The Trump out of office market asks whether Donald Trump resigns, is removed, or otherwise stops being president before 2027, and both Kalshi and Polymarket treat it as heavy No chalk. The contract has traded roughly $16.5M in cumulative volume across the two books and resolves December 31, 2026, now under five months out. The live board above shows the current Yes and No prices on each platform, with No priced as the base case and Yes trading as a low-probability tail.
Prediction markets have priced Donald Trump leaving the presidency early as a long shot, and the Trump out of office contract has held that read all summer. The market resolves December 31, 2026 and asks one Yes or No question: does Trump resign, get removed, or otherwise cease to be president before 2027. Kalshi and Polymarket both list it, the contract has traded roughly $16.5M in cumulative volume across the two books, and with the deadline now under five months away the No side remains heavy chalk.
The contract is a straight bet on presidential continuity. A Yes requires a resignation, a removal, a sustained 25th Amendment Section 4 invocation, or any other event that ends Trump's tenure before the calendar turns to 2027. Everything else, including him simply finishing the year in office, resolves No. The base rate is why the No side is chalk: no sitting president has left office mid-term outside of death or resignation in over 50 years, and the bar the contract sets is deliberately high.
The two books have converged rather than drifted apart. Through the summer Kalshi and Polymarket ran a couple of cents apart on the Yes side, and they now print the same single-digit number on both the Yes and No legs. That agreement matters more than any gap would. When two independent order books land on the same long-shot read, the number reflects shared consensus that early removal is unlikely rather than one platform's flow. The live board above shows the current split, and the small residual difference between the Yes and No legs is each book's own vig, not a mispricing to trade.
The market also just got a settled data point to calibrate against. A narrower Kalshi companion contract asking whether Trump would leave office before August 1, 2026 resolved No, printing 0c on the Yes side at settlement after carrying $3.8M in volume. That is the same continuity question over a shorter window, and it paid the way the board priced it. The Donald Trump out by August 2026 market is now the historical reference for how this class of contract settles when no removal event arrives.
What keeps the Yes side off zero is tail risk. Impeachment proceedings that actually reach a Senate removal vote, a health event that triggers a sustained Section 4 invocation, or a resignation under political pressure would each resolve the contract Yes. None is the base case, but each is a discrete catalyst the market has to keep pricing, which is why the Yes side holds a small, non-zero premium rather than collapsing entirely.
The single most useful cross-check on this contract is the impeachment market, and the two numbers look contradictory until the mechanics are laid out. The Trump impeachment market trades near 63c across Kalshi and Polymarket, while Trump out of office before 2027 sits in the single digits. That is not a pricing error. The impeachment contract resolves Yes on a simple-majority House vote approving one or more articles of impeachment at any point through January 20, 2029. It says nothing about conviction, and it says nothing about removal.
Impeachment is an accusation. Removal takes a two-thirds Senate vote, and no president has ever been convicted at trial. Stack the two conditions and the gap between 63c and single digits is arithmetic, not disagreement. The out-of-office contract also carries a much tighter window, ending December 31, 2026 rather than running to the end of the term.
The resignation angle prices the same way. The Trump resignation market sits near 20c on Kalshi as a one-book contract, and it covers the full term through January 2029. Compress that window down to the end of 2026 and the number has to fall toward what the out-of-office board is paying. Read together, the three contracts are internally consistent: a real chance of a House vote, a smaller chance of a resignation over four years, and a small chance of either one actually ending the presidency inside the next five months.
The Trump out of office market resolves December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It settles Yes if Donald Trump resigns, is removed, or otherwise ceases to be president for any period before that deadline, with the outcome drawn from a consensus of credible reporting. An announced resignation or removal resolves the market Yes immediately, regardless of when it takes effect. Only permanent removal qualifies: a temporary 25th Amendment Section 3 handoff, an unsustained Section 4 invocation, or an impeachment that does not end in removal all resolve No. A Section 4 invocation upheld by a two-thirds vote of both houses of Congress does count as Yes.
The Trump out of office contract sits inside a cluster of continuity markets that trade the same way. The Putin out by end of 2026 market and the Xi Jinping out before 2027 market ask the identical question about other heads of state on the same December 31, 2026 deadline, and both price early removal in the single digits with $20.0M and $12.7M in volume respectively. For the longer-dated US picture, the 2028 Republican Presidential Nominee market and the 2028 US Presidential Election market show what the board expects after this term. For the full board of election and leadership contracts, browse the politics prediction markets hub.
The Trump out of office market resolves December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It settles Yes if Donald Trump resigns, is removed, or otherwise ceases to be President of the United States for any period of time on or before that deadline, and No if he remains in office. An announced resignation or removal resolves the market Yes immediately, regardless of when it takes effect. Only permanent removal qualifies: a temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment Section 3, a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both houses of Congress, and an impeachment without removal all resolve No. A Section 4 invocation sustained by a two-thirds vote of both houses does resolve Yes. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting.
As of August 17, 2026, the Yes side (Trump leaves before 2027) trades at 6c and the No side at 95c on both books. Kalshi and Polymarket are printing the identical number, down from a 6c to 8c split on the Yes side a month earlier.
The market resolves December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It settles Yes if Trump resigns, is removed, or otherwise ceases to be president for any period before that deadline, and No if he stays in office.
The contract is listed on both Kalshi (ticker KXTRUMPOUT27) and Polymarket, with about $16.5M in combined cumulative volume. The two books are quoting the same price on the Yes and No legs, so the pricing reflects a shared consensus rather than a gap.
The impeachment contract trades near 63c because it resolves on a simple-majority House vote alone, at any point through January 20, 2029. This market needs an actual removal, resignation, or sustained 25th Amendment Section 4 invocation, and it needs it before December 31, 2026.
Watch for any impeachment effort that reaches a Senate removal vote, a sustained 25th Amendment Section 4 invocation, or a resignation, since each would resolve the market Yes. The Kalshi companion contract covering the window before August 1, 2026 already settled No at 0c, and absent a removal event the No side here compresses toward 100c into December 31, 2026.