The Iran regime market is a single yes/no contract on whether the Islamic Republic of Iran's ruling system is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern before the deadline. It is one of the highest-volume geopolitical contracts on the board, carrying roughly $20.9M in cumulative volume, and it currently trades on Polymarket only. The live board above shows the current yes and no prices. The market resolves on December 31, 2026, settling on a broad consensus of credible reporting rather than any single source.
The Iran regime contract asks one structural question: does the Islamic Republic still hold sovereign power at the deadline, or has it been replaced. This is a binary yes/no market, not a multi-candidate race, and the resolution language is deliberately strict about what counts as the regime falling. With roughly $20.9M in cumulative volume, it is among the most-traded standing geopolitical markets, and it has stayed firmly on the no side. The live board above carries the current yes and no prices.
The Iran regime market exists because the question sits at the intersection of several slow-moving pressures that traders can disagree about for years without resolution. Domestic protest cycles, sanctions strain on the economy, succession uncertainty around the office of the Supreme Leader, and external military pressure all feed the yes case. The no case rests on the durability the Islamic Republic has shown across four decades, including its security apparatus and the IRGC.
What makes this a clean binary rather than a fuzzy debate is the resolution standard. The market does not pay out on instability, protests, or a leadership succession. It pays out only on a clear break in the continuity of the governing system itself. That bar is high enough that the no side has been the heavy favorite for the life of the contract, which is exactly why the yes side draws speculative interest whenever a crisis flares.
Because the contract trades on Polymarket only, there is no cross-platform spread to track here the way there is on a paired Kalshi and Polymarket market. The single-venue pricing means the live board above reflects one order book rather than a blend of two.
The yes side is a tail bet, so the price reacts to discrete shocks more than to gradual trends. A sustained nationwide uprising that the security forces cannot contain is the clearest path. A military coup that replaces the clerical leadership with a fundamentally different system would also qualify, as would a voluntary abdication that hands power to a provisional government or transitional council.
External conflict is the other major driver. Direct military pressure that degrades the state's ability to govern its territory feeds the yes case, which is why this contract often moves in tandem with markets on whether the United States invades. Readers tracking that angle can compare the will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027 odds for the conflict-driven side of the same picture.
What will not move the market, by design, is routine politics. Elections, reforms, leadership succession within the existing structure, and internal power shifts that preserve the core institutions all fail the resolution test. Partial loss of territory or pressure from exile and rebel groups also does not qualify unless the Islamic Republic stops administering the majority of Iran's population.
The Iran regime market resolves on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It settles yes only if the core structures of the Islamic Republic, such as the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, and IRGC control under clerical authority, have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system, or have otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population. The settlement source is a broad consensus of credible reporting rather than any single outlet. If none of those conditions are met by the deadline, the market resolves no.
The closest companion contract is the Reza Pahlavi to lead Iran in 2026 odds, which prices a specific successor scenario and serves as a proxy for the same regime-change question from the leadership angle. For the conflict-driven path, the will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027 odds tracks the external-pressure side that often moves this market. Browse the full politics prediction markets hub for related geopolitical contracts, and see Genius Staff's analysis for how these markets are tracked and refreshed.
Resolves yes if the Islamic Republic of Iran's current ruling regime is overthrown, has collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A yes outcome requires broad consensus of reporting that core structures of the Islamic Republic, such as the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, and IRGC control under clerical authority, have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system, or have otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population. This can occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication. Routine elections, reforms, leadership succession, or internal power shifts that preserve the core structures do not qualify, nor does partial loss of territory unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers a majority of Iran's population. The settlement source is a consensus of credible reporting. If none of these conditions are met, the market resolves no.
The Iran regime market is a yes/no contract trading on Polymarket with roughly $20.9M in cumulative volume. The no side has been the heavy favorite. See the live board above for the current yes and no prices.
It resolves on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, settling on a broad consensus of credible reporting about whether the Islamic Republic still holds sovereign power.
A yes outcome requires core structures of the Islamic Republic, such as the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, and IRGC clerical control, to be dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced. Elections, reforms, or succession within the existing system do not qualify.
The contract currently trades on Polymarket only, so there is no cross-platform Kalshi spread for this market. The live board above reflects that single order book.
Watch for discrete shocks rather than gradual trends: a nationwide uprising, a military coup, or direct external conflict that degrades state control. These are the catalysts that would move the yes price ahead of the December 31, 2026 deadline.