Elise Reed vs Shanelle Dyer Prediction Market Odds, August 22, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Reed | — | O 0.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
Dyer | — | U 0.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Elise Reed | — | O 0.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
Shanelle Dyer | — | U 0.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
Shanelle Dyer is the 87.5c favorite over Elise Reed on the Sacramento prelims, sitting at 88c on Kalshi and 87c on Polymarket while Reed holds 13c on both books, a 1c cross-platform gap that has not widened in any snapshot the board carries. Dyer (7-1) has five TKO wins and has never been finished; Reed (8-5, 4-5 in the UFC) has won all four of her Octagon fights on the scorecards and lost all five inside the distance. The women's strawweight bout opens the Paramount+ card at Golden 1 Center at 5:00 PM ET on August 22, 2026, with roughly $246K of lifetime volume across the two exchanges. The live board above carries the current prices.
Shanelle Dyer opens as an 87.5c favorite over Elise Reed on a women's strawweight prelim where the two exchanges have never disagreed by more than a single cent. Dyer (7-1) trades at 88c on Kalshi and 87c on Polymarket, Reed (8-5) at 13c on both books, and the board has drawn roughly $246K in lifetime volume. The read behind that number is a stylistic one: five of Dyer's seven wins came by TKO, and every one of Reed's five UFC losses came inside the distance.
Reed vs Dyer Market Context
Kalshi is where this fight actually trades. The two Kalshi fighter contracts carry about $144.7K of lifetime volume on the Dyer side and $95.0K on the Reed side, against a single Polymarket two-outcome market at roughly $5.3K. Polymarket is about 2% of the board, which is why every method and round prop on this fight is Polymarket-only and thinly traded. The 1c gap on Dyer sits inside normal book-to-book noise, so neither exchange is offering a better number on either fighter.
The board holds 313 price snapshots across three lines between 8:11 PM ET Friday and 7:12 AM ET Saturday. Over that entire window Kalshi held Dyer at 88c across 73 captures and Polymarket held her at 87c across 32, with Reed's Polymarket side ticking once from 14c to 13c. That is the full observable series this board carries, so scope the read to the overnight window: the line opened where it sits now.
The records explain the 75c gap. Dyer, 25 years old and fighting out of England, is 7-1 with five KO or TKO wins per ESPN's fight log, and she has never been finished. Her only loss was a unanimous decision to Carol Foro on Dana White's Contender Series in September 2025. She was signed anyway, and in her promotional debut on March 21, 2026 she stopped Ravena Oliveira by punches at 1:17 of round two. She is dropping down from flyweight, where she went 2-0 in PFL Europe across 2023 and 2024, into the 115-pound division.
Reed, 33, is 8-5 overall and 4-5 in the UFC, and her Octagon results split with unusual cleanliness. All four of her UFC wins came on the scorecards: a split decision over Cory McKenna in March 2022, then unanimous decisions over Melissa Martinez, Jinh Yu Frey, and Jessica Penne. All five of her UFC losses came by finish: TKO to Sijara Eubanks at 3:49 of round one, TKO to Sam Hughes in round three, rear naked chokes from Loma Lookboonmee at 0:44 of round two and Loopy Godinez at 3:38 of round two, and a TKO by punches from Denise Gomes in round two on May 17, 2025. She has never won a UFC fight inside the distance and has never lost a UFC fight on the cards. UFC.com describes her Octagon run as alternating results the whole way through, and the log bears that out: her nine UFC fights ran loss, win, loss, win, loss, win, loss, win, loss. She arrives off the Gomes loss after 15 months away.
What the Reed vs Dyer Props Are Pricing
Polymarket has the fight going the distance at 38c, over 1.5 rounds at 59c, and over 2.5 rounds at 44c. Dyer to win by KO or TKO is 48c, the fight ending by submission is 14c, and Reed by KO or TKO is 9c. Each of those markets carries under $900 of lifetime volume, with several at zero, so read them as an indication rather than a priced consensus.
The internal logic holds up. If Dyer by KO or TKO is 48c and her moneyline is 87.5c, the props are saying she wins by stoppage roughly 55% of the time she wins at all, which is close to her 71% career finish rate against an opponent whose entire loss column is finishes. The number that cuts against Reed hardest is the 62c on the fight not reaching the scorecards, because the scorecards are the only place she has ever won in this promotion.
When the Reed vs Dyer Market Resolves
The bout is a three-round women's strawweight fight on the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. Prelims begin at 5:00 PM ET on August 22, 2026 on Paramount+, with the main card at 8:00 PM ET. Kalshi expects expiration by 10:00 PM ET the same night and lists a formal close of September 5, 2026, with each fighter contract paying $1 per share if that fighter is declared the winner. Kalshi resolves a draw or no contest 50/50, and if the fight is postponed the market stays open and closes after the rescheduled bout within two weeks. Polymarket resolves to the officially declared winner and resolves 50-50 on a draw, technical draw, No Contest, unscored bout, cancellation, or a postponement past September 5, 2026. Official UFC information is the resolution source on both books.
Key Reed vs Dyer Catalysts
- Finish asymmetry: all five of Reed's UFC losses came inside the distance, three by TKO and two by rear naked choke, and Dyer has five TKO wins in seven fights.
- Decision-only path: Reed's four UFC wins are all decisions, and the board prices the fight ending before the cards at 62c.
- Reed layoff: her last appearance was the Gomes TKO on May 17, 2025, a gap of roughly 15 months at age 33.
- Dyer durability: she has never been finished in eight professional fights, and her one loss was a unanimous decision on Contender Series.
- No cross-platform gap: Kalshi and Polymarket sit within 1c on Dyer, so there is no better price to hunt between the books.
- Thin prop liquidity: every method and round market on this fight is Polymarket-only and under $900 of lifetime volume, with the distance line at 38c.
Related UFC Sacramento Markets
Reed vs Dyer opens a card headlined by Anthony Hernandez against Gregory Rodrigues, with Roman Dolidze against Reinier de Ridder in the middleweight co-feature. The other women's strawweight bout on the card, Carli Judice against Jeisla Chaves, sits on the main card and is the closest divisional comparison to this one. Chris Padilla against Nasrat Haqparast is the other prelim priced near a coin flip. Every bout on the Sacramento card is listed on the UFC prediction market hub.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to the fighter officially declared the winner of the Reed vs Dyer women's strawweight bout on the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California on August 22, 2026, with official UFC information as the source of truth on both exchanges. Each Kalshi fighter contract pays $1 per share if that fighter wins, and Kalshi expects expiration the night of the fight with a formal close of September 5, 2026. If the bout is ruled a draw, technical draw, or no contest, or is not scored, both platforms resolve 50/50. If the fight is postponed, Kalshi keeps the market open and settles after the rescheduled bout provided it lands within two weeks; Polymarket resolves 50-50 if the bout is canceled or pushed past September 5, 2026.
Key Factors
- Finish asymmetry: all five of Reed's UFC losses came inside the distance, against five TKO wins in seven fights for Dyer
- Reed's four UFC wins are all decisions while the board prices the fight ending before the scorecards at 62c
- Reed layoff of roughly 15 months since the Denise Gomes TKO on May 17, 2025, at age 33
- Dyer has never been finished in eight pro fights and her only loss was a unanimous decision on Contender Series
- Kalshi and Polymarket sit within 1c on Dyer, so no better price exists between the books
- Every method and round prop is Polymarket-only and under $900 of lifetime volume, with the distance line at 38c
What are the current Reed vs Dyer odds?
As of August 22, 2026, Shanelle Dyer is an 87.5c favorite, priced at 88c on Kalshi and 87c on Polymarket. Elise Reed is 13c on both exchanges. The live board above carries the current prices.
Who is favored in Reed vs Dyer?
Shanelle Dyer, at an implied probability of about 88%. She is 7-1 with five KO or TKO wins per ESPN, while Elise Reed is 8-5 overall and 4-5 in the UFC with all five of her Octagon losses coming by finish.
Where can I trade the Reed vs Dyer market?
Both Kalshi and Polymarket list the fight. Kalshi runs a separate contract on each fighter and holds roughly $240K of the board's $246K lifetime volume; Polymarket runs one two-outcome market plus every method and round prop on the bout.
When does the Reed vs Dyer market resolve?
The bout opens the prelims at 5:00 PM ET on August 22, 2026 at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento. Kalshi expects expiration that night and lists a formal close of September 5, 2026, with Polymarket resolving 50-50 on a draw, no contest, or a postponement past that date.
What should I watch before Reed vs Dyer resolves?
Watch whether the fight reaches the scorecards. Polymarket prices the distance at 38c and Dyer by KO or TKO at 48c, and Reed has won four UFC fights by decision and lost five by finish, so the round the fight ends in decides the moneyline.