The 2026 Russia Parliamentary Election market asks which party wins the most seats in the next State Duma. It carries roughly $1.3M in cumulative volume and is currently listed on Polymarket, with United Russia the overwhelming favorite and a long tail of opposition parties priced as distant alternatives. The live board above ranks the current cross-platform prices on every listed party. The market resolves on the September 2026 State Duma results, with a backstop resolution date of September 30, 2027.
The 2026 Russia Parliamentary Election is a multi-outcome market on which political party wins the greatest number of seats in the next State Duma, the lower house of the Federal Assembly. Six parties are listed: United Russia (ER), New People (NL), the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF), the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), Rodina, and Civic Platform (GP). The board carries roughly $1.3M in cumulative volume and is currently listed on Polymarket as a single-platform market. The live board above shows the current price on each party.
United Russia is the governing party and the dominant entry on the 2026 Russia Parliamentary Election market. It has held a controlling majority in the State Duma across the last several election cycles, and the market prices it as the clear front-runner to again win the most seats. The trading interest on this market is concentrated almost entirely on the United Russia contract, which accounts for nearly all of the recent 24-hour volume. Because the question is about seat count rather than vote share, United Russia's structural advantages in the Russian electoral system, including incumbency and access to administrative resources, are central to how the market reads the race. See the live board above for United Russia's current price.
The remaining five parties trade as distant alternatives on the 2026 Russia Parliamentary Election board. New People (NL) is the newest of the listed parties and entered the Duma in the previous cycle. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) has historically been the largest opposition bloc by seat count, and the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) is another long-standing parliamentary party. Rodina and Civic Platform (GP) round out the field as smaller entries. Each of these parties is priced well below United Russia, reflecting how concentrated the seat-count expectation is at the top. The market's resolution rules also account for coalitions: if a listed party runs as part of a jointly listed coalition, its contract represents the coalition and counts all seats won collectively. The live board above shows the current price on each opposition party.
The 2026 Russia Parliamentary Election market resolves based on the party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, scheduled for September 2026. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting, and in cases of ambiguity the official results reported by Russian government bodies such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, the market resolves to "Other." In the event of a tie for the most seats, the party with more valid votes wins, and a further tie is broken by the party whose listed abbreviation comes first alphabetically.
For other national legislative races, compare the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election odds and the 2026 Berlin parliamentary election odds, both of which trade as multi-party seat-count markets. Browse the full politics prediction markets hub for elections, legislation, and policy contracts across every region. This page is maintained by Genius Staff, which curates and refreshes Prediction Genius market reference pages as prices and contender sets move.
Resolves to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, scheduled for September 2026. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting, and where reporting is ambiguous, on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, the market resolves to "Other." In a tie for the most seats, the party with more valid votes wins; a remaining tie is broken in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first alphabetically. If a listed party contests the election within a jointly listed coalition, its contract represents that coalition and counts all seats won collectively.
United Russia (ER) is the overwhelming favorite to win the most State Duma seats, with New People, KPRF, LDPR, Rodina, and Civic Platform priced as distant alternatives. See the live board above for the current price on each of the six listed parties.
It resolves on the results of the next State Duma election, scheduled for September 2026. If the outcome is not known definitively by September 30, 2027, the market resolves to "Other."
This market is currently listed on Polymarket as a single-platform market across the six parties, carrying roughly $1.3M in cumulative volume. No Kalshi listing is currently paired to it.
United Russia (ER), the governing party, is the clear favorite to win the most seats. It has held a controlling State Duma majority across recent cycles, and nearly all of the market's trading volume sits on the United Russia contract.
Watch confirmation of the September 2026 voting schedule, any opposition seat-count gains among KPRF, LDPR, or New People, and coalition or joint-list arrangements, since a listed party's contract counts all seats won by its coalition collectively.