Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez Prediction Market Odds, July 18, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Hooper | — | O 1.5 50% | 76%78% | 78% Polymarket |
▶Ramirez | — | U 1.5 50% | 25%23% | 25% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Chase Hooper | — | O 1.5 | 78% Polymarket | |
▶Mitch Ramirez | — | U 1.5 | 25% Kalshi |
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Chase Hooper is the 77c favorite (76c on Kalshi, 78c on Polymarket) over Mitch Ramirez at 24c in Saturday's lightweight bout at UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs. Usman in Oklahoma City. The price backs a grappler on a two-fight TKO skid against an opponent who is 0-2 in the UFC, and the method board agrees on the path: submission is the top single outcome at 40c while the distance trades at just 28c. The line held at 76c to 78c through fight-day morning, even after Hooper missed weight at 157.5 pounds on Friday.
Chase Hooper enters Saturday's lightweight bout at UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs. Usman as the 77c favorite over Mitch Ramirez, a price that says the market still trusts the 26-year-old grappler despite two straight TKO losses. The fight trades roughly $154K in combined volume across Kalshi and Polymarket, and both men arrive under pressure: Hooper is trying to stop the first skid of his UFC run, while Ramirez (0-2 in the promotion) is fighting for his roster spot. The bout proceeds at catchweight after Hooper weighed in at 157.5 pounds on Friday, 1.5 pounds over the lightweight non-title limit, forfeiting 20% of his purse to Ramirez.
Hooper vs Ramirez Market Context
Hooper (16-5-1) is the known name here, and his profile explains the method board. Eight of his 16 wins are submissions, against four knockouts and four decisions, and his 2024-25 run of three straight wins (a brabo choke of Viacheslav Borshchev in May 2024, an armbar of Clay Guida in December 2024, a unanimous decision over Jim Miller in April 2025) was built on grappling pressure. The slide since is the reason he is 77c and not higher: Alexander Hernandez stopped him with punches in August 2025, and Lance Gibson Jr. knocked him out with knees in under three minutes at UFC Seattle in March 2026.
Ramirez (8-3) is 33, seven years older than Hooper, and 0-2 in the UFC with both losses by TKO: Thiago Moises stopped him in the third round of his March 2024 debut, and Mike Davis finished him in round two at UFC Nashville in July 2025. He also gives up three inches of reach (71 inches to Hooper's 74). His path is the one the market discounts: keep the fight standing and test the same durability that failed Hooper in his last two outings.
The Hooper vs Ramirez Moneyline Read
Hooper trades at 76c on Kalshi and 78c on Polymarket, a 2c split that reads as normal book-to-book noise, not a value gap. Kalshi is the cheaper entry on Hooper at 76c; Polymarket carries the better Ramirez price at 23c against 25c on Kalshi. The consensus 77c implies a 77% win probability for a fighter who has been finished by strikes twice in a row, which is a bet that the fight hits the mat before Ramirez's power lands. Notably, Kalshi's volume tilts to the dog side, with about $35K traded on the Ramirez contract against $14K on Hooper's.
The line itself has not moved. Across the roughly 14-hour snapshot window from Friday evening through Saturday morning, Hooper opened and held at 76c on Kalshi and 78c on Polymarket, with Ramirez steady at 25c and 23c. Every snapshot in that window came after the weigh-in news broke, so the market has already priced the 157.5-pound miss and shrugged.
Method and Round Props for Hooper vs Ramirez
The method board, listed on Polymarket, prices submission as the top single outcome at 40c, ahead of KO or TKO at 37c, with the fight going the distance at just 28c. That is roughly a 72% implied chance of a finish. Split by fighter, Hooper by KO or TKO trades at 18c and Ramirez by KO or TKO at 14c, so the submission price is effectively the Hooper path, consistent with his eight career submission wins. The round totals lean the same way: over 0.5 rounds trades at 76c, over 1.5 rounds at 53c, and over 2.5 rounds at 38c, making it close to a coin flip whether this fight reaches round two.
The props moved more than the moneyline on fight day. Over 0.5 rounds firmed from 56c to 76c and the overall KO or TKO price climbed from 32c to 37c. These lines are lightly traded (the 1.5-round total carries about $2.5K, the method markets far less), so read the direction, not the precision.
How the Hooper vs Ramirez Market Resolves
The winner market settles on the officially announced result of the bout at UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs. Usman on July 18, 2026, at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. Contracts on the winner pay $1 per share and the other side settles at zero; if the bout ends in a draw or no contest, contracts on both fighters settle at zero under the platforms' fight-market rules. Round totals settle on when the fight ends, with over 2.5 rounds requiring the fight to pass the midpoint of round three, and the catchweight designation from Hooper's weight miss does not affect settlement.
What to Watch in Hooper vs Ramirez
- The skid: Hooper has been stopped by strikes in back-to-back fights (Hernandez in August 2025, Gibson Jr. in round one in March 2026) after a three-fight win streak.
- Ramirez's durability: he is 0-2 in the UFC with both losses by TKO (Moises in March 2024, Davis in July 2025); the first man hurt probably decides the fight.
- The weight miss: Hooper's 157.5-pound Friday weigh-in was the first miss of his career; the bout is a catchweight and he forfeits 20% of his purse.
- The grappling path: submission at 40c is the top-priced method, and eight of Hooper's 16 career wins are submissions.
- The book split: Kalshi prices Hooper at 76c against 78c on Polymarket, a plain 2c disagreement, with the better Ramirez entry (23c) on Polymarket.
- Early danger: over 0.5 rounds moved from 56c to 76c on fight day; the opening exchanges are where Ramirez's entire 14c KO price lives.
Related UFC Markets
Both men fight in the division tracked by the UFC lightweight champion market, which prices the 155-pound title picture through 2026. For the wider promotion view, the UFC pound-for-pound market ranks the sport's top fighters, and the full slate of fight and game boards lives on the sports hub.
Resolution Criteria
The moneyline settles on the officially announced winner of the Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez bout at UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs. Usman on July 18, 2026, at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. Contracts on the winning fighter pay $1 per share and the losing side settles at zero. If the bout ends in a draw or no contest, or no winner is announced, contracts on both fighters settle at zero under the platforms' fight-market rules. Round totals settle on when the fight ends, with over 2.5 rounds requiring the fight to pass the midpoint of round three, and method-of-victory markets settle on the officially announced method. The catchweight designation from Hooper's weight miss does not affect settlement.
Key Factors
- Hooper stopped by strikes in back-to-back fights (Hernandez August 2025, Gibson Jr. round one March 2026) after a three-fight win streak
- Ramirez is 0-2 in the UFC with both losses by TKO (Moises March 2024, Davis July 2025)
- Hooper missed weight at 157.5 pounds, the first of his career; catchweight bout with a 20% purse forfeit
- Submission is the top-priced method at 40c on Polymarket; the distance trades at just 28c
- Books split 2c on the favorite: Hooper 76c on Kalshi vs 78c on Polymarket
- Moneyline held 76c to 78c through fight-day morning; over 0.5 rounds firmed from 56c to 76c
What are the current Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez odds?
As of July 18, 2026, Chase Hooper trades at a 77c average (76c on Kalshi, 78c on Polymarket), an implied 77% win probability. Mitch Ramirez trades at a 24c average (25c on Kalshi, 23c on Polymarket).
Where can I trade the Hooper vs Ramirez fight market?
The winner market trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket with roughly $154K in combined volume. The round totals and method-of-victory props are listed on Polymarket.
What are the method-of-victory odds for Hooper vs Ramirez?
On Polymarket as of July 18, 2026, submission is the top-priced method at 40c, KO or TKO trades at 37c, and the fight going the distance trades at 28c. Hooper by KO or TKO is 18c and Ramirez by KO or TKO is 14c.
Did Chase Hooper make weight for the Ramirez fight?
No. Hooper weighed 157.5 pounds on Friday, 1.5 pounds over the lightweight non-title limit and the first miss of his career. The bout proceeds at catchweight and Hooper forfeits 20% of his purse to Ramirez, who made 155.5 pounds.
When does the Hooper vs Ramirez market resolve?
On fight night, Saturday, July 18, 2026, once the winner is announced at UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs. Usman at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. Prelims start at 5pm ET with the main card at 8pm ET.
What should I watch before Hooper vs Ramirez resolves?
The opening minutes. Over 0.5 rounds firmed from 56c to 76c on fight day, Hooper has been stopped by strikes in two straight fights, and both of Ramirez's UFC losses also came by TKO. The first clean exchange tells you which price was right.