Live Las Vegas Raiders 2026 Super Bowl odds, AFC West division race, and roster movement markets tracked across the platforms covered by Prediction Genius.
The Las Vegas Raiders are one of the most widely followed franchises in NFL prediction markets, a function of a storied brand, a passionate national fanbase, and a new home in a marquee market. Across roughly ten active contracts, the deepest pools are the 2026-27 Super Bowl and AFC Championship futures, where the board consistently slots the Raiders in the longshot tier rather than among contenders. Coming off a 3-14 finish as of June 4, 2026, the durable swing factor on their price is roster reconstruction and quarterback stability, not any single result. Offseason player-movement markets, including whether cornerstone pass rusher Maxx Crosby stays in Las Vegas, drive a meaningful share of current interest. The live odds for every contract sit on the board above; the analysis below explains what those numbers mean.
The Super Bowl champion market is the single largest pool tracked for the Raiders, and it consistently prices the franchise well outside the contender tier. That placement is structural rather than reactionary. After a 3-14 season, the board reads Las Vegas as a rebuilding roster, and the gap between the Raiders and the perennial AFC favorites reflects roster construction, not noise. The conference title contract tells the clearer story: the AFC Championship futures slot the Raiders near the bottom of the field, well behind the teams the market treats as the AFC's top tier, including the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. For traders, the spread between the Super Bowl and AFC Championship prices is the cleanest read on how far the market thinks this roster is from January football. The live board above carries the exact cents.
The AFC West is one of the toughest divisions in football, and the Raiders enter the market as the clear underdog within it. The Kansas City Chiefs anchor the division on the futures board as the heavy favorite, with the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos forming the chase pack. The Raiders price reflects a roster the market believes still trails its three division rivals, a durable read tied to quarterback play and a defense that surrendered 432 points last season. This is a market that prices Las Vegas on roster strength rather than early results, which is why the division contract moves slowly in the offseason. Head-to-head meetings against Kansas City, Los Angeles, and Denver will drive the number once the season begins. For now, the live odds above show the current division standing.
The Raiders generate outsized prediction market interest relative to their on-field results, and the reasons are durable. The franchise carries one of the largest and most national fanbases in the league, the Las Vegas market gives the team perpetual narrative gravity, and the offseason has been dominated by roster questions. The most active Raiders-specific contracts right now are player-movement markets, including whether Maxx Crosby remains in Las Vegas, which trades heavily on the Yes side. Future catalysts that will move these markets include the 2026 NFL Draft fallout, training-camp roster decisions, and the trade deadline in the fall. The board above shows where each contract sits today; the swing factor underneath all of them is whether the front office can rebuild a competitive roster around its existing core.
Much of the Raiders' active market volume sits in binary roster contracts rather than traditional player props during the offseason. The board tracks whether pass rusher Maxx Crosby stays with the team, which trades firmly toward Yes, alongside speculative contracts on whether players like David Njoku, Tyreek Hill, George Pickens, Brandon Aiyuk, and Joey Bosa land in Las Vegas. Most of those incoming-player markets trade toward No, reflecting how the market weighs roster rumors against actual transaction probability. These markets exist because Crosby is the franchise cornerstone and the Raiders are an active name in trade speculation. The live board above carries current prices for each contract.
The Raiders own three Super Bowl titles, all won under the Oakland and Los Angeles banners: Super Bowl XI (1976 season), Super Bowl XV (1980 season), and Super Bowl XVIII (1983 season). The franchise relocated from Oakland to Los Angeles in 1982, returned to Oakland in 1995, and moved to Las Vegas in 2020, making it one of the most-relocated teams in NFL history. That championship pedigree is decades old, and the market weights the current roster on present construction rather than legacy. The Raiders have not reached a Super Bowl since the 2002 season, a drought that frames why the futures board prices the franchise as a rebuild rather than a contender.
As of June 4, 2026, the Raiders are not among the priced favorites in the 2026-27 Super Bowl champion market, where the Los Angeles Rams lead near 16.5c. In the AFC Championship market, the Raiders trade around 2.5c (3c on Kalshi, 2c on Polymarket), deep in the longshot tier.
Raiders futures trade on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with the AFC Championship contract pricing slightly higher on Kalshi (3c) than Polymarket (2c) as of June 4, 2026. The Super Bowl pool is the deepest book; division and player-movement markets carry thinner liquidity. More platforms get added over time.
Coverage includes the 2026-27 Super Bowl champion market, AFC Championship futures, the AFC West division race, NFL playoff participation, and offseason roster markets such as whether Maxx Crosby, David Njoku, and other players will be on the Raiders roster.
The Raiders last won the Super Bowl after the 1983 season (Super Bowl XVIII), as the Los Angeles Raiders. The franchise owns three championships total and last reached a Super Bowl after the 2002 season.
Roster reconstruction is the biggest durable driver. Coming off a 3-14 season with a minus-191 point differential, the market prices the Raiders as a rebuild, and quarterback stability plus the future of cornerstone Maxx Crosby carry the most weight on the futures board.
