The U.S. invade Iran by 2027 contract is one of the highest-volume geopolitics markets on the board, trading across roughly $38.9M in cumulative volume. It is a single yes/no question with a specific bar: resolution turns on whether the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over part of Iranian territory, not on airstrikes or limited bombing campaigns. The live board above shows the current cross-platform price. The market resolves on December 31, 2026.
The U.S. invade Iran by 2027 market asks one narrow question with a high bar to clear: does the United States launch a military offensive aimed at taking control of Iranian territory before the year is out. That bar is the entire story here. Airstrikes, missile exchanges, and covert operations do not move this contract toward yes on their own. Only an offensive intended to establish control over Iranian land counts. At roughly $38.9M in cumulative volume, it is one of the largest geopolitics markets on the site, and the gap between what the headline implies and what actually resolves it is wide enough to trip up readers who only skim the title.
The distinction between strikes and invasion is the single most important thing to understand about this market. The resolution language is explicit: the contract resolves yes only if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran. A bombing campaign, however large, does not by itself satisfy that condition. Neither do naval engagements in the Strait of Hormuz, cyber operations, or proxy escalation. The market is pricing a ground-control event, the kind of operation that would change who governs or holds territory inside Iran, and that is a far higher threshold than the broad notion of conflict the title suggests.
That is why a reader watching headlines about tensions, sanctions, or even direct U.S. strikes can be surprised the price has not moved much. The live board above reflects how traders weigh the difference. The structural drivers here are the ones that would plausibly lead to an occupation-style operation rather than a punitive strike: a collapse of deterrence, a triggering attack that forces a ground response, or a decision in Washington to pursue regime change by force rather than from the air. Each of those is a much larger commitment than the air and missile options that dominate most U.S.-Iran scenarios, which is the core reason the yes side trades where it does.
The price on this contract is sensitive to escalation that points specifically toward territorial control, not to conflict in general. A direct U.S. ground deployment into Iranian territory is the cleanest yes catalyst. Short of that, the market reads signals about whether an air or missile exchange is escalating into something that would require boots on the ground to resolve. The framing matters because the contract defines sovereign territory by the lines de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025, so the question is strictly about a new offensive intended to take ground after that anchor date.
On the no side, the structural case is that the United States has repeatedly favored strikes, sanctions, and deterrence over occupation in the Iran scenario, and that a full invasion carries costs that have kept it off the table across multiple administrations. The contender set here is binary by construction. There is no menu of outcomes, only the yes/no on whether an offensive to control territory begins before the deadline. That makes the live price a direct read on how the market weighs an invasion specifically, separate from the broader and more frequently discussed risk of U.S.-Iran strikes.
The market resolves on December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It settles yes if, by that deadline, the United States has commenced a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran. Otherwise it settles no. Land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 at 12:00 PM ET is treated as the sovereign territory of that country for resolution purposes, which fixes the baseline a qualifying offensive would have to move. The resolution source is a consensus of credible sources rather than a single official declaration. Each share pays out based on the yes/no outcome at settlement.
For adjacent geopolitical questions, compare the Iranian regime collapse by 2027 odds, which prices internal political risk inside Iran rather than a U.S. military offensive, and the China invade Taiwan by 2026 odds, the other major invasion contract on the board. Browse the full politics prediction markets hub for related contracts, and see Genius Staff's analysis for how these geopolitical markets are tracked and reviewed.
Resolves yes if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, and no otherwise. For resolution, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 at 12:00 PM ET is treated as the sovereign territory of that country, which sets the baseline a qualifying offensive must change. Airstrikes, missile strikes, naval engagements, and covert operations do not on their own satisfy the condition, which requires an offensive aimed at territorial control. The resolution source is a consensus of credible sources.
The contract trades on Polymarket as a single yes/no market with roughly $38.9M in cumulative volume. The live board above shows the current yes and no prices, which update as the question is traded.
It resolves on December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It settles yes if the United States has commenced a military offensive intended to establish control over part of Iran by that deadline, and no otherwise.
No. The resolution requires a military offensive intended to establish control over Iranian territory. Airstrikes, missile strikes, naval engagements, and covert operations do not on their own count as an invasion under the resolution criteria.
The contract is currently listed on Polymarket, where it carries roughly $38.9M in cumulative volume. The live board above links directly to the market page for the yes and no sides.
Watch for any move toward a U.S. ground operation in Iran rather than air or missile strikes, since only an offensive aimed at territorial control resolves yes before the December 31, 2026 deadline.