How many Fed rate cuts land in 2026 is the question this market answers, a ladder that runs from zero cuts up to 11. It carries roughly $34M in cumulative volume and trades on Polymarket, where the weight sits heavily on the low end of the count. The live board above ranks every rung with current prices; the market resolves after the final FOMC meeting of 2026 in December.
The Fed rate cuts 2026 market is a count ladder, not a yes-or-no bet. Instead of asking whether the Federal Reserve eases once, it asks exactly how many times the Committee lowers the federal funds target range across the calendar year, with separate rungs for zero, one, and every count up the line to 11. The Fed holds eight scheduled meetings in 2026, so the realistic band is narrow even though the ladder is long.
This is a Polymarket-only board. There is no matching Kalshi ladder on the number of 2026 cuts, so the pricing you see on the live board above is single-book, with no cross-platform spread to check it against. The shape is lopsided: the low-count rungs (zero and one) hold almost all of the roughly $34M in cumulative volume, while the middle and upper rungs trade as long-shot tail bets. Read it as a real two-outcome question wrapped in a wide menu, with a thin distribution of live longshots stacked behind the favorite.
The concentration on the bottom of the ladder tracks the macro backdrop. When inflation is still running above the 2% target and the labor market is holding, the FOMC has little reason to cut aggressively, and traders price that patience directly into the count. Each additional cut on the ladder requires another meeting where the data clearly justifies easing, and stacking several of those in a single year is a demanding path. That is why the higher rungs, four cuts and up, trade as cheap insurance against a fast-easing scenario rather than as base cases. The upside for those tickets is a growth scare that forces the Fed to move at back-to-back meetings.
The market resolves after the final FOMC meeting of 2026 in December, once the full-year count is known. It settles on the total number of times the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the federal funds target range during the calendar year, per the Fed's official policy statements. The rung matching the exact count pays out and every other rung resolves to zero.
For the single-meeting view, see the Fed rate hike odds for 2026 and the nearer-term Fed Rate Decision Jul 2026 odds, which price individual meetings rather than the full-year count. The macro tail that would drive the upper rungs is tracked on the US recession 2026 market. Browse more economics prediction markets or read the latest June CPI inflation odds.
Resolves based on the number of times the Federal Open Market Committee lowers the federal funds target range during calendar year 2026, as stated in official FOMC policy statements. Each scheduled FOMC meeting that results in a rate cut counts as one cut regardless of the size of the move. The market settles after the final FOMC meeting of 2026 in December 2026, once the full-year count is final. The rung matching the exact number of 2026 cuts pays $1 per share and all other rungs resolve to $0. The source of truth is the Federal Reserve's official policy announcements.
As of July 10, 2026, the market puts no cuts at 78c and a single cut at 14c on Polymarket, with the higher-count rungs of four or more cuts trading at 0c. See the live board above for real-time prices.
It resolves after the final FOMC meeting of 2026 in December, settling on the total number of times the Fed lowered the federal funds target range during the calendar year.
This ladder trades on Polymarket only. There is no matching Kalshi contract on the number of cuts, so there is no cross-platform spread on this question.
Zero cuts is the heavy favorite, followed by a single cut, while the four-plus-cut rungs sit near the bottom of the 11-rung ladder as long-shot tail bets.
Watch the 2026 FOMC meetings and the dot plot alongside core inflation and payroll releases; a sharp growth slowdown is the main path to the higher-count rungs before the December settlement.