Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears Prediction Market Odds, September 20, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Vikings | +5.5 55%54% | O 48.5 49%50% | 35%35% | 35% Kalshi |
â–¶Bears | -5.5 45%46% | U 48.5 51%50% | 66%66% | 66% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Minnesota Vikings | +5.5 | O 48.5 | 35% Kalshi | |
â–¶Chicago Bears | -5.5 | U 48.5 | 66% Kalshi |
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The Vikings vs Bears market has Chicago as the home favorite at 66 percent on both Kalshi and Polymarket as of the September 16 capture, with Minnesota at 35 percent on both books. Both NFC North teams are 1-0 after Week 1, and the board carries roughly $521,000 in volume across two platforms ahead of the 1:00 PM ET kickoff at Soldier Field on Sunday, September 20, 2026.
Chicago is priced as a clear but not heavy home favorite in this Week 2 NFC North game: 66 percent on both Kalshi and Polymarket against 35 percent for Minnesota, a two-sided total of 101 on each book. Both teams enter 1-0. The Bears won 59-37 at Carolina in Week 1 and the Vikings beat Green Bay 39-22 at U.S. Bank Stadium, per ESPN. Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on FOX at Soldier Field, and the board carries about $521,000 in volume.
Vikings vs Bears Market Context
The two books agree to the point on the moneyline, so there is no cross-platform edge on the winner as of the September 16 capture. A 66 percent price implies Chicago wins roughly two times in three, which is the standard shape for a home team in a division game when both sides opened the season with a win.
Week 1 scoring is the context the total is working from. The Bears game produced 96 combined points and the Vikings game produced 61, both well above an ordinary NFL total. The market has not simply extrapolated those shootouts; it centers this game in the high 40s (see below), well below either Week 1 result.
What the Vikings vs Bears Spread and Total Say
The full-game spread ladder is quoted on both books with at most two points of difference on any rung. Chicago -3.5 is 52 percent on both Kalshi and Polymarket and Chicago -4.5 is 49 percent on both, so the market spread sits at roughly Bears by 4. Chicago -1.5 is 63.5 percent (64 percent Kalshi, 63 percent Polymarket) and Chicago -7.5 is 38.5 percent (39 percent Kalshi, 38 percent Polymarket), meaning the market gives the Bears close to a two-in-five chance of winning by a touchdown or more. On the other side, Minnesota -1.5 is 31.5 percent (32 percent Kalshi, 31 percent Polymarket) and Minnesota -3.5 is 25 percent on both.
On the game total, over 47.5 points is 53.5 percent (53 percent Kalshi, 54 percent Polymarket) and over 48.5 is 49.5 percent (49 percent Kalshi, 50 percent Polymarket), which pins the expected combined score at about 48.5 points. Over 45.5 is 58.5 percent and over 51.5 is 39.5 percent. The widest split between the two books on the listed totals is two points, at over 42.5 (69 percent Kalshi, 67 percent Polymarket).
On movement, this board carries no snapshot history yet: neither the board nor the price-history endpoint returned any captured ticks as of September 16, so there is no open-to-now move to report. That is an absence of captures, not a flat line.
When the Vikings vs Bears Market Resolves
The moneyline resolves to the winner of the Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears game on Sunday, September 20, 2026 at Soldier Field, settled on Kalshi and Polymarket once the game is final. Spread and total contracts settle on the final score, including overtime.
Key Vikings vs Bears Catalysts
Division stakes: both teams are 1-0, so the winner moves to 2-0 with a division win already banked.
Week 1 scoring: the Bears scored 59 at Carolina and the Vikings scored 39 against Green Bay, and the total at about 48.5 prices in a much lower game than either.
The key number: the spread centers between Chicago -3.5 (52 percent) and -4.5 (49 percent), so a field goal margin is the most important single outcome for spread holders.
Cross-platform parity: the moneyline is identical on both books at 66 and 35 percent, and no full-game spread or total rung differs by more than two points.
Home field: Chicago hosts at Soldier Field after opening on the road, while Minnesota travels after a home opener.
Related Vikings vs Bears Markets
For season-long context, the Chicago Bears team hub and the Minnesota Vikings team hub track every market on each club, and the NFC North division market prices the race this game feeds. The full slate lives on the NFL league hub and today's NFL board.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to the team that wins the Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears game scheduled for 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 20, 2026 at Soldier Field. Each winning team contract pays $1 per share and the losing side resolves to $0. Spread contracts (Chicago -1.5 through -20.5 and Minnesota -1.5 through -14.5) and total contracts (the over rungs from 27.5 to 63.5 points) settle on the final score including overtime, and first-half and second-half contracts settle on the score of the relevant half. Kalshi and Polymarket settle once the game is final. If the game is postponed or canceled, each platform applies its own postponement and void rules, which generally move settlement to the completion date or cancel the contract.
Key Factors
- Both teams are 1-0, so the winner moves to 2-0 with an early NFC North win
- Chicago scored 59 at Carolina and Minnesota scored 39 against Green Bay in Week 1
- The spread centers near Bears by 4, with Chicago -3.5 at 52 percent and -4.5 at 49 percent
- The total centers at about 48.5 points, with over 48.5 at 49.5 percent
- Kalshi and Polymarket match on the moneyline at 66 and 35 percent, with no full-game spread or total rung more than two points apart
- No price snapshots captured on this board as of September 16, so movement is not yet measurable
What are the current Vikings vs Bears odds?
As of September 16, 2026, the Chicago Bears are 66 percent to win on both Kalshi and Polymarket and the Minnesota Vikings are 35 percent on both. The live board above carries the current prices.
When does the Vikings vs Bears market resolve?
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 20, 2026 at Soldier Field, on FOX. Contracts settle on Kalshi and Polymarket once the game is final, including any overtime.
Where can I trade the Vikings vs Bears game?
The moneyline, the full-game spread ladder and the game total trade on both Kalshi and Polymarket, and this page compares them side by side. First-half and second-half spreads are quoted on Polymarket only.
Who is favored in Vikings vs Bears?
The Chicago Bears are favored at an implied 66 percent at home. Both teams are 1-0 after Chicago won 59-37 at Carolina and Minnesota beat Green Bay 39-22.
What are the Vikings vs Bears spread and total?
Chicago -3.5 is 52 percent and Chicago -4.5 is 49 percent, which puts the market spread near Bears by 4. Over 48.5 points is 49.5 percent, centering the total at about 48.5.