The Donald J. Trump $250 Bill Act, filed as H.R. 1761, sits behind this market, and the price treats it as a deep longshot. No living person has appeared on United States paper currency since an 1866 statute reserved the honor for the deceased, and no new denomination has entered circulation in decades. A Yes needs Congress to amend that law and enact the note before the deadline. This market spans roughly $789K in cumulative volume on Kalshi and Polymarket and resolves January 1, 2027. See the live board above for current prices.
A $250 bill has never existed in American history, and the largest note in circulation today is the $100. That gap is the whole market. The Donald J. Trump $250 Bill Act would create the denomination from scratch and put a sitting president's face on it, two firsts stacked on top of each other, and the board prices the odds of both clearing Congress before year-end as remote. The Yes side is a bet that a novelty currency proposal completes the full path into law inside a single session.
Representative Joe Wilson of South Carolina introduced H.R. 1761, the Donald J. Trump $250 Bill Act, on February 27, 2025, and it was referred to the House Financial Services Committee. The bill would direct the Treasury to print a $250 note carrying Trump's portrait, framed as a commemoration of the semiquincentennial, the 250th anniversary of American independence marked on July 4, 2026. As of mid-2026 the bill remained in committee and had not passed the House or the Senate.
The legal obstacle is specific. Federal law under 31 U.S.C. Section 5114, the 1866 Thayer amendment, states that only the portrait of a deceased individual may appear on United States currency and securities. Wilson's bill would amend that language to add an exception for a person who is or has been President of the United States. Without that change, the Treasury cannot legally issue a note bearing Trump's likeness while he is alive.
The executive branch has moved on the design in parallel. On May 28, 2026, the Treasury confirmed it was taking steps toward the note, and reporting indicated the Bureau of Engraving and Printing had received a proposed design featuring Trump's portrait, a 250th anniversary logo, and his signature. That work is preparatory. The market does not resolve on a design or a Treasury announcement. It resolves only if the statute changes and the note is mandated into law.
The market resolves Yes if a bill mandating the creation and issuance of a $250 United States note featuring Donald Trump's likeness becomes law before January 1, 2027. Becoming law means passage by both chambers of Congress and the president's signature, not a committee vote, a Treasury design, or an executive action. If no qualifying law is enacted by the deadline, the market resolves No. Kalshi lists the contract under the ticker KX250DOLLARBILL-27.
For another Trump-era proposition on the same before-2027 clock, the Trump Greenland market runs a similar novelty structure. Longer-dated coverage includes the 2028 Republican nominee odds and the U.S. House control market. Browse the full politics prediction markets hub for the rest of the board.
This market resolves Yes if legislation mandating the creation and issuance of a $250 United States bill featuring Donald Trump's likeness is enacted into law before January 1, 2027. Enactment requires passage by both the House and the Senate and the president's signature. A committee vote, a Treasury design, a Bureau of Engraving and Printing proof, or any executive action short of a signed statute does not qualify, because 31 U.S.C. Section 5114 still bars living individuals from appearing on United States currency until Congress amends it. If no qualifying law is on the books by the deadline, the market resolves No. The primary contract trades on Kalshi under ticker KX250DOLLARBILL-27, with a paired market on Polymarket.
As of July 18, 2026, Kalshi prices Yes at 7c and No at 93c, while Polymarket has Yes at 2c and No at 98c. The blended Yes price near 4c implies the market gives the note roughly a 5% chance of becoming law before 2027.
It resolves on January 1, 2027. A Yes requires a law mandating the $250 note to be enacted before that date, so a committee vote or a Treasury design does not count.
The market trades on both Kalshi, under ticker KX250DOLLARBILL-27, and Polymarket. Cumulative volume across the two books is roughly $789K.
Federal law under 31 U.S.C. Section 5114 allows only deceased individuals on United States currency. H.R. 1761 would have to amend that 1866 statute and then clear both chambers of Congress.
Watch for any House Financial Services Committee markup of H.R. 1761, since the bill must clear committee before a floor vote. A Senate companion bill or a signed statute amending 31 U.S.C. Section 5114 would be the only developments that move Yes materially before January 1, 2027.