Terrance Chatman vs Anthony Wint Prediction Market Odds, August 22, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Chatman | — | O 0.5 — | 0%0% | — |
Wint | — | U 0.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Terrance Chatman | — | O 0.5 — | 0%0% | — |
Anthony Wint | — | U 0.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
Anthony Wint is 7-0 with four wins inside 45 seconds, and the Chatman vs Wint board prices him at 92c (95c Kalshi, 89c Polymarket) against Terrance Chatman at 12c on both books. The heavyweight bout on UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento carries $38.3K of lifetime volume across the two exchanges, and neither fighter has a prior UFC bout on record.
Anthony Wint is 7-0 as a professional and has ended four of those seven fights in under 45 seconds, and the Chatman vs Wint board prices that record exactly the way you would expect. Wint trades at 92c (95c Kalshi, 89c Polymarket) and Terrance Chatman sits at 12c on both books. The heavyweight bout is on UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento on August 22, 2026, it carries $38.3K of lifetime volume across the two exchanges, and neither man has a prior UFC fight in ESPN's records. This is a debut against a debut with a 35-pound weight gap and a 92c favorite.
Chatman vs Wint Market Context
Wint (7-0-0) is listed by ESPN at 5 feet 11 inches and 231 lbs, age 30, with five wins by knockout or technical knockout and one by submission. He fought 11 days ago, taking Dana White's Contender Series Season 10 Week 1 on August 11, 2026 with a first-round finish of Matt Adams at 0:34. Three of his other wins ended at 0:21, 0:37 and 0:43. Only two went past the second round: a three-round decision over Omar El-Sahlah at Fury FC 103 on March 23, 2025 and a three-round win over Emmanuel Verdier at XFC on June 25, 2025. An 11-day turnaround into a UFC debut is the single most unusual fact on this board, and the price does not discount it.
Chatman (5-1-0), who fights as The Answer, is the larger man at 6 feet 2 inches and 266 lbs, age 29. Four of his five wins came by knockout or technical knockout and none by submission. He last fought at Fury FC 121 on July 19, 2026, finishing Juan Torres in round one at 3:32. The fight before that is his only loss, a five-round decision to Myron Dennis at Fury FC 118 on April 12, 2026, and it is the only time in his career he has been past round three. Polymarket lists this bout as a prelim, while ESPN's card schedule places it at the top of the 8:00 PM ET block that follows a seven-fight segment starting at 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+.
The two men share an opponent. Chatman finished Omar El-Sahlah in 21 seconds at Fury FC 113 on January 18, 2026. Wint beat the same fighter by three-round decision at Fury FC 103 ten months earlier. That is one fight each, ten months apart, against a common name, and it is the one line in the records that argues with a 12c underdog. The market is not pricing it.
The cross-platform read is book width, not disagreement. Backing Wint costs 89c on Polymarket against 95c on Kalshi, a 6c gap, but Kalshi's two fighter contracts sum to 107c while Polymarket's sum to 101c. That 6c is the Kalshi quote being wide on a thin heavyweight undercard fight, not a different opinion about who wins, and both books agree on Chatman at 12c. Volume says the same thing: the Kalshi Chatman contract carries $29.5K of lifetime turnover against $3.9K on the Wint side, which is what a book looks like when the traffic is in the cheap longshot rather than the chalk.
The moneyline has not moved inside the snapshot series this board carries. Polymarket held Wint at 89c across all 12 captures we hold for August 22, running from 00:11 UTC to 11:04 UTC, and our single Kalshi capture in that window printed 95c. The movement showed up in the round total instead: Over 0.5 Rounds sat at 62c, dropped to 52c at 07:13 UTC, and was back at 62c within 25 minutes, a thin book reprinting rather than a repricing.
Polymarket is the only exchange carrying round and method markets on this fight. Over 0.5 Rounds is 62c, so the market gives a 38% chance the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of round one. Over 1.5 Rounds is 30c. Wint by knockout or technical knockout is 77c, a submission finish of either man is 16c, and the fight going the distance is 12c. Read together, the props expect a finish, expect Wint to be the one delivering it, and expect it to last longer than his last three fights did. The main event, Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues, carries roughly twelve times this board's volume.
When the Chatman vs Wint Market Resolves
The market settles when the UFC declares an official winner of the heavyweight bout on August 22, 2026 at Golden 1 Center. Kalshi lists the two fighter contracts under its KXUFCFIGHT event for this fight, with expected expiration the morning after the card. Polymarket's rules resolve the market 50-50 if the bout is a draw or technical draw, is ruled a no contest, is not scored, or is canceled or postponed beyond September 5, 2026.
Key Chatman vs Wint Catalysts
Turnaround: Wint won on the August 11, 2026 Contender Series card in 34 seconds and returns 11 days later for his UFC debut.
Size: Chatman is listed 35 lbs heavier and three inches taller at 266 lbs and 6 feet 2 inches.
Common opponent: Chatman finished Omar El-Sahlah in 21 seconds, Wint needed three full rounds against the same fighter.
Book width: The 6c gap on Wint (95c Kalshi, 89c Polymarket) sits on a Kalshi pair summing to 107c, so the cheaper side to back Wint is Polymarket.
Finish expectation: Over 0.5 Rounds at 62c and Wint by knockout or technical knockout at 77c frame how the market expects this ends.
Related Chatman vs Wint Markets
The other heavyweight bouts on the same card are the closest comparables: Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino and Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev, both of which trade far heavier than this one. The light heavyweight co-feature, Roman Dolidze vs Reinier de Ridder, is the sharpest board on the card outside the main event. Every fight on this slate and the rest of the day's cross-platform boards are on the sports hub.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to the fighter officially declared the winner of the heavyweight bout between Terrance Chatman and Anthony Wint at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues on August 22, 2026 at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento. The winning fighter contract pays $1 per share and the losing contract settles at $0, with official UFC information as the resolution source. Kalshi carries the two fighter contracts under its KXUFCFIGHT event for this bout and expects expiration the morning after the card. Polymarket resolves the market 50-50 if the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, is ruled a no contest, is not scored, or is canceled or postponed beyond September 5, 2026. The Polymarket round totals settle on the round and time of the official stoppage, and the method markets settle on the official result type.
Key Factors
- Anthony Wint won on the August 11, 2026 Contender Series card in 34 seconds and returns 11 days later for his UFC debut
- Terrance Chatman is listed 35 lbs heavier and three inches taller at 266 lbs and 6 feet 2 inches
- Common opponent Omar El-Sahlah: Chatman finished him in 21 seconds, Wint won a three-round decision
- Cross-platform gap of 6c on Wint (95c Kalshi, 89c Polymarket) on a Kalshi pair whose two sides sum to 107c
- Over 0.5 Rounds at 62c and Wint by knockout or technical knockout at 77c set the finish expectation
- Neither fighter has a prior UFC bout in ESPN fight histories, so there is no octagon sample to price
What are the current Chatman vs Wint odds?
As of August 22, 2026, Anthony Wint is the 92c favorite on the two-book consensus, quoted at 95c on Kalshi and 89c on Polymarket. Terrance Chatman trades at 12c on both exchanges.
Where can I trade the Chatman vs Wint market?
Kalshi and Polymarket both list the fighter moneyline, and the board carries $38.3K of lifetime volume across the two. Polymarket additionally lists round totals and method-of-victory markets on this fight; Kalshi does not.
Who is favored in Chatman vs Wint and by how much?
Anthony Wint at 92c implies a win probability near 92%, against roughly 12% for Terrance Chatman. Wint is 7-0-0 with six finishes; Chatman is 5-1-0 with four knockout or technical knockout wins.
When does the Chatman vs Wint market resolve?
It settles once the UFC declares an official winner on the August 22, 2026 card at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento. Polymarket resolves 50-50 on a draw, a no contest, or a postponement beyond September 5, 2026.
What should I watch before Chatman vs Wint resolves?
Whether the 11-day turnaround for Wint from his August 11, 2026 Contender Series win draws any late money toward Chatman, and the Over 0.5 Rounds line, which sat at 62c on August 22 and is the cleanest read on whether the market expects a first-round finish.