Levi Rodrigues Jr. vs Felipe Franco Prediction Market Odds, July 18, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Jr. | — | O 1.5 48% | 59%59% | 59% Kalshi |
▶Franco | — | U 1.5 52% | 43%42% | 43% Kalshi |
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Levi Rodrigues Jr. is the 59c favorite over Felipe Franco in a light heavyweight bout at UFC Fight Night in Oklahoma City on July 18, 2026, and Kalshi and Polymarket have landed on the same number to the cent (59c on both). Rodrigues Jr. makes his UFC debut undefeated at 5-0 with one no contest and a perfect record of early finishes, while Franco is the more experienced fighter at 10-2 but arrives on a two-fight losing streak. The board across roughly $51K in volume leans hard toward a finish, with the live prices above tracking every update through fight night.
Levi Rodrigues Jr. opens his UFC run as a 59c favorite over fellow Brazilian Felipe Franco, and both prediction markets have settled on the same read. Rodrigues Jr. is 5-0 with one no contest and has never let a fight leave the round it started in. Franco brings the deeper 10-2 resume but arrives on back-to-back losses, dropping back to his natural light heavyweight after a short-notice octagon debut up a division. The market prices this as a live but clearly leaning matchup, and the finish props do most of the talking.
Rodrigues Jr vs Franco Records and Form
Rodrigues Jr., nicknamed "Baby Monster," is 5-0 with a lone no contest, and every one of his professional fights has ended inside the round it began. He earned his UFC deal in the main event of the Contender Series season-nine finale in October 2025, stopping the previously unbeaten Freddy Vidal with first-round ground-and-pound before that result was overturned to a no contest following a positive test for a nandrolone metabolite. This is his first walk to the octagon.
Franco, out of Salvador, Bahia, is 10-2 as a pro since 2022, with six wins by KO and four by submission and ten of his finishes coming in the first round. His last two results have gone the wrong way: a unanimous-decision loss to Mario Pinto at UFC London on March 21, 2026, and a rear-naked-choke submission loss to Freddy Vidal on the 2025 Contender Series. That Vidal thread is the useful common opponent here, since Rodrigues Jr. finished Vidal while Vidal submitted Franco.
The Rodrigues Jr vs Franco Moneyline and Method Read
The moneyline is clean: Rodrigues Jr. sits at 59c on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with Franco at 43c on Kalshi and 42c on Polymarket. That is an implied win probability near 59% for the debutant, and with the two books agreeing to the cent there is no cross-platform gap to exploit on the favorite.
The props carry the real signal. On the rounds market, the over 0.5 rounds line trades at 70c, over 1.5 rounds at 49c, and over 2.5 rounds at just 31c, so the market gives the bout only about a 31% chance of reaching the third round. The method board reinforces it: the fight going the distance is priced at just 23c, implying roughly a 77% chance of a finish. KO or TKO is the single most likely method at 49c, and Rodrigues Jr. carries nearly all of that knockout equity, with a Rodrigues Jr. KO/TKO at 49c against a Franco KO/TKO at 24c and either fighter by submission at 28c. Two first-round finishers meeting at light heavyweight, and the market expects it to end early with Rodrigues Jr. the one landing it.
When the Rodrigues Jr vs Franco Market Resolves
The market resolves on July 18, 2026, when the bout concludes at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City on the UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs. Usman card. The moneyline pays the fighter whose hand is raised; the rounds and method contracts settle on the official result and the recorded stoppage time. A no contest, draw, or a fighter withdrawal is handled under each platform's specific rules. The main-event board anchors the rest of the slate.
Key Rodrigues Jr vs Franco Factors
Finishing rate: Rodrigues Jr. is 5-0 with every fight ending inside the round, the record driving the KO/TKO prop to 49c.
Franco's skid: Franco carries a two-fight losing streak into a return to his natural light heavyweight.
Common opponent: the Freddy Vidal thread cuts toward Rodrigues Jr., who finished Vidal while Vidal submitted Franco.
Cross-platform consensus: both Kalshi and Polymarket price the favorite at 59c, leaving no spread on the moneyline.
Rounds market: the board gives the fight only a 31c chance of reaching the third round and a 23c chance of going the distance.
Debut variance: first-octagon nerves and cage sharpness cut both ways as the main source of upset risk.
Related UFC Markets
This bout sits on the same Oklahoma City card as the Cannonier vs Duncan co-main event and the Hooper vs Ramirez lightweight bout, with the Du Plessis vs Usman main event headlining. Compare the full board and other fight prices across the sports markets hub.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to the winner of the Levi Rodrigues Jr. vs Felipe Franco light heavyweight bout when the fight concludes at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City on July 18, 2026, on the UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs. Usman card. The moneyline contract pays the fighter whose hand is officially raised, whether by knockout, submission, or judges' decision. The rounds contracts (over/under 0.5, 1.5, and 2.5 rounds) and the method-of-victory contracts settle on the official result and the recorded stoppage time. If the bout is ruled a no contest or a draw, or if a fighter withdraws before it takes place, the market resolves under each platform's specific void and cancellation rules.
Key Factors
- Rodrigues Jr. finishing rate: 5-0 with every fight ended inside the round, driving the KO/TKO prop to 49c
- Franco on a two-fight losing streak, returning to his natural light heavyweight
- Freddy Vidal common opponent: Rodrigues Jr. finished him, Vidal submitted Franco
- Consensus 59c on the favorite across Kalshi and Polymarket, no cross-platform spread
- Rounds market implies only a 31c chance the fight reaches the third round
- UFC debut variance for Rodrigues Jr. as the main upset risk
What are the current Rodrigues Jr vs Franco odds?
As of July 18, 2026, Levi Rodrigues Jr. is the 59c favorite, priced at 59c on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Felipe Franco sits at 43c on Kalshi and 42c on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Rodrigues Jr vs Franco?
Rodrigues Jr. is the favorite at 59c, an implied win probability near 59%. He enters undefeated at 5-0 with one no contest against Franco's 10-2 record.
Where can I trade the Rodrigues Jr vs Franco market?
The bout trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket. The two books price the favorite identically at 59c, and Polymarket also lists the rounds and method-of-victory props.
When does the Rodrigues Jr vs Franco market resolve?
It resolves on July 18, 2026, when the light heavyweight bout finishes at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City on the UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs. Usman card.
Will Rodrigues Jr vs Franco end in a finish?
The market leans that way. Going the distance is priced at just 23c, implying roughly a 77% chance of a finish, with KO/TKO the likeliest method at 49c and only a 31c chance the fight reaches the third round.