Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders Odds: Raiders Favored
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Dolphins | — | — | 39% | 39% Kalshi |
▶Raiders | — | — | 65% | 65% Kalshi |
No player props available for this game.
No spread lines available.
No total (o/u) lines available.
The Las Vegas Raiders open as the home moneyline favorite over the Miami Dolphins in this Week 1 matchup on September 13, 2026, a notable read for a team that finished 3-14 in 2025 and hosts a Miami side that went 7-10. Both franchises rebuilt over the offseason with new head coaches and reshuffled quarterback rooms, so the opener prices projection over track record. The market trades on Kalshi with roughly $4.1K in volume; see the live board above for the current cross-platform prices.
The Raiders host the Dolphins to open the 2026 season with Las Vegas set as the moneyline favorite, an outcome built entirely on offseason change rather than 2025 results. Las Vegas finished 3-14 last year, the worst record in the league and good for the No. 1 overall pick, while Miami finished 7-10 and third in the AFC East. The board reflects two rebuilds meeting in Week 1, not two established rosters.
Dolphins vs Raiders Market Context
Las Vegas overhauled its leadership after a single season under Pete Carroll, firing him and hiring former Seattle offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. The Raiders spent the No. 1 overall pick on Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza and signed veteran Kirk Cousins in free agency, a pairing that gives Kubiak both a rookie of the future and a veteran he coached in Minnesota. The Week 1 starter under center is the central unknown for this line, and the market is pricing the direction of that room rather than a settled depth chart.
Miami tore down its own structure after four seasons under Mike McDaniel, hiring former Green Bay defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley as head coach and Jon-Eric Sullivan as general manager. The Dolphins released Tua Tagovailoa, who signed with the Atlanta Falcons, after he threw a career-high 15 interceptions in 14 games in 2025 and was benched for rookie Quinn Ewers. Miami enters the opener with an open quarterback competition and a first-year staff installing new systems on both sides of the ball.
The moneyline is the only market on the board, so there is no spread or total to cross-check the implied margin, and there is no Polymarket price to weigh against Kalshi. That single-platform, single-market structure is typical of an early-season game this far out, and the roughly $4.1K in volume is thin enough that the line can move on depth-chart news alone. The home-field edge plus a cleaner offseason narrative for Las Vegas is what carries the Raiders to the favorite side despite the 3-14 finish.
When the Dolphins vs Raiders Market Resolves
The market resolves on the outcome of the game, scheduled for September 13, 2026 with a 7:00 PM ET kickoff at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. The moneyline pays the team that wins the game; each side settles to $1 per share for a win and $0 for a loss once the game goes final. A postponement or cancellation defers settlement to the rescheduled date under Kalshi's game-market rules.
Key Dolphins vs Raiders Factors
- The Raiders quarterback decision between veteran Kirk Cousins and No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza is the single largest input to the Week 1 line.
- Miami's open quarterback competition after releasing Tua Tagovailoa, with Quinn Ewers among the candidates, leaves the Dolphins offense unsettled entering the opener.
- Both teams start first-year head coaches (Klint Kubiak in Las Vegas, Jeff Hafley in Miami), so 2025 form carries limited signal.
- Home field in Las Vegas is doing real work in the price, pushing a 3-14 team to the favorite side over a 7-10 opponent.
- The board is Kalshi-only with no Polymarket market, so there is no cross-platform price check and no spread or total to imply the margin.
- With roughly $4.1K in volume this far out, the line is sensitive to depth-chart and injury news before September 13.
Related Dolphins vs Raiders Markets
For the broader slate and season-long context, see the NFL prediction markets hub, the Las Vegas Raiders team page, and the Miami Dolphins team page. This game page is maintained by Genius Staff and refreshed as the line moves toward kickoff.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to the team that wins the game between the Miami Dolphins and Las Vegas Raiders, scheduled for September 13, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. The moneyline settles on the final score, with each team contract paying $1 per share for a win and $0 for a loss. Settlement occurs on Kalshi once the game is official. If the game is postponed, it settles on the rescheduled date; if canceled outright, contracts void per Kalshi's game-market rules.
Key Factors
- Raiders quarterback decision between Kirk Cousins and No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza is the largest input to the Week 1 line
- Miami's open quarterback competition after releasing Tua Tagovailoa, with Quinn Ewers in the mix
- First-year head coaches on both sides (Klint Kubiak in Las Vegas, Jeff Hafley in Miami) limit the signal from 2025 form
- Home field pushes a 3-14 Las Vegas team to the favorite side over a 7-10 Miami opponent
- Kalshi-only board with no Polymarket price and no spread or total to imply the margin
- Roughly $4.1K in volume this far out leaves the line sensitive to depth-chart and injury news
What are the current Dolphins vs Raiders odds?
As of July 2, 2026, the Las Vegas Raiders are the moneyline favorite at 65c on Kalshi, with the Miami Dolphins at 38c. See the live board above for the latest price.
Where can I trade the Dolphins vs Raiders market?
The game trades on Kalshi, with roughly $4.1K in volume as of early July 2026. There is no Polymarket market for this game yet, so the moneyline is single-platform.
Who is favored in Dolphins vs Raiders?
Las Vegas is favored. The Raiders at 65c imply about a 65% chance to win, while the Dolphins at 38c imply about 38%, with the gap above 100% reflecting the platform's margin.
When does the Dolphins vs Raiders market resolve?
It resolves on the outcome of the game on September 13, 2026, with a 7:00 PM ET kickoff at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. The moneyline settles on the final score once the game is official.
What should I watch before Dolphins vs Raiders resolves?
Watch both quarterback situations. Las Vegas must choose between Kirk Cousins and rookie Fernando Mendoza, and Miami has an open competition after releasing Tua Tagovailoa. Depth-chart clarity is the most likely driver of line movement before September 13.