| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Mystics | +6.5 46% | O 169.5 52% | 28%30% | 30% Polymarket |
â–¶Aces | -6.5 54% | U 169.5 48% | 72%71% | 72% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Washington Mystics | +6.5 | O 169.5 | 30% Polymarket | |
â–¶Las Vegas Aces | -6.5 | U 169.5 | 72% Kalshi |
Las Vegas is the 71.5c moneyline favorite at home over Washington on August 13, 2026 (72c Kalshi, 71c Polymarket), with the Mystics at 29c. These two met at the same building on August 11 with the Aces near 74c, and Las Vegas won 86-76, so the favorite got 2c cheaper after covering. The Aces are 23-11 and third in the West, the Mystics 19-13 and third in the East, and the season series is split 1-1. The live board above carries the current moneyline, the spread ladder and the 169.5 total.
Las Vegas beat Washington 86-76 at Michelob ULTRA Arena on August 11 and got cheaper for the rematch. The Aces traded near 74c in that first leg and sit at 71.5c on average for August 13 (72c Kalshi, 71c Polymarket), a 1c cross-platform gap that is about as tight as this board gets. A favorite that wins by 10 and then loses 2c is a market saying the first result confirmed the read rather than changed it: Las Vegas is the better team at home, Washington at 29c is a live road underdog, and the season series is still split 1-1.
Las Vegas is 23-11, third in the Western Conference and 4 games behind Minnesota, scoring 90.9 points per game and allowing 87.3. That profile is volatile rather than dominant. The Aces beat Atlanta 109-87 on August 3 and won at Indiana 86-84 on August 6, then lost at Minnesota 98-87 on August 8 and were beaten 111-71 at New York on August 9. The 40-point loss at Barclays Center is the most useful single data point in the sample, because it is the version of Las Vegas that makes a 29c Washington ticket rational.
A'ja Wilson is the reason the Mystics number does not go lower. She averages 26.3 points, 9.8 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game, and she posted 26 points, 13 rebounds and 4 blocks in the August 11 win. Chelsea Gray runs the offense at 7.1 assists per game and Jackie Young handed out 8 assists in that first meeting. The odd line on the Aces resume is the home-road split: 10-5 at Michelob ULTRA Arena versus 13-6 away from it.
Washington is 19-13, third in the East and 1.5 games behind Indiana, and the August 11 loss snapped a seven-game winning streak. Six of those seven wins came at CareFirst Arena, including 96-92 over Dallas on August 5, 79-74 over Atlanta on August 7 and 95-75 over Phoenix on August 9. The Mystics are the lowest-scoring team among the East's top four at 81.8 points per game, but they allow only 82.7, second-stingiest in the league behind Golden State. Shakira Austin (16.3 points, 9.6 rebounds) led them with 20 points in Las Vegas, Kiki Iriafen pulled 13 rebounds, and Sonia Citron is the team's leading scorer at 17.1 points per game. Washington is 8-7 on the road.
The underdog price also carries the July result. The Mystics won the July 22 meeting in Washington 100-99, a one-point game that is a large part of why 29c is not a throwaway number here.
The spread is where the two venues differ most. Kalshi prices Las Vegas -6.5 at 54c, close to a coin flip on the number, while Polymarket lists Las Vegas -7.5 at 47c. Those are internally consistent once you account for the extra point, and both bracket the sportsbook consensus of Las Vegas -6.5. Kalshi's ladder runs from Las Vegas -1.5 at 71c out to Las Vegas -18.5 at 17c, with Washington -1.5 at 28c on the other side. The August 11 margin was exactly 10, which sits inside the band from -6.5 to -12.5 that the board treats as the modal outcome.
The total is the softer read. Kalshi's core line is Over 169.5 at 52c, with alts running from Over 157.5 at 78c down to Over 181.5 at 26c. Combined season scoring averages come to 172.7 points per game, and the opponent-adjusted blend lands near 171, so the posted line sits under a naive projection. That is the market pricing Washington's pace and defense rather than the raw sum. The first meeting produced 162 combined points, comfortably under.
Kalshi's Las Vegas moneyline has not moved a cent through the pre-game snapshot window, holding flat at 72c. Polymarket's Washington side ticked from 29c to 30c over the same window. All of the meaningful movement is the two-day arc: near 74c on August 11, 72c on August 13. Cumulative volume on the board is roughly $10K across both platforms, so single tickets move the alt ladders more than they move the core price, and a flat moneyline on thin flow is an honest signal rather than a stale one.
Prop coverage is thin and mostly one-sided. Polymarket has Chelsea Gray over 6.5 assists at 38c against a 7.1 assists per game season average, the widest gap on the board between a posted line and a season number. Sonia Citron over 3.5 rebounds sits at 34c. Most of the remaining props, including A'ja Wilson points and Jackie Young rebounds, carry no two-sided price yet, so the moneyline, spread and total are the tradeable surface.
The moneyline resolves to the winner of the game at Michelob ULTRA Arena on August 13, 2026, tipping at 10:00 PM Eastern. Spread and total contracts settle off the same final score, overtime included. Both platforms mark the game final within minutes of the last whistle, and each winning contract pays $1 per share while the losing side pays $0.
A'ja Wilson workload: 26.3 points and 9.8 rebounds per game, and 26 and 13 in the August 11 win, is the single biggest input to the Las Vegas price.
Washington's defense against a fast home team: the Mystics allow 82.7 points per game, second-best in the league, against an Aces side averaging 90.9.
Cross-platform spread gap: Kalshi has Las Vegas -6.5 at 54c and Polymarket has Las Vegas -7.5 at 47c, the one line on this board where the two venues are not already aligned.
Series split at 1-1: Washington won 100-99 in July, Las Vegas won 86-76 on August 11, and the third meeting is at the same venue as the second.
Playoff seeding stakes: Las Vegas is 4 games behind Minnesota in the West and Washington is 1.5 games behind Indiana in the East, so both sides are still playing for position.
Total at 169.5: combined scoring averages point to 172.7 while the first meeting landed at 162, and the 52c core price reflects that split.
The Las Vegas Aces hub and the Washington Mystics hub carry every active market on each club, including the rest of this home stand. The WNBA prediction market hub ranks the full slate by cross-platform volume, and the other featured game on the same night is Los Angeles Sparks at New York Liberty, where the Liberty are laying a similar number after their own 111-71 blowout of these Aces.
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas on August 13, 2026, scheduled for 10:00 PM Eastern. Spread contracts settle on the final margin and total contracts on combined points, both including overtime. Each winning contract pays $1 per share and every losing contract pays $0. If the game is postponed and replayed on a later date, both platforms carry the contract to the rescheduled date; if it is canceled outright and not made up, contracts void and settle per each platform-specific cancellation rule.
As of August 13, 2026, Las Vegas is the 71.5c moneyline favorite (72c on Kalshi, 71c on Polymarket) and Washington is 29c (28c Kalshi, 30c Polymarket). That prices the Aces at roughly a 72% implied chance of winning.
Las Vegas is favored at home. The Aces are 23-11 and carry a 72c price on Kalshi, against a Washington side that is 19-13 overall and 8-7 on the road.
Kalshi prices Las Vegas -6.5 at 54c and Polymarket lists Las Vegas -7.5 at 47c, matching the sportsbook consensus of Las Vegas -6.5. The total sits at Over 169.5 for 52c, with alts from Over 157.5 at 78c to Over 181.5 at 26c.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket list this game. Kalshi carries the deeper spread and total ladders, Polymarket carries the player props, and roughly $10K in cumulative volume sits across the two venues as of August 13, 2026.
It resolves once the game goes final at Michelob ULTRA Arena on the night of August 13, 2026, tipping at 10:00 PM Eastern. Winning contracts pay $1 per share and losing contracts pay $0.
A'ja Wilson's availability is the biggest single price input after her 26-point, 13-rebound line on August 11. Also watch whether the Kalshi -6.5 spread at 54c drifts toward Polymarket's -7.5 at 47c, and whether the 169.5 total moves after a 162-point first meeting.