| Spread | Total | ML | Main ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Kondratavicius | — | — | 74%74% | 74% Polymarket |
▶Petroski | — | — | 27%27% | 27% Polymarket |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Main ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Mantas Kondratavicius | — | — | 74% Polymarket | |
▶Andre Petroski | — | — | 27% Polymarket |
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Mantas Kondratavicius is a 74c favorite over Andre Petroski at 27c on Kalshi as of November 6, roughly a 74% implied chance for the 27-year-old Lithuanian. Kondratavicius is 9-1 and won his UFC debut in March, while Petroski (13-7) has lost three straight, the last two by knockout, and the line has stayed inside a 73c to 76c band all week.
Kalshi prices Mantas Kondratavicius at 74c and Andre Petroski at 27c as of November 6. The Petroski side implies about a 27% chance, a clear underdog price for a 35-year-old who has dropped three in a row. The board is Kalshi only, with about $5.7K in volume and no paired Polymarket leg.
The middleweight bout is on the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs Walker on Saturday, November 7, 2026 at Meta APEX in Las Vegas. UFC.com and ESPN list prelims at 5 PM ET and the main card at 8 PM ET. Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Johnny Walker headlines, and the co-main is Tatiana Suarez vs Virna Jandiroba.
This line has barely moved. Kondratavicius opened November 2 at 75c, touched 76c, and has traded between 73c and 75c every day since. Petroski has stayed between 27c and 29c over the same stretch. Across our Kalshi captures from Thursday evening into Friday, Kondratavicius ticked between 73c and 74c and Petroski held 27c. The market set this price early and has not been given a reason to change it.
Kondratavicius (9-1, age 27) has 6 knockout wins, 2 submission wins and 5 first-round finishes per UFC.com. He won on Dana White's Contender Series in September 2025, then took a unanimous decision over Antonio Trocoli in his UFC debut on March 21, 2026. He is the bigger man on paper at 6'2" with a 75.5 inch reach.
Petroski (13-7, age 35) is 6'0" with a 73 inch reach, so he gives up 2 inches of height and 2.5 inches of reach. His recent run is the core of this price: a unanimous decision loss to Edmen Shahbazyan on June 14, 2025, a first-round TKO loss to Cam Rowston on September 27, 2025, and a second-round KO loss to Cody Brundage on May 16, 2026. ESPN lists 5 of his 7 career losses by knockout or TKO, and he has 4 submission wins as his other path.
The 74c price is the market's read that size, age and momentum all point one way. Petroski's best route at 27c is a grappling fight, since his 4 submission wins are the one category where his record outpaces Kondratavicius, who has 2.
Durability is the first question: Petroski has been stopped in each of his last two fights. Kondratavicius has 6 knockouts in 9 wins, which lines up directly with that weakness. The thin $5.7K book means a single larger order on fight night can move this line more than the deeper books on the card. For the division picture, see the UFC middleweight champion market, and the full card is on the UFC hub.
The Kalshi moneyline resolves to the fighter who wins the Mantas Kondratavicius vs Andre Petroski middleweight bout on the UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs Walker card. Kalshi's contract describes the fight as originally scheduled for November 6, 2026; UFC.com and ESPN list the bout on the Saturday, November 7 card, and Kalshi's rules keep the market open if the fight begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start. The winning fighter's contract pays $1 per share and the other pays $0. A draw or no contest resolves both contracts to 50c, and if the fight is cancelled or not started within 48 hours, both contracts resolve to a fair price under Kalshi's rules. Results changed after the contract expires do not affect resolution.
As of November 6, 2026, Kalshi prices Mantas Kondratavicius at 74c and Andre Petroski at 27c, about a 74% implied chance for Kondratavicius.
The middleweight bout is on the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs Walker on Saturday, November 7, 2026 at Meta APEX in Las Vegas. Prelims begin at 5 PM ET per UFC.com and ESPN.
The fight trades on Kalshi as a two-way winner market with about $5.7K in volume. Our board carries only the Kalshi leg for this bout.
Kondratavicius is the favorite at 74c on Kalshi as of November 6. He is 9-1 and won his UFC debut on March 21, 2026, while Petroski enters on a three-fight losing streak.
The winning fighter's contract pays $1 per share. A draw or no contest pays 50c on both sides, and a fight that is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its scheduled start resolves to a fair price under Kalshi's rules.
Watch whether Petroski can take it to the mat. Kondratavicius has 6 knockout wins and Petroski was stopped in each of his last two fights, so a grappling fight is the underdog's clearest path.