Live 2026 FOMC rate-decision odds across hold, cut, and hike contracts for each scheduled Federal Reserve meeting, tracked across prediction markets.
The 2026 Fed rate decision board aggregates contracts tied to each of the eight scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meetings, spanning more than 50 active markets as of June 23, 2026. Each meeting carries its own set of contracts that ask whether the FOMC holds the federal funds target range steady, cuts, or hikes, with separate markets for the size of any move in 25-basis-point increments. Contracts resolve against the rate decision the Federal Reserve publishes in its post-meeting statement, so every market settles on an official, unambiguous outcome. The next scheduled FOMC meetings fall on July 28-29, September 15-16, October 27-28, and December 8-9, 2026, and the live top-markets and movers widgets above show where each contract prices today.
The 2026 Fed rate decision aggregate is organized by FOMC meeting, with the deepest books clustering around the meetings closest on the calendar. The core contract type for each meeting asks whether the Federal Reserve holds, cuts, or hikes the federal funds target range, and a second tier of contracts prices the magnitude of any move in 25-basis-point steps. The July, September, October, and December 2026 meetings carry the most active markets because they sit inside the trading window where incoming data still shapes the outcome. Markets for the July Fed rate decision, the September Fed rate decision, and the December Fed rate decision anchor the board. Earlier-in-year meetings such as the January, April, and June decisions remain listed for reference and resolution tracking. Refer to the live top-markets widget above for the current favorite on each meeting.
The FOMC meets eight times in 2026 on a published schedule: January 27-28, March 17-18, April 28-29, June 16-17, July 28-29, September 15-16, October 27-28, and December 8-9. Each meeting concludes with a statement and an updated rate decision, and four of those meetings (March, June, September, December) also release the Summary of Economic Projections and the dot plot, which historically draws the heaviest repricing. The structural question traders price across the cycle is the path of the federal funds rate rather than any single meeting: a string of holds followed by a cut prices differently than an immediate move. The market's read tends to track the Fed's stated data dependence, so the cycle reprices around scheduled CPI and employment releases between meetings rather than only on decision days.
Fed rate decision contracts diverge across prediction market platforms mainly because of resolution wording and book depth. Some venues phrase a meeting market as a single hold-cut-hike outcome while others list separate yes/no contracts for each basis-point increment, which can leave the implied probabilities slightly out of line between platforms. The meetings nearest on the calendar carry the deepest books and the tightest spreads, while contracts on later 2026 meetings trade thinner and can show wider gaps. Traders watching for divergence compare the same meeting's implied path across venues; the live board above shows the current spread on each contract, and specific platform prices are surfaced there rather than baked into this page.
Volume on the 2026 Fed rate decision board is driven by the scheduled data calendar between meetings. The monthly Consumer Price Index report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the monthly jobs report, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index are the recurring catalysts that reprice the contracts, because each release shifts the market's read on whether the FOMC holds or moves. Public remarks from the Fed chair and regional Fed presidents add a second catalyst layer, as does the dot plot at the March, June, September, and December meetings. The next material catalysts are the data releases ahead of the July 28-29 meeting, followed by the September 15-16 projections meeting. The live movers widget above tracks which meeting contracts repriced most on the latest data.
Coverage spans more than 50 active contracts tied to the eight scheduled 2026 FOMC meetings, including hold-cut-hike outcomes and separate markets for the size of any move in 25-basis-point increments for each meeting.
The deepest books sit on the meetings closest on the calendar, currently the July, September, October, and December 2026 decisions, because incoming data still shapes those outcomes. See the live board above for current pricing.
Each contract resolves against the federal funds target range the Federal Reserve announces in its post-meeting statement. The FOMC decision is the official source of truth, so every market settles on an unambiguous published outcome.
As of June 23, 2026, the highest-volume contracts cluster on the July 28-29 and September 15-16 FOMC meetings, which sit nearest on the calendar. The live top-markets widget above shows the current favorite outcome and exact prices on each platform.
Prices can diverge because platforms phrase meeting outcomes differently, some as a single hold-cut-hike market and others as separate basis-point contracts. Nearer meetings have deeper books and tighter spreads; the live board above shows current cross-platform spreads.