Dolphins vs 49ers Prediction Market Odds, September 20, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Dolphins | +12.5 47%50% | O 46.5 44%44% | 6%5% | 6% Kalshi |
â–¶49ers | -12.5 53%50% | U 46.5 56%56% | 90%62% | 90% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Miami Dolphins | +12.5 | O 46.5 | 6% Kalshi | |
â–¶San Francisco 49ers | -12.5 | U 46.5 | 90% Kalshi |
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The San Francisco 49ers are a 90% moneyline favorite over the Miami Dolphins on both Kalshi and Polymarket as of September 16, with Miami at 12% on Kalshi and 11% on Polymarket. The spread market puts the coin flip at San Francisco -13.5 and the full-game total near 45 points. San Francisco (1-0) hosts Miami (0-1) at Levi's Stadium on Sunday, September 20 at 4:25 PM ET on FOX, and the game board has traded about $681,000 across both venues.
Week 1 set the terms
San Francisco opened 1-0 with a 27-7 win over the Los Angeles Rams at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on September 10, holding the Rams to a single touchdown. Miami opened 0-1 after a 27-13 loss at the Las Vegas Raiders on September 13, a 14-point margin that lines up almost exactly with where this spread market is centered. The market is pricing a second straight lopsided result for both clubs: San Francisco's full-season read lives on the 49ers team hub, and Miami's on the Dolphins team hub.
Moneyline: both books agree at 90%
Kalshi and Polymarket both price San Francisco at 90% as of September 16. Miami is 12% on Kalshi and 11% on Polymarket, so the two sides sum to 101% to 102%, the normal overround for a heavy favorite. There is no cross-platform gap worth trading on the winner market: a Miami backer gets the better price on Polymarket at 11%, a 1-point edge over Kalshi, and a 49ers backer pays 90% on either venue.
Spread: the market centers on San Francisco -13.5
The spread ladder is deep and the two books track each other within 3 points on every line where both quote a price. San Francisco -13.5 is the coin flip at 49% on Kalshi and 50% on Polymarket. Moving down the ladder, San Francisco -10.5 trades at 57.5% (58% Kalshi, 57% Polymarket), -7.5 at 64%, -6.5 at 71%, and -3.5 at 78.5%. At the other end, -16.5 is 40.5% and -20.5 is 29%. The -12.5 rung is the one place the two venues split: Kalshi has San Francisco covering at 53%, Polymarket at 50%. The Miami side of the ladder is thin by design: Miami winning by more than 1.5 points is 12% on both books, which matches the moneyline.
Total: about 45 points, weighted toward San Francisco
The full-game total centers between 44.5 and 45.5. Over 44.5 trades at 51.5% (51% Kalshi, 52% Polymarket) and over 45.5 at 48% on both books, so 45 is the market's median. Over 47.5 drops to 41.5% and over 49.5 to 36%. The team totals split that number unevenly: Kalshi prices San Francisco over 28.5 points at 55% and over 29.5 at 51%, while Miami over 16.5 is 48% on both venues and over 14.5 is 56% on Kalshi. That adds up to roughly a 30-16 game, which is the same two-touchdown margin the spread ladder implies.
Line movement in the captures we have
The snapshot series runs from late on September 15 through the evening of September 16 ET. Across that window the 49ers moneyline traded between 89% and 90% on both Kalshi and Polymarket and finished where it started at 90%. Miami held at 12% on Kalshi and 11% on Polymarket in every capture. San Francisco -13.5 ranged from 49% to 50% on Kalshi and sat at 50% on Polymarket. The board has not moved in the first day of Week 2 trading.
For the rest of the Week 2 slate, see today's NFL games and the NFL markets hub. Season-long context is in our 49ers win total analysis and our Dolphins win total analysis.
Resolution Criteria
The moneyline markets resolve to the team that wins the Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers game scheduled for Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 4:25 PM ET at Levi's Stadium, based on the official final score including any overtime. Spread markets resolve on the final margin (for example, San Francisco -13.5 resolves Yes only if the 49ers win by 14 or more points), and total markets resolve on the combined final points scored by both teams. Team total markets resolve on each team's own final points. Each venue settles its contracts under its own rules once the game is official; if the game is postponed or canceled, the platform's rules for rescheduled or voided events apply.
Key Factors
- San Francisco is 90% to win on both Kalshi and Polymarket as of September 16, with Miami at 12% on Kalshi and 11% on Polymarket
- San Francisco -13.5 is the spread coin flip at 49% on Kalshi and 50% on Polymarket, close to Miami's 14-point Week 1 loss at Las Vegas
- The full-game total is centered near 45: over 44.5 trades at 51.5% and over 45.5 at 48%
- Team totals imply roughly a 30-16 game: San Francisco over 28.5 is 55% on Kalshi, Miami over 16.5 is 48% on both books
- Week 1 form: the 49ers beat the Rams 27-7 in Melbourne, the Dolphins lost 27-13 at the Raiders
- The moneyline held at 89% to 90% for the 49ers across every capture from September 15 to September 16
What are the Dolphins vs 49ers odds?
As of September 16, 2026, the San Francisco 49ers are 90% to win on both Kalshi and Polymarket. The Miami Dolphins are 12% on Kalshi and 11% on Polymarket. Prices move, so check the live board above for the current numbers.
Where can I trade Dolphins vs 49ers?
The game trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket. The board includes the moneyline, a full spread ladder, full-game totals, and team totals, with about $681,000 traded across both venues.
What is the spread for Dolphins vs 49ers?
The prediction market spread centers on San Francisco -13.5, which traded at 49% on Kalshi and 50% on Polymarket on September 16. San Francisco -10.5 was 57.5% and -16.5 was 40.5%.
What is the over/under for Dolphins vs 49ers?
The full-game total is centered near 45 points. On September 16, over 44.5 traded at 51.5% and over 45.5 at 48% across Kalshi and Polymarket.
When and where is Dolphins vs 49ers?
The game kicks off Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 4:25 PM ET at Levi's Stadium, broadcast on FOX. It is an NFL Week 2 game between the Miami Dolphins (0-1) and the San Francisco 49ers (1-0).
When do the Dolphins vs 49ers markets resolve?
The markets settle once the September 20 game is final. The moneyline pays the winner including overtime, spreads settle on the final margin, and totals settle on combined points scored.