Ezra Elliott vs Damien Anderson Prediction Market Odds, July 18, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Elliott | — | O 1.5 58% | 47%45% | 47% Kalshi |
▶Anderson | — | U 1.5 42% | 55%56% | 56% Polymarket |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Ezra Elliott | — | O 1.5 | 47% Kalshi | |
▶Damien Anderson | — | U 1.5 | 56% Polymarket |
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Damien Anderson is the consensus favorite at 55.5c (55c on Kalshi, 56c on Polymarket) over Ezra Elliott at 46c in one of the closest bouts on the UFC Oklahoma City prelims, a featherweight matchup between two undefeated Octagon debutants. Both books agree on Anderson within a single cent, so this reads as a near coin-flip: Elliott (7-0, 100% finish rate) carries the size and finishing volume, while Anderson (5-0, 100% finish rate) steps up from bantamweight on four days' notice. The board has held all day across roughly $132K in cross-platform volume and resolves when the fight goes final on July 18, 2026.
Damien Anderson is the marginal favorite at 55.5c against Ezra Elliott at 46c in one of the closest bouts on the UFC Oklahoma City card, a featherweight matchup between two undefeated Octagon debutants. Both prediction markets line up within a single cent of each other on Anderson, framing this prelim as a near coin-flip with roughly $132K in cross-platform volume behind it.
Ezra Elliott vs Damien Anderson Records and Form
Elliott enters at 7-0 with a 100% finish rate, five submissions and two knockouts, and is coming off a first-round knockout of Ashton Caniglia in May. The 26-year-old trains alongside Sean O'Malley at Red Hawk Academy and out of The MMA Lab in Glendale, Arizona, and makes his Octagon debut here.
Anderson counters at 5-0, also a 100% finisher with four submissions and one knockout. Nicknamed 'Demon Hands', he is a natural bantamweight moving up to featherweight on four days' notice, and he brings a heavy grappling pedigree from the former B-Team Jiu-Jitsu squad that included Craig Jones and Nick Rodriguez. He is also making his first Octagon walk, so both fighters carry undefeated records into unfamiliar territory.
The Elliott vs Anderson Moneyline Read
The moneyline sits at Anderson 55.5c (55c on Kalshi, 56c on Polymarket) and Elliott 46c (47c on Kalshi, 45c on Polymarket). Polymarket prices Anderson one cent higher than Kalshi does, but with the two books inside a single cent there is no meaningful edge on either fighter. This is priced as a genuine pick-em, with Anderson the slimmest of favorites at an implied probability near 56%.
The line has held through the day. Anderson opened at 54c on Kalshi and sits at 55c now, Polymarket has stayed flat at 56c since the board opened, and Elliott has held at 47c on Kalshi. There is no directional move to read into here, which fits a matchup the market cannot separate.
Method and Rounds Markets on Elliott vs Anderson
Submission is the single most likely outcome at 51c on Polymarket, ahead of a KO or TKO by either fighter at 42c and the fight reaching the scorecards at 39c. Over 2.5 rounds prices at 40c, so the market leans toward a stoppage inside two and a half rounds at roughly 60c. Split by fighter, Anderson to win by KO or TKO is 26c while Elliott by KO or TKO is 12c, so the knockout equity tilts toward Anderson even as the fight overall is a coin-flip.
What Moves the Elliott vs Anderson Line
Both fighters are elite grapplers with 100% finish rates and a combined nine submissions across twelve professional wins, which is why submission is the modal method at 51c. Anderson steps up from bantamweight on short notice, ceding the frame and size edge to Elliott at 145 pounds, and that weight dynamic is the clearest structural factor in the bout. First-Octagon variance cuts both ways, since neither prospect has fought under the bright lights before. The UFC Oklahoma City main event between Dricus du Plessis and Kamaru Usman anchors the card that this prelim opens.
Related UFC Oklahoma City Markets
Compare this bout with the rest of the slate: the du Plessis vs Usman main event, the Cannonier vs Duncan co-main event, and the Hooper vs Ramirez featherweight bout. For the full board of cross-platform prices across every fight and league, see the sports markets hub.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to the fighter who wins the featherweight bout between Ezra Elliott and Damien Anderson at UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs. Usman, held at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City on July 18, 2026. The moneyline settles on the official result, whether by knockout, submission, or decision, paying $1 per share for the winning fighter and $0 for the loser. Method-of-victory and rounds markets settle on how and when the fight ends under each platform's rules. If the bout is canceled, postponed past the resolution window, or ruled a no-contest or draw, the contracts void or resolve per Kalshi and Polymarket specific rules.
Key Factors
- Grappling battle: both carry 100% finish rates with a combined nine submissions, and submission is the market's single most likely method at 51c
- Weight and size: Anderson is a natural bantamweight taking the featherweight bout on four days' notice, ceding the frame edge to Elliott at 145 pounds
- Cross-platform spread on the favorite is one cent (Anderson 55c on Kalshi, 56c on Polymarket), so neither book offers an edge
- Finish lean: over 2.5 rounds sits at 40c and fight-goes-the-distance is 39c, pointing to a stoppage inside two and a half rounds
- Debut variance: the first Octagon appearance for both undefeated prospects (Elliott 7-0, Anderson 5-0)
- Line stability: Anderson opened at 54c on Kalshi and sits at 55c, with Polymarket flat at 56c
What are the current Elliott vs Anderson odds?
As of July 18, 2026, Damien Anderson is the favorite at 55.5c (55c on Kalshi, 56c on Polymarket) and Ezra Elliott is at 46c (47c on Kalshi, 45c on Polymarket). The two books agree on Anderson within a single cent.
Who is favored in Elliott vs Anderson?
Damien Anderson is the marginal favorite at roughly 56c, an implied win probability near 56%. It is one of the closest bouts on the UFC Oklahoma City card and reads as a coin-flip as of July 18, 2026.
Where can I trade the Elliott vs Anderson market?
The fight trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Both list a moneyline on each fighter, and Polymarket also prices method-of-victory and rounds markets for the bout.
How is the Elliott vs Anderson fight likely to end?
The single most likely method is submission at 51c, ahead of a KO or TKO at 42c. Only 39c is priced on the fight reaching the judges, and over 2.5 rounds sits at 40c, so the market leans toward a finish.
What should I watch before Elliott vs Anderson resolves?
Watch the grappling exchanges: with two 100% finishers and submission the likeliest method at 51c, the first clean takedown or scramble can swing the live line. Anderson stepping up from bantamweight on short notice is the other variable, resolving July 18, 2026.