| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Mercury | +9.5 50%50% | O 172.5 46%48% | 22%22% | 22% Kalshi |
â–¶Aces | -9.5 50%50% | U 172.5 54%52% | 80%79% | 80% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Phoenix Mercury | +9.5 | O 172.5 | 22% Kalshi | |
â–¶Las Vegas Aces | -9.5 | U 172.5 | 80% Kalshi |
The Las Vegas Aces are the 79c home favorite over the Phoenix Mercury, and Kalshi and Polymarket price the moneyline identically at 79c, leaving no cross-platform edge on the side. Las Vegas (16-6) hosts Phoenix (8-15) with A'ja Wilson averaging 26.0 points per game against a Mercury team that has lost 15 of its 23 games. The spread sits near Las Vegas -9.5 and the total near 171.5, both priced close to coin flips on the board for the July 11, 2026 tip.
The Las Vegas Aces open as the 79c home favorite over the Phoenix Mercury on both Kalshi and Polymarket, a 79% implied probability that matches the on-court gap between a 16-6 contender and an 8-15 team. A'ja Wilson is scoring 26.0 points per game, and the moneyline has barely moved, with the Aces holding 79c across the overnight snapshot window while Phoenix ticked from 21c to 22c on Kalshi. The game tips July 11, 2026 at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas.
The Las Vegas Aces are 16-6 overall, 6-4 at home and a strong 10-2 on the road, and they price at 79c on both books with no cross-platform gap to exploit on the moneyline. A'ja Wilson anchors the favorite at 26.0 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per game, with Chelsea Gray running the offense at 7.3 assists per game. The market is treating this as a clear step down in class for the visitor.
The Phoenix Mercury come in at 22c, carrying an 8-15 record that includes a 3-8 mark at home and 5-7 on the road. Kahleah Copper leads Phoenix at 20.8 points per game, and Alyssa Thomas fills the sheet at 14.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, and a team-high 8.2 assists per game. At 22c the Mercury are a live underdog on price, but the flat overnight line shows no market conviction that this is a mispriced number.
The spread is where the game is actually contested. The board prices the Aces near a 9.5-point favorite: Kalshi lists Las Vegas to win by over 9.5 points at 50c, a true coin flip, while Polymarket's Las Vegas Aces -10.5 line sits at 46c. ESPN's number agrees at Las Vegas -9.5, so the moneyline chalk does not extend to a comfortable cover, and the 50c Kalshi price is the cleanest read on how close the market thinks the margin will be.
The total lands near 171.5. Polymarket's O/U 171.5 trades at 49c, Kalshi's over 172.5 sits at 47c on both books, and Kalshi's over 169.5 is 55c, framing a consensus total right around 171 to 172 points. ESPN posts the total at 171.5, matching the board. Behind the moneyline, the total is the second-most-liquid market on this game.
Polymarket carries the player-prop layer for this game. A'ja Wilson's points over 24.5 is priced at 29c and her rebounds over 9.5 at 30c, while Kahleah Copper's points over 20.5 sits at 31c for the Mercury's top scorer. Jackie Young's points over 16.5 trades at 33c, Alyssa Thomas's assists over 8.5 at 27c and rebounds over 6.5 at 33c, and Chelsea Gray's assists over 7.5 at 28c. These are the same names that decide the spread, so the props track the game script directly.
The factors that move this market:
The market resolves when the game goes final on July 11, 2026 at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas. The moneyline pays $1 per share on the Las Vegas Aces or Phoenix Mercury contract that wins, and the losing side settles at $0. The spread settles on the final margin against Las Vegas laying roughly 9.5 points, and the total settles on combined points scored against the posted line near 171.5. Kalshi and Polymarket both settle on the final score; a postponement past the scheduled date voids and refunds per each platform's rules.
The Aces and Mercury are two of the teams tracked on the WNBA hub, and Las Vegas remains a live name on the WNBA Finals market. For the rest of the July 11 slate, the Liberty at Lynx game pairs two 16-6 and 13-9 sides, while the Fire at Dream game carries a wider Atlanta -12.5 spread. Full cross-platform prices for every game render on the live board above and across the sports markets.
Resolves to the team that wins the game on July 11, 2026 at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas. The moneyline market pays $1 per share on the Las Vegas Aces or Phoenix Mercury contract that wins, and the losing contract settles at $0. The spread market settles on the final margin, with Las Vegas laying roughly 9.5 points, and the total market settles on combined points scored against the posted line near 171.5. Both Kalshi and Polymarket settle when the game is final; if the game is postponed past the scheduled date or voided, contracts refund per each platform's specific rules.
As of July 11, 2026, the Las Vegas Aces are the 79c moneyline favorite on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with the Phoenix Mercury at 22c. That implies about a 79% chance the Aces win at home.
The market resolves when the game goes final on July 11, 2026 at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas. The winning team's moneyline contract pays $1 per share and the losing side settles at $0.
The game trades on Kalshi (the KXWNBAGAME series) and Polymarket, with moneyline, spread, and total markets on both books plus player props on Polymarket.
The Las Vegas Aces are favored at 79c, roughly a 79% implied probability. Las Vegas is 16-6 and 10-2 on the road, while Phoenix is 8-15 and led by Kahleah Copper at 20.8 points per game.
Watch A'ja Wilson's status and the spread near Las Vegas -9.5, which the board prices as a coin flip at 50c on Kalshi. The total sits near 171.5, matching the ESPN line and the most-liquid market behind the moneyline.