Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction Market Odds, September 13, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Dolphins | +3.5 53%54% | O 40.5 49%49% | 34%34% | 34% Kalshi |
â–¶Raiders | -3.5 47%46% | U 40.5 51%51% | 60%61% | 61% Polymarket |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Miami Dolphins | +3.5 | O 40.5 | 34% Kalshi | |
â–¶Las Vegas Raiders | -3.5 | U 40.5 | 61% Polymarket |
Las Vegas hosts Miami in the Week 1 opener as the home moneyline favorite, priced at 63c on both Kalshi and Polymarket as of September 5, 2026, with the Dolphins at 38c. That is a projection trade, not a form trade: the Raiders finished 3-14 in 2025 and the Dolphins 7-10, and both teams open with a first-year head coach and a rebuilt quarterback room. The board carries about $163K in cumulative volume across two platforms, with the spread ladder centered on Las Vegas -3.5 and the total priced near 41. Kickoff is 4:25 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium.
Las Vegas opens the 2026 season as the favorite over Miami on a board built almost entirely from offseason change rather than last season's results. The Raiders went 3-14 in 2025 and scored 14.2 points per game with a minus-191 point differential. The Dolphins went 7-10 at 20.4 points per game and minus-77. Both franchises start a first-year head coach, both start a quarterback who was not their Week 1 starter a year ago, and the market has decided the home side is the better of the two projects.
Dolphins vs Raiders Market Context
As of September 5, 2026, Las Vegas is the 63c moneyline favorite and Miami is 38c, and the notable feature is that Kalshi and Polymarket are identical on both legs at 63c and 38c. Game boards this size usually carry a cent or two of daylight between the books, so there is no better price to pick off on either side here. The two legs have drawn roughly $50.0K and $42.1K in cumulative volume respectively, and the 101c two-sided sum is about as tight as a Week 1 moneyline gets.
The spread ladder is where the market states its real number. Thirty-seven rungs are live, and the most traded is Las Vegas -3.5 at 48.5c on about $14.1K, with Las Vegas -2.5 at 57c and Las Vegas -4.5 at 45c bracketing it. That triangulates to a true line of Las Vegas by roughly three, which is exactly what a 63c home favorite should look like. The total ladder points at 41: over 39.5 trades at 54.5c, over 40.5 at 51c, and over 41.5 at 47.5c. The single most traded total rung on the board is the longshot over 61.5 at 7c on about $11.9K, which is a lottery ticket rather than a projection.
A 41-point total against two offenses that combined for 34.6 points per game in 2025 is the market giving both quarterback rooms credit it has no evidence for yet. Las Vegas lists Kirk Cousins, 38, as its Week 1 starter, with No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza out of Indiana second on the depth chart and Aidan O'Connell third. Miami lists Malik Willis, 27, as its starter ahead of Kyle McCord and Brady Cook, a room assembled after Tua Tagovailoa signed with Atlanta. Neither depth chart has a game of 2026 regular-season evidence behind it.
The 2025 splits favor the home side more than the raw records do. Las Vegas went 2-7 at home and 1-5 inside an AFC West where Denver finished 14-3 and the Chargers 11-6, so the schedule did real damage to that 3-14. Miami went 2-6 on the road and 3-9 against AFC opponents while going 4-1 against the NFC, and finished third in the AFC East behind a 14-3 New England team and a 12-5 Buffalo team. Miami's road and conference splits are the cleanest statistical argument for laying the points with the Raiders, and the 2-7 home record is the cleanest argument against it. Both teams also allowed roughly the same volume of points last year, 25.4 per game for Las Vegas and 24.9 for Miami, which is part of why the total sits above the combined scoring average.
This board carries no captured price history yet. The snapshot series reports zero ticks across every line and the price endpoint returns no series for any leg, so there is no open-to-now movement to report on either the moneyline or the spread. Ten player prop legs are listed and none of them are priced, so the props market on this game has not opened in any tradeable form. The Las Vegas Raiders hub and the Miami Dolphins hub carry the season-long markets that will price the same two rebuilds over a longer horizon.
When the Dolphins vs Raiders Market Resolves
The market resolves on the result of the game, kicking off at 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, September 13, 2026 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, with FOX carrying the broadcast. The moneyline pays the winning team's contract $1 per share and the losing team's $0. Every spread rung and every total rung settles against the official final score, including overtime. Kalshi and Polymarket both settle once the game is final and the result is official.
Key Dolphins vs Raiders Factors
- Quarterback certainty in Las Vegas: Kirk Cousins is the listed Week 1 starter with No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza second, and any change to that order before kickoff is the biggest single input to the 63c price.
- Miami's post-Tagovailoa room: Malik Willis opens ahead of Kyle McCord and Brady Cook, giving the Dolphins the less established of the two starting situations.
- Two first-year head coaches: Klint Kubiak in Las Vegas and Jeff Hafley in Miami both enter their first season in charge, which is why the market weights 2025 form lightly on both sides.
- The home record contradiction: Las Vegas went 2-7 at Allegiant Stadium in 2025 and is being priced as a home favorite of roughly three points.
- No cross-platform daylight: Kalshi and Polymarket sit at the same 63c and 38c on the moneyline, so the shopping edge that usually exists on a two-book game board is absent here.
- A total above both offenses: the market prices 41 total points against a 34.6 combined scoring average from 2025.
Related Dolphins vs Raiders Markets
The season-long versions of this same question trade on the Raiders playoff market and the Dolphins playoff market, both of which price these rebuilds over 17 games instead of one. The Super Bowl LXI champion board carries the full field, and the NFL prediction markets hub lists every game and futures market currently trading on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to the team that wins the game between the Miami Dolphins and the Las Vegas Raiders, scheduled for 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, September 13, 2026 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. The moneyline settles on the official final score, with the winning team's contract paying $1 per share and the losing team's paying $0. Spread contracts settle on the final margin and total contracts settle on the combined final score, both including overtime. Kalshi and Polymarket settle once the game is official. A postponement moves settlement to the rescheduled date, and a cancellation voids the contracts under each platform's game-market rules.
Key Factors
- Kirk Cousins is the listed Raiders Week 1 starter with No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza second on the depth chart
- Malik Willis opens ahead of Kyle McCord in Miami's quarterback room after Tua Tagovailoa signed with Atlanta
- First-year head coaches on both sides, Klint Kubiak in Las Vegas and Jeff Hafley in Miami, limit the signal from 2025 form
- Las Vegas went 2-7 at home in 2025 and is priced as a home favorite of roughly three points
- The most traded spread rung is Las Vegas -3.5 at about $14.1K, which triangulates the true line
- Kalshi and Polymarket agree to the cent on both moneyline legs, so there is no cross-platform price to shop
What are the current Dolphins vs Raiders odds?
As of September 5, 2026, the Las Vegas Raiders are the moneyline favorite at 63c and the Miami Dolphins are 38c, with Kalshi and Polymarket quoting identical prices on both legs. See the live board above for the current number.
Where can I trade the Dolphins vs Raiders market?
The game trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with about $163K in cumulative volume across the board. Kalshi carries the deeper ladder, including 37 spread rungs and a full total ladder that Polymarket does not fully mirror.
Who is favored in Dolphins vs Raiders?
Las Vegas is favored. The Raiders at 63c imply about a 63% chance to win and the Dolphins at 38c imply about 38%, with the sum above 100% reflecting platform margin. The spread ladder puts the same read at Las Vegas by roughly three points.
When does the Dolphins vs Raiders market resolve?
It resolves on the result of the game, which kicks off at 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, September 13, 2026 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. The moneyline, spread, and total all settle on the official final score once the game is complete.
What should I watch before Dolphins vs Raiders resolves?
Watch both depth charts. Las Vegas has Kirk Cousins ahead of No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza and Miami has Malik Willis ahead of Kyle McCord, and neither order has been tested in a 2026 regular-season game. Quarterback news is the most likely driver of movement between now and September 13.