Seahawks vs Chiefs Preseason Prediction Market Odds, August 28, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Seahawks | +1.5 52%52% | O 15.5 93% | 48%47% | 48% Kalshi |
â–¶Chiefs | -1.5 48%48% | U 15.5 7% | 52%53% | 53% Polymarket |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Seattle Seahawks | +1.5 | O 15.5 | 48% Kalshi | |
â–¶Kansas City Chiefs | -1.5 | U 15.5 | 53% Polymarket |
No player props available for this game.
Neither side has told anyone who is playing, and that is the whole market. Seattle and Kansas City both arrive at Arrowhead 0-2 for the final preseason tune-up, and the board prices it as close to a coin flip as a two-way market gets, with roughly $12.2K of lifetime volume behind a moneyline that Kalshi and Polymarket agree on to within a cent. Kickoff is 8:00 PM ET on Friday, August 28. Current prices are on the live board above.
This is the last preseason game either team plays, which makes it the least predictive football on the calendar. Seattle and Kansas City are both 0-2 this preseason, both have held their established starters out of most or all of it, and both will spend Friday night sorting the back half of a 90-man roster before the cut to 53. The market reflects that honestly: the Chiefs sit barely above 50% on a home field they have not won on this August, and the two books are separated by a single cent. Nothing that happens at Arrowhead on Friday carries into September.
Seahawks vs Chiefs Preseason Market Context
As of midday August 26, Kansas City is the 52.5c side on the merged moneyline (52c Kalshi, 53c Polymarket) and Seattle is 47.5c (48c Kalshi, 47c Polymarket). Both books price the two outcomes to exactly 100 across the pair, so there is no meaningful cross-platform disagreement to read into here, just a one-cent difference in where each venue's book is sitting. The moneyline is the only genuinely two-sided row on the board: Seattle's side carries about $7.4K of lifetime volume and Kansas City's about $3.1K, and the rest of the ladder is thin.
The snapshot series this board carries runs roughly 24 hours, from midday Tuesday to midday Wednesday, so any movement claim is scoped to that window. Inside it, Kalshi's Chiefs line printed 52c on all 38 captures without moving once. Polymarket drifted the other way by a cent, from 52c to 53c on Kansas City and from 49c to 47c on Seattle. That is drift, not a move, and it is what a market looks like when the participants are waiting on information that has not been released.
The form both teams bring is preseason form, which is to say it is a record of who their backups played against whose backups. Kansas City lost 20-12 to the Rams at home on August 15, then lost 16-15 at Tampa Bay on August 22 in a one-point game decided late. Seattle lost 17-7 to Dallas on August 15 and 19-16 at Tennessee on Sunday night, August 23, in a game the Seahawks led into the fourth quarter. Neither 0-2 means anything about either roster.
The spread and total tell you more about the shape of the game than the moneyline does. Kansas City at -1.5 trades at 48c on both venues, which is the market saying a one-score preseason game is close to even money in either direction, and it matches the DraftKings number of Kansas City -1.5 with the Chiefs at -124 on the moneyline. The total is the interesting row. The O/U 36.5 line sits at 51c on both books, but the four preseason games these two teams have played have averaged 30.5 combined points, and their own scoring rates (13.5 per game for Kansas City, 11.5 for Seattle) add to 25.0. The over is priced above the pace either offense has actually run this month. Weather is not the argument against it either: ESPN's forecast for Arrowhead is 81 degrees, no precipitation, gusts to 13 mph on grass.
Seahawks vs Chiefs Preseason Participation Is the Variable the Board Cannot Price
Patrick Mahomes has not thrown a preseason pass. He does not appear in either Kansas City box score, and ESPN's report listed him Questionable on August 23 with a knee designation tied to ACL surgery. Every Chiefs preseason snap at quarterback has gone to rookie Garrett Nussmeier (9-of-17 for 74 yards at Tampa Bay), Justin Fields (9-of-12 for 64 yards at Tampa Bay, 4-of-4 for 41 against the Rams) and Chris Oladokun. Kansas City's leading rusher in the Tampa Bay game was Brashard Smith with 6 carries for 37 yards, and Kenneth Walker III appeared last in that game's rushing list before being listed Questionable with a foot issue on August 25.
Seattle's picture is the same shape. Exactly two quarterbacks have thrown a pass for the Seahawks this preseason: Drew Lock, who was 12-of-14 for 103 yards and a touchdown at Tennessee, and Jalen Milroe. Sam Darnold is on the active roster and has not attempted a preseason pass. Zach Charbonnet has not carried the ball in either game. The Seahawks who have produced are the ones fighting for jobs: Jacardia Wright ran 8 times for 81 yards at Tennessee and Elijah Arroyo caught 2 balls for 50 yards and a score.
The injury lists thin both sides further. Seattle has Bud Clark (ankle fracture), Mason Richman (leg), Jake Bobo (knee) and Joseph Vaughn on injured reserve, with Rodney Thomas II Questionable after hand surgery. Kansas City has Jeff Caldwell on injured reserve with a knee issue and lists Tyreke Smith (hamstring) and Alohi Gilman (back) as Questionable alongside Walker.
Neither club had published a confirmed participation plan for Friday at the time of writing, and that is the honest limit of what can be said here. A team that is better on paper can be the underdog on who dresses, and in a final preseason week the roster that plays is mostly the roster that is auditioning. Rosters go from 90 to 53 in the days immediately after this game, the preseason closes league-wide on Saturday, August 29, and the regular season does not open until September 9.
When the Seahawks vs Chiefs Preseason Market Resolves
The moneyline resolves on the winner of the game at Arrowhead Stadium on Friday, August 28. Kalshi's rules for this event are explicit about the case that preseason football actually produces: if the game ends in a tie, each side resolves at 50c, and Polymarket's rules resolve the same market 50-50 on a tie or a cancellation with no make-up. That is a live outcome rather than a technicality, because preseason games do not go to overtime. Kalshi's expected settlement is late Friday evening ET with markets scheduled to close on Sunday, August 30, and both venues keep the market open through a postponement of up to 48 hours.
Key Seahawks vs Chiefs Preseason Catalysts
Starter participation: Mahomes has zero preseason snaps and is listed Questionable with a knee designation, and Darnold has not thrown a pass for Seattle, so the announced inactives are the single largest price input.
Quarterback rotation depth: Kansas City has used three passers (Nussmeier, Fields, Oladokun) and Seattle two (Lock, Milroe), and how early each team goes to its third-teamer shapes both the spread and the total.
The total against actual pace: the over 36.5 trades at 51c while these teams' four preseason games have averaged 30.5 combined points and their own offenses have combined for 25.0 per game.
Roster-cut incentive: this is the last live evaluation before the 90-to-53 cut, so effort from bubble players runs high and continuity runs low.
Thin two-sided liquidity: only the moneyline is priced on both venues, with roughly $12.2K of lifetime volume on the board, so a single sized order moves the quote more than the news does.
Related Seahawks vs Chiefs Preseason Markets
For the rest of this team's board, the Kansas City Chiefs hub and the Seattle Seahawks hub carry every active market on each club, and the NFL market index collects the full league board including the other preseason finales such as Commanders at Ravens on the same night. The season-long markets are context only and this result does not move them: the Chiefs playoff market and the Seahawks playoff market both resolve on regular-season outcomes that begin in September and take no input from a preseason score.
Resolution Criteria
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the preseason game at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City on Friday, August 28, 2026, scheduled for 8:00 PM ET. Each winning team contract pays $1 per share and the losing side resolves to $0. Because NFL preseason games do not go to overtime, a tie is a live outcome: Kalshi's rules resolve each team contract at 50c in that case, and Polymarket resolves the market 50-50 on a tie or on a cancellation with no make-up game. The spread market settles on the final margin (Kansas City -1.5 pays if the Chiefs win by 2 or more) and the total settles on combined points, with over 36.5 requiring 37 or more. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the scheduled kickoff, both venues keep the market open and settle on the official final result. Kalshi's expected settlement is late Friday evening ET, with the market scheduled to close Sunday, August 30, 2026.
Key Factors
- Patrick Mahomes has zero preseason snaps and is listed Questionable with a knee designation tied to ACL surgery
- Sam Darnold has not attempted a preseason pass for Seattle, whose only two passers have been Drew Lock and Jalen Milroe
- Over 36.5 trades at 51c while these teams' four preseason games have averaged 30.5 combined points
- Kansas City -1.5 sits at 48c on both venues and matches the DraftKings line of Chiefs -1.5, -124
- Roster cuts from 90 to 53 land days after this game, so bubble players play the most snaps
- Only the moneyline is priced on both books, on roughly $12.2K of lifetime board volume
What are the current Seahawks vs Chiefs preseason odds?
As of midday on August 26, 2026, Kansas City is the 52.5c side of the moneyline (52c on Kalshi, 53c on Polymarket) and Seattle is 47.5c (48c Kalshi, 47c Polymarket). The live board above carries the current prices.
When does the Seahawks vs Chiefs preseason market resolve?
It resolves on the final score of the game at Arrowhead Stadium on Friday, August 28, 2026, with kickoff at 8:00 PM ET. Kalshi expects to settle late that evening, with the market scheduled to close on Sunday, August 30, 2026.
Where can I trade the Seahawks vs Chiefs preseason market?
Both Kalshi and Polymarket list the moneyline, which is why it is the one two-sided row on the board with about $12.2K of lifetime volume. Kalshi additionally lists the full spread ladder from 1.5 to 16.5 points and totals from 15.5 to 57.5 points.
Who is favored in the Seahawks vs Chiefs preseason game?
Kansas City is the marginal favorite at an implied 52.5%, and DraftKings has the Chiefs at -1.5 and -124. Both teams are 0-2 this preseason, and Kansas City has lost both of its games, 20-12 to the Rams and 16-15 at Tampa Bay.
What happens if the Seahawks vs Chiefs preseason game ends in a tie?
Preseason games do not go to overtime, so a tie is possible. Kalshi resolves each team contract at 50c in that case and Polymarket resolves the market 50-50, the same treatment it applies to a cancellation with no make-up game.
What should I watch before the Seahawks vs Chiefs preseason game kicks off?
The participation list is the only input that matters. Patrick Mahomes has not thrown a preseason pass and Sam Darnold has not either, so confirmation of which quarterbacks dress, plus the status of Kenneth Walker III (foot, Questionable as of August 25), will move this board more than anything else.