Kamaka vs Riley Prediction Market Odds, July 11, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶III | — | O 0.5 80% | 34%34% | 34% Kalshi |
▶Riley | — | U 0.5 20% | 68%67% | 68% Kalshi |
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Luke Riley walks into UFC 329 undefeated at 13-0 with nine knockouts, and the prediction market treats the 27-year-old English featherweight as the clear favorite over Kai Kamaka III, the 33-year-old Hawaiian veteran at 18-7-1. Kalshi and Polymarket agree on the read with almost no daylight between them, the mark of an efficient market. The two-way moneyline plus a Polymarket round total anchor the board, with live prices above. The fight opens the UFC 329 prelims on July 11, 2026, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, under the McGregor vs Holloway 2 main event.
Luke Riley is the reason this featherweight prelim opens the UFC 329 card with real market conviction. The 27-year-old English prospect is a perfect 13-0 with nine knockouts, and both Kalshi and Polymarket price him as the clear favorite over Kai Kamaka III, a 33-year-old Hawaiian veteran carrying an 18-7-1 record and a decision-heavy, grind-it-out style. The two books sit right on top of each other on the moneyline, which tells you the market sees little ambiguity in this one. Roughly $84K in volume has moved across the two platforms.
Kamaka vs Riley Market Context
The moneyline read is a young finisher against a durable veteran. Riley arrives unbeaten, having knocked out Bogdan Grad and then taken a decision over Michael Aswell Jr. in March 2026, a run that pairs pace and accuracy with genuine stopping power (nine of his 13 wins are knockouts). The market is pricing that finishing threat, not just the record. Kamaka III is the live underdog on experience: at 18-7-1 he has seen every kind of round, most recently a split-decision win over Dakota Hope in April 2026, and his path is to survive Riley's early output and turn the fight into the kind of decision he is comfortable in.
The cross-platform picture is the tell here. Kalshi and Polymarket land on the same favorite with almost no daylight between their prices, so there is no arbitrage gap to exploit and no disagreement between the books on who wins. That is what an efficient market on a well-scouted prospect looks like: the edge, if there is one, is in the method and the rounds, not the moneyline. Check the live board above for the current cross-platform prices.
The Kamaka vs Riley Round Total
Polymarket also lists a round total on the fight, and it is the more interesting market. The deeper line, whether the bout clears 2.5 rounds, sits near a coin flip (Polymarket prices the over around 65%), a direct read on the central question: does Riley's knockout power end it early, or does Kamaka's chin and decision-heavy style drag it into the later rounds of a three-round fight. Kalshi does not post the round total, so this one is Polymarket-only and carries no cross-platform check. It is the market that rewards a real opinion on the styles rather than the names.
When the Kamaka vs Riley Market Resolves
The market resolves when the featherweight bout is decided at UFC 329 on July 11, 2026, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Kamaka III and Riley are scheduled to open the preliminary card, hours before the McGregor vs Holloway 2 main event closes the night. The moneyline settles on the official result, by knockout, submission, or decision.
Key Kamaka vs Riley Fight Factors
- Luke Riley's undefeated 13-0 record and nine knockouts, the finishing threat that drives his favorite status.
- Kai Kamaka III's durable, decision-heavy veteran profile at 18-7-1 as the path to an upset or a long fight.
- The round total: Polymarket prices the fight to clear the deeper rounds near a coin flip, a read on Riley finishing early versus the fight going the distance.
- Cross-platform agreement: Kalshi and Polymarket align on Riley as favorite with almost no spread, an efficient and tightly priced market.
- Recent form: Riley stopped Bogdan Grad and outpointed Michael Aswell Jr., while Kamaka took a split decision over Dakota Hope in April 2026.
- Card placement: the bout opens the UFC 329 prelims at T-Mobile Arena under the McGregor vs Holloway 2 headliner.
Related UFC 329 Markets
The full UFC 329 card is headlined by Conor McGregor's return against Max Holloway, and the UFC 329 main card tracks every fight on the slate across Kalshi and Polymarket. For the broader board of live game and futures markets, the sports hub collects every league and event we cover.
Resolution Criteria
The market resolves to the fighter who wins the featherweight bout between Kai Kamaka III and Luke Riley at UFC 329 on July 11, 2026, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The moneyline settles when the result is official, whether by knockout, submission, or decision, with each fighter contract paying out if he wins and going to zero if he loses. If the bout is ruled a draw or no contest, or is canceled or postponed past the scheduled date, the market resolves per each platform UFC rules, which typically void or refund the moneyline.
Key Factors
- Luke Riley undefeated 13-0 record and nine knockouts, the finishing threat driving his favorite status
- Kai Kamaka III durable, decision-heavy veteran profile at 18-7-1 as the path to an upset or a long fight
- The Polymarket round total, which prices the fight to clear the deeper rounds near a coin flip
- Cross-platform agreement: Kalshi and Polymarket align on Riley as favorite with almost no spread
- Recent form: Riley stopped Bogdan Grad and outpointed Michael Aswell Jr. in March 2026
- Card placement: the bout opens the UFC 329 prelims under the McGregor vs Holloway 2 headliner
What are the current Kamaka vs Riley odds?
As of July 11, 2026, Luke Riley is the moneyline favorite at 69c (69c on Kalshi, 69c on Polymarket) and Kai Kamaka III sits at 33c (34c Kalshi, 32c Polymarket).
Where can I trade the Kamaka vs Riley market?
On Kalshi and Polymarket. Both books list a two-way moneyline on the fight, and their prices land within a couple of points of each other. Polymarket also posts a round total that Kalshi does not.
Who is the Kamaka vs Riley favorite?
Luke Riley, the undefeated English prospect at 13-0 with nine knockouts. The market prices him as the clear favorite over the 33-year-old Hawaiian veteran Kai Kamaka III, who is 18-7-1.
When does the Kamaka vs Riley market resolve?
When the featherweight bout is decided at UFC 329 on July 11, 2026, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The moneyline settles on the official result by knockout, submission, or decision.
What should I watch before Kamaka vs Riley resolves?
The round total. Polymarket prices the fight to clear 2.5 rounds around 65%, so the question is whether Riley knockout power ends it early or Kamaka decision-heavy durability pushes it deep.