pivots at 38.5 combined points, with over 38.5 at 50c and over 39.5 at 45.5c as of August 11, 2026.
Where can I trade the Colts vs Patriots market?
The game trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Polymarket lists the moneyline plus the headline spread and total rungs; the deeper rungs of both ladders, out to New England -16.5 and over 59.5 points, are Kalshi listings.
When does the Colts vs Patriots market resolve?
It resolves when the game goes final at Gillette Stadium on Thursday, August 13, 2026, kickoff at 7:30 PM ET. Both platforms settle within hours of the final whistle.
What should I watch before Colts vs Patriots kicks off?
Watch for either staff announcing starter usage. Preseason moneylines sit near even money because participation is unknown, so a confirmed decision to rest a starting quarterback is the most likely catalyst to move New England off 54.5c.