| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Wings | +6.5 46%46% | O 185.5 54% | 28%28% | 28% Kalshi |
â–¶Fever | -6.5 54%54% | U 185.5 46% | 73%73% | 73% Kalshi |
Indiana is the 72.5c home favorite (73c Kalshi, 72c Polymarket) over Dallas at 27.5c, and the sharper number is the arc: the Wings traded at 79c as a home favorite against Toronto on Wednesday, August 12, and price as a 27.5c road underdog two nights later. The Fever are 21-12 and 12-6 at home, the Wings are 20-14 and missing three rotation players. The board has cleared roughly $78.5K across both platforms.
The Dallas Wings walked off their home floor Wednesday night as a 79c favorite and beat Toronto 94-88. Two nights later the same roster prices at 27.5c on the road in Indianapolis. That roughly 51-cent gap between consecutive games is a venue-and-opponent reprice, not a verdict on form: Indiana is 21-12 overall and 12-6 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Dallas is 20-14 with a 10-8 road mark, and the Wings arrive short three rotation players. Tip is 7:30 PM ET on Friday, August 14, 2026.
Indiana is the 72.5c side on the moneyline, 73c on Kalshi and 72c on Polymarket. A one-cent split between the two books is about as tight as this board gets, and it means there is no cross-platform disagreement to trade here, only a shared read. Dallas sits at 27.5c (27c Kalshi, 28c Polymarket). Roughly $78.5K in volume has cleared across the pair, and Kalshi carries the bulk of it: the Indiana moneyline alone has done about $38.0K on Kalshi against $3.3K on Polymarket.
The availability sheet does most of the work in that price. ESPN's injury report as of Thursday, August 13, 2026 lists three Dallas players out with August 17 return dates: guard Azzi Fudd (right knee), guard Aziaha James (left lower leg), and forward Jessica Shepard (right ankle). Indiana's report is softer but not clean. Caitlin Clark (back) and Aliyah Boston (right lower leg) are both day-to-day with August 14 return dates, and center Damiris Dantas is out for the season with a left knee injury. A market that prices Indiana at 72.5c is pricing both Clark and Boston as likely available.
Form points the same direction without being decisive. Indiana has won two straight, 90-86 at Chicago on August 8 and 106-92 over New York at home on August 11, and is 4-2 across its last six. Dallas is 2-4 over the same stretch with losses to Washington, Golden State, and Minnesota before Wednesday's 94-88 win over Toronto. Kelsey Mitchell leads the Fever at 24.3 points per game, Clark averages 21.7 points and a team-best 8.2 assists, and Boston pulls 8.4 rebounds. Paige Bueckers carries Dallas at 20.2 points, 5.8 assists, and 4.1 rebounds, and with Fudd and James out she absorbs a larger share of the guard minutes against a Fever defense that has held two of its last three opponents under 90.
Line movement has been one-directional. The Kalshi Indiana moneyline opened at 73c when the market went up and has printed 73c on every snapshot since, so our own board has held flat. The sportsbook market moved before ours did: DraftKings took Indiana from -218 at open to -278, and the spread from -5.5 to -6.5. Money has come in on the home side and the prediction-market price is already sitting at the destination rather than travelling to it.
The spread is the more interesting instrument on this board because it is the one line quoted identically on both platforms. Indiana -6.5 trades at 54c on Kalshi and 54c on Polymarket, a coin flip with a half-point of cushion. Polymarket also lists Indiana -5.5 at 56c, and Kalshi runs a full ladder: Indiana -1.5 at 67c, -3.5 at 62c, -9.5 at 41c, -12.5 at 32c, -15.5 at 24c, and -18.5 at 18c. Read across that ladder and the market gives Indiana roughly a 41% chance of a double-digit win and an 18% chance of winning by 19 or more. The Dallas side of the ladder is priced at 29c for -1.5 and 17c for -6.5, which is the market saying an outright Wings win is far more plausible than a comfortable one.
The total is set at 186.5. Polymarket prices the over at 53c. Kalshi's ladder brackets the same number from both sides: over 185.5 at 55c, over 188.5 at 46c, over 191.5 at 39c, and over 179.5 at 83c. DraftKings opened this game at 187.5 and has come down a point, so the small move has been toward the under. Two teams that combined for 182 points in Indiana's last home game and 182 in Dallas's win over Toronto make 186.5 a genuine midpoint rather than a lean.
The player-prop layer is Polymarket-only and thin, under $320 of combined volume across the priced lines, so it is a curiosity rather than a signal. The one line trading near a coin flip is Makayla Timpson rebounds over 5.5 at 49c. Aliyah Boston's points over 16.5 and rebounds over 8.5 both sit at 2c on a handful of dollars of volume, and Jessica Shepard's assists over 4.5 is at 1c with Shepard already ruled out. Most of the remaining props, including the Clark and Bueckers lines, carry no market on either platform.
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Friday, August 14, 2026, with a 7:30 PM ET scheduled tip. Winning contracts pay $1 per share and the losing side settles at zero. The spread settles on the final margin, so Indiana -6.5 pays only if the Fever win by seven or more, and the 186.5 total settles on combined final points including any overtime. Kalshi and Polymarket both settle off the official league final, typically within a few hours of the buzzer. A postponement moves settlement to the rescheduled date rather than voiding, and a game called before it is official follows each platform's cancellation rules.
Clark and Boston status: Both are day-to-day on ESPN's Thursday report with August 14 return dates, and a late scratch of either is the single largest repricing risk on a 72.5c favorite.
Dallas rotation depth: Fudd, James, and Shepard are all out through at least August 17, which concentrates usage on Paige Bueckers (20.2 points, 5.8 assists) and shortens the Wings bench.
The spread versus the moneyline: Indiana -6.5 at 54c against Indiana moneyline at 72.5c means the market sees a Fever win as far likelier than a comfortable one.
Cross-platform agreement: Kalshi and Polymarket are within one cent on the moneyline and identical at 54c on Indiana -6.5, which removes the usual two-book price question from this board.
Playoff seeding: Indiana at 21-12 and Dallas at 20-14 are separated by a game and a half in the standings, so the result moves both teams' postseason positioning in the same swing.
Both sides have live pages on the site. The Indiana Fever hub tracks every Fever market including game boards and season futures, and the Dallas Wings hub does the same for the Wings. For the wider slate and league-level markets, the WNBA prediction market page carries the full board across Kalshi and Polymarket.
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis on Friday, August 14, 2026, scheduled for a 7:30 PM ET tip. Winning contracts pay $1 per share and losing contracts settle at zero. The spread market settles on the final margin, so Indiana -6.5 pays only if the Fever win by seven points or more, and the 186.5 total settles on combined final points including overtime. Kalshi and Polymarket both settle off the official WNBA final score, typically within a few hours of the final buzzer. If the game is postponed, settlement moves to the rescheduled date rather than voiding; if it is suspended before becoming official, each platform applies its own cancellation rules.
As of August 14, 2026, Indiana is the 72.5c favorite, priced at 73c on Kalshi and 72c on Polymarket. Dallas trades at 27.5c (27c Kalshi, 28c Polymarket). Those cents map to roughly a 72.5% implied chance for the Fever and 27.5% for the Wings.
Indiana is favored at home. The Fever are 21-12 overall and 12-6 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, and the market has them at 72.5c on the moneyline and -6.5 on the spread at 54c. Dallas is 20-14 and 10-8 on the road.
Indiana is -6.5, trading at 54c on both Kalshi and Polymarket as of August 14, 2026. The total is 186.5, with the over at 53c on Polymarket and 55c for over 185.5 on Kalshi. DraftKings opened the game at Indiana -5.5 and a 187.5 total.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket list this game. Kalshi carries the deeper book, with about $38.0K of lifetime volume on the Indiana moneyline against roughly $3.3K on Polymarket, plus a full spread and total ladder. Player props are Polymarket-only and thin.
The injury report. Caitlin Clark (back) and Aliyah Boston (right lower leg) were both day-to-day on ESPN August 13 with August 14 return dates, and a late scratch of either would move a 72.5c favorite quickly. Dallas is already without Azzi Fudd, Aziaha James, and Jessica Shepard.