The Fed Rate Decision October 2026 market resolved to no change on October 28, 2026, when the FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4% on a 10-2 vote. Kalshi and Polymarket both settled the hold bracket Yes that afternoon. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented for a 25 basis point hike, and the committee's September minutes had already pointed the next increase toward year end.
Resolved October 28, 2026.
The Fed Rate Decision October 2026 market resolved to no change. At 2:00 p.m. ET on October 28, 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee kept the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4% on a 10-2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented, both preferring a 25 basis point hike. The hold went in as a heavy favorite, at 96% on Kalshi and 95.5% on Polymarket at the October 27 close, one month after it had traded as low as 30%.
The statement left the range where the September 16 increase put it. It dropped September's line that the policy action would "support a timelier return" to 2% inflation and replaced it with a waiting brief: "The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent goal." It also said economic activity "is expanding at a strong pace," up from solid in September. Both dissenters had voted for the September hike, which passed 12-0.
Kalshi halted trading at 1:59 p.m. ET and settled all five brackets at 2:06 p.m. ET. Fed maintains rate resolved Yes, and Hike 25bps, Hike >25bps, Cut 25bps and Cut >25bps resolved No. Polymarket's "Fed Decision in October?" event agreed: its No change market closed at 4:01 p.m. ET and resolved Yes, while the 25 bps increase, 50+ bps increase, 25 bps decrease and 50+ bps decrease markets resolved No. The Polymarket event traded about $101.9M. The five Kalshi brackets traded about 22.4M contracts, 11.4M of them on the hold.
The October question was about timing, not direction. The dated record:
October carried no new projections, while the December 8-9 meeting does. Two voters wanted the next increase now. Ten did not.
Polymarket opened its October event on June 17 and closed its first full day, June 18, with no change at 59.5% and a 25 bps hike at 22.5%. Kalshi listed its brackets in September 2025 but traded them thinly before August, so the table starts at the 90-day mark. Kalshi prices are midnight ET daily closes; Polymarket prices are taken at the same moment.
| Date | Kalshi: hold | Polymarket: no change | Kalshi: hike 25 bps | Polymarket: hike 25 bps |
| July 30 (90 days out) | 68% | 68.5% | 23% | 22.5% |
| September 16 (September hike) | 56% | 54.5% | 45% | 45.5% |
| September 28 (30 days out) | 30% | 31.5% | 70% | 68.5% |
| October 2 (jobs report) | 82% | 82.5% | 19% | 17.5% |
| October 14 (CPI report) | 76% | 75.5% | 24% | 23.5% |
| October 21 (7 days out) | 89% | 87.5% | 11% | 12.5% |
| October 27 (day before) | 96% | 95.5% | 5% | 4% |
The September hike flipped the board. From September 18 through September 28 the hold closed below 50% on both venues every day, and the 25 bps hike became the favorite, peaking at 70% on Kalshi on September 28. The reversal was abrupt: the hold closed at 55% on Kalshi on September 29 and did not close below 75% again from October 2 on.
Did the market get it right? On the day, yes, and early: the hold closed at 86% or higher on Kalshi every day from October 16 on. Thirty days out it had the wrong favorite, pricing an October hike at 70%. The two venues moved together throughout, never more than 1.5 points apart on the hold at any date in the table.
The next FOMC meeting is December 8-9, 2026, with a fresh set of projections, and the Fed Rate Decision December 2026 odds resolve on the statement released December 9. On November 4, 2026, that board priced a 25 bps hike at about 83% on both venues.
The year-long boards settle by December 31: the next Fed rate hike market, the no Fed rate cuts in 2026 market and the number of Fed rate cuts in 2026. For the meeting that set this one up, see the Fed Rate Decision September 2026 result, and for the dissents, the Cook and Hammack dissent analysis. Every live rates and inflation board is on the economics markets hub.
Resolves to the change in the federal funds target range announced in the FOMC statement at the conclusion of the October 27-28, 2026 meeting, measured against the 3.75% to 4% range in place beforehand. The five brackets are no change, a 25 basis point increase, an increase of more than 25 basis points (Polymarket's 50+ bps bracket), a 25 basis point cut, and a cut of more than 25 basis points. Polymarket measures the change in the upper bound of the range and rounds a move that is not a multiple of 25 basis points up to the next bracket. The outcomes are mutually exclusive; on Kalshi, a canceled meeting resolves to the hold, and on Polymarket, no statement by the end date of the next scheduled meeting resolves to no change. Each winning contract pays 1 dollar per share and every other bracket settles at zero. Kalshi settled Fed maintains rate Yes and the other four brackets No at 2:06 p.m. ET on October 28, 2026, and Polymarket's No change market closed at 4:01 p.m. ET that day and resolved Yes, with its other four brackets resolving No.
No. On October 28, 2026, the FOMC kept the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4% on a 10-2 vote, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point hike.
It resolved on October 28, 2026. Kalshi settled Fed maintains rate Yes at 2:06 p.m. ET and Polymarket's No change market closed at 4:01 p.m. ET and resolved Yes, with the other four brackets settling No on both venues.
The hold closed at 96% on Kalshi and 95.5% on Polymarket on October 27, the day before the decision. A week out, on October 21, it was 89% and 87.5%, but on September 28 a 25 bps hike was the favorite at 70% on Kalshi.
Timing. The committee had raised rates on September 16 and its minutes said most participants expected another increase by year end, and ten of twelve voters chose to hold in October despite a September CPI report showing prices up 3.7% on the year.
The Fed Rate Decision December 2026 market resolves on the statement released December 9, 2026, at the end of the December 8-9 meeting. On November 4, 2026, it priced a 25 bps hike at about 83%.