Economics7 ThresholdsFutures

Fed Rate Decision Sep 2026

Current Leader

Hold (no change)60%

Hike 25 bps at 39%(+21pt lead)

$2.4M volume7 thresholdsKalshi, Polymarket69d until resolution

Market ForecastChance by threshold

Market line4· the 50% crossing

Chance of reaching each threshold · the curve crosses 50% at the market's central line

Threshold Board7 thresholds

ThresholdChanceYesNo

>3.00Kalshi

98%98%2%

>3.25Kalshi

98%98%2%

>3.50Kalshi

98%98%2%

>3.75lineKalshi

42%42%58%

>4.00Kalshi

9%9%91%

>4.25Kalshi

5%5%95%

>4.75Kalshi

2%2%98%

Analysis

Analysis content will be generated by the pipeline.

Timeline

Market Created

Jul 10

We Are Here

Jul 10

Resolution

Sep 16

⚠Informational content only. Not financial or betting advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss.

Economics7 ThresholdsFutures

Fed Rate Decision Sep 2026

Current Leader

Hold (no change)60%

Hike 25 bps at 39%(+21pt lead)

$2.4M volume7 thresholdsKalshi, Polymarket69d until resolution

Market ForecastChance by threshold

Market line4· the 50% crossing

Chance of reaching each threshold · the curve crosses 50% at the market's central line

Threshold Board7 thresholds

ThresholdChanceYesNo

>3.00Kalshi

98%98%2%

>3.25Kalshi

98%98%2%

>3.50Kalshi

98%98%2%

>3.75lineKalshi

42%42%58%

>4.00Kalshi

9%9%91%

>4.25Kalshi

5%5%95%

>4.75Kalshi

2%2%98%

Analysis

Analysis content will be generated by the pipeline.

Timeline

Market Created

Jul 10

We Are Here

Jul 10

Resolution

Sep 16

⚠Informational content only. Not financial or betting advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss.