Gauge Young vs Stan Dorsainvil Prediction Market Odds, August 22, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Young | — | O 0.5 — | 0%0% | — |
Dorsainvil | — | U 0.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gauge Young | — | O 0.5 — | 0%0% | — |
Stanley Dorsainvil | — | U 0.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
Gauge Young (11-3) is the 62c consensus favorite over Stan Dorsainvil (5-0) on the Young vs Dorsainvil lightweight prelim, with Kalshi at 63c and Polymarket at 61c for a 2c cross-platform gap. Dorsainvil takes the fight on short notice as a promotional debutant, and the board is pricing that inexperience at roughly 23 points of implied probability rather than the wider number a bigger name would draw. The bout carries about $122K in lifetime volume across both books and settles Saturday night in Sacramento.
Gauge Young is the 62c consensus favorite over Stan Dorsainvil, and the two books barely disagree: Kalshi has Young at 63c, Polymarket at 61c. That 2c gap is the tightest read available on this lightweight prelim, which carries roughly $122K in lifetime cross-platform volume. The pricing is a straight referendum on experience against an unknown. Young is 11-3 as a pro and 2-1 across three UFC appearances, per UFC.com and roster.watch. Dorsainvil is 5-0 and has never fought in the promotion, having taken the booking on short notice after Kody Steele withdrew. The market values that gap at about 23 points of implied probability, not the 40 or 50 an established name would draw against a regional debutant.
Young vs Dorsainvil Market Context
Young, 26, fights out of the United States under the nickname "Gee Money" and enters on a two-fight win streak inside the promotion. UFC.com lists his most recent result as a split-decision win over Thiago Moises on April 18, 2026, preceded by a unanimous-decision win over Hayisaer Maheshate on August 23, 2025. His only UFC loss was a unanimous decision to Evan Elder on April 26, 2025, in his promotional debut. The profile numbers explain why he draws a favorite's price without drawing a heavy one: 6.32 significant strikes landed per minute against 5.12 absorbed, 52% striking accuracy, and 77% takedown defense. That is a high-output, high-traffic profile. Six of his 11 wins are knockouts and five have ended in the first round, so the finishing equity is real, but the absorption rate says he is reachable.
Dorsainvil, also 26, is 5-0 with three submission wins, one knockout, and one decision, per UFC.com. All three of his submissions came by guillotine choke, and three of his five wins ended in round one. He turned pro in January 2023 and earned his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt last October. UFC.com's card preview notes his most recent win was a third-round submission at LFA, and that he is stepping in for the injured Steele. The nickname "The Drill" comes from his day job at Home Depot, which is a fair marker of where this fighter sits on the promotional ladder: talented, unbeaten, and completely untested against UFC-level competition.
The stylistic question the board is pricing is whether Young's 77% takedown defense holds against an opponent whose three finishes all came from a front headlock position. If Dorsainvil cannot get to the body lock or the clinch, Young's volume should decide a three-round fight. If he can, the guillotine is a legitimate one-shot path for an underdog priced at 39.5c consensus (39c Kalshi, 40c Polymarket). Short-notice debuts cut both ways here, since Dorsainvil skips a full camp but Young prepared for a different opponent entirely.
The Polymarket prop shelf reads consistent with a decision-leaning fight. The over on 2.5 rounds prices at 62c and the over on 1.5 rounds at 75c, while "fight to go the distance" sits at 59c. Method markets put a Young knockout or technical knockout at 19c, a Dorsainvil knockout or technical knockout at 7c, and any submission finish at 14c. Treat those as indicative rather than liquid: the round totals and method markets carry under $500 in combined lifetime volume between them, against $86.7K on the Young moneyline leg alone. Kalshi lists no prop coverage on this bout, so the props are single-book prices.
On movement, the board's snapshot series only reaches back to roughly 8:11 PM ET on Friday, so scope the read to that window. Across 67 Kalshi captures Young drifted from 62c to 63c, and across 39 Polymarket captures he has not moved off 61c. Dorsainvil's Kalshi leg sat at 39c at the open and 39c at the most recent capture. This line has not moved in any meaningful way overnight, which is what you would expect on a prelim where the underdog has no public tape for the market to reprice against.
When the Young vs Dorsainvil Market Resolves
The bout is scheduled for the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California, on Saturday, August 22, 2026. ESPN lists the prelims opening at 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+, with the main card following at 8:00 PM ET. It is a three-round lightweight contest. The moneyline resolves to the fighter awarded the official victory by the UFC, and each winning contract pays $1 per share while the losing side settles at $0. A draw or no contest voids under each platform's stated rules for the bout. Kalshi and Polymarket both settle from the official result once the promotion announces it, typically within minutes of the decision being read.
Key Young vs Dorsainvil Catalysts
- Takedown defense against the guillotine: Young's 77% takedown-defense rate is the single most load-bearing number on the board, because all three of Dorsainvil's submission wins came by guillotine choke.
- Short-notice camp: Dorsainvil replaced the injured Kody Steele and makes his promotional debut without a full camp, while Young prepared for a different opponent.
- Absorption rate: Young takes 5.12 significant strikes per minute against 6.32 landed, a trade-heavy profile that keeps an underdog live in a three-round fight.
- First-round equity on both sides: five of Young's 11 wins and three of Dorsainvil's five ended in round one, which is what holds the over on 2.5 rounds down at 62c.
- Thin prop liquidity: the round totals and method markets carry under $500 in combined lifetime volume and trade on Polymarket only, so a single order moves them.
- Cross-platform agreement: the 2c Kalshi-Polymarket gap on Young is narrow enough that neither book is offering a materially better number.
Related Young vs Dorsainvil Markets
The rest of the Sacramento card trades on the same two platforms. The Hernandez vs Rodrigues main event carries the heaviest book on the night at roughly $465K in lifetime volume. The other lightweight bouts are the closest comparables for this one: Padilla vs Haqparast sits on the same prelim block, and Mederos vs Jones opens the main card. Barbosa vs Kuse is the other featherweight prelim with a two-book price. Every bout on the card is indexed on the UFC hub, and the broader slate lives on the sports hub.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to the fighter awarded the official victory in the Gauge Young vs Stanley Dorsainvil lightweight bout on the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California, on Saturday, August 22, 2026. The scheduled distance is three rounds. The winning fighter contract pays $1 per share and the losing contract settles at $0, with the UFC official result as the source of truth. A draw, a no contest, or a bout cancellation voids the market under each platform stated rules, and a fighter withdrawal before the walkout cancels rather than settles the contract. Kalshi and Polymarket both settle from the announced official decision.
Key Factors
- Gauge Young's 77% takedown defense against three career guillotine submission wins for Dorsainvil
- Stan Dorsainvil taking a short-notice UFC debut as an injury replacement without a full camp
- Young's 6.32 significant strikes landed per minute against 5.12 absorbed, a trade-heavy profile
- Five of Young 11 wins and three of Dorsainvil five wins ending in the first round
- Thin prop liquidity, with round totals and method markets under $500 in combined lifetime volume
- The 2c Kalshi-Polymarket gap on Young, narrow enough that neither book offers a better number
What are the current Young vs Dorsainvil odds?
As of August 22, 2026, Gauge Young is the 62c consensus favorite, priced at 63c on Kalshi and 61c on Polymarket. Stan Dorsainvil is the 39.5c underdog at 39c on Kalshi and 40c on Polymarket.
Where can I trade the Young vs Dorsainvil market?
The moneyline trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with roughly $122K in lifetime volume across the two books. The round totals and method-of-victory props trade on Polymarket only.
Who is favored in Young vs Dorsainvil and by what implied probability?
Gauge Young is favored at a 62c consensus price, which implies about a 62% chance of winning. Young is 11-3 as a pro with 77% takedown defense, while Dorsainvil is 5-0 and making his UFC debut on short notice.
When does the Young vs Dorsainvil market resolve?
The bout is on the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues in Sacramento on Saturday, August 22, 2026, with prelims starting at 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+. The market settles once the UFC announces the official result.
What should I watch before Young vs Dorsainvil resolves?
Watch whether the fight reaches the third round, since Polymarket prices the over on 2.5 rounds at 62c and a distance finish at 59c. All three of Dorsainvil five submission wins came by guillotine, so any early clinch exchange is the most likely place this line breaks.