| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
CHS | +6.5 — | O 47.5 — | 0% | — |
UTM | -6.5 — | U 47.5 — | 100% | 100% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
CHS | +6.5 — | O 47.5 — | 0% | — |
UTM | -6.5 — | U 47.5 — | 100% | 100% Kalshi |
UT Martin is the overwhelming home favorite over Chicago State on Kalshi, trading at 98c against the Cougars at 3c as of September 2, 2026. The Skyhawks were the Ohio Valley Conference preseason favorite and entered 2026 ranked No. 22 before losing 36-24 at home to Central Arkansas, while Chicago State is playing the second game in program history after a 44-28 debut loss to NAIA Roosevelt. The board carries roughly $32K in lifetime volume on a Kalshi-only moneyline, with no Polymarket leg and no spread or total posted.
Kalshi has priced this one about as close to a formality as a college football board gets: UT Martin at 98c and Chicago State at 3c as of September 2, 2026. The structural reason is plain. UT Martin was picked as the Ohio Valley Conference preseason favorite and entered 2026 ranked No. 22, while Chicago State is playing the second game in program history as a first-year Division I independent that does not join the Northeast Conference until 2027. Kickoff is 6:00 PM CT (7:00 PM ET) Saturday at Hardy M. Graham Stadium in Martin, Tennessee, streaming on ESPN+.
UT Martin finished 2025 at 6-6, going 6-2 against Ohio Valley Conference opponents with wins over Southeast Missouri State, Western Illinois, Gardner-Webb, Eastern Illinois, Tennessee State and Charleston Southern. Jason Simpson is in his 21st season running the program with a 129-96 career record. The Skyhawks did not open 2026 the way the preseason billing suggested: they lost 36-24 at home to Central Arkansas on August 27, giving up 471 total yards while managing 296 of their own. Julian Calvez went 13-of-24 for 147 yards with 2 interceptions, Tommy Ansley carried 10 times for 61 yards and 2 touchdowns, and UT Martin converted 3 of 11 third downs. That result is priced in here as a bad night against a peer program, not as evidence the Skyhawks are vulnerable to a first-year roster. The Central Arkansas board is the reference point for how the market handled UT Martin against an actual OVC-caliber opponent.
Chicago State is the newest football program in Division I. The Cougars hired Bobby Rome II as their first head coach, play home games at SeatGeek Stadium in Bridgeview, Illinois, and opened the program on August 29 with a 44-28 loss to NAIA Roosevelt. The offense was not the problem in that debut: Ashton Pannell threw for 264 yards and 3 touchdowns on 29-of-40 passing, and Chicago State finished with 387 total yards to Roosevelt's 390. The problems were 3 turnovers to Roosevelt's 1 and a 3-of-13 mark on third down. Losing to an NAIA opponent in week one is the exact result that produces a 3c price against a ranked FCS team on the road, because the class jump from Roosevelt to UT Martin is larger than the jump the Cougars just failed to clear.
A 98c favorite is not a game the board thinks is competitive, and there is no honest upset case to build from this data. The useful read is what the residual 3c is actually pricing: a first-year roster that moved the ball well enough to hang 387 yards on someone, a UT Martin defense that just surrendered 471, and the general variance of a September FCS game. The board is moneyline only. There is no spread and no total posted, so the market gives no tradeable expression of margin, which is the question a 98c game actually turns on. Lifetime volume sits near $32K, split $23.9K on the UT Martin side and $8.6K on Chicago State.
This is a Kalshi-only board with a single book. Polymarket carries no leg on this game, so nothing here is a cross-platform consensus and there is no second price to compare against. Across the 20 captures our snapshot series holds from September 1 to September 2, UT Martin traded at 98c the entire window with one print at 97c, and Chicago State moved from 4c to 3c. That is a pinned line, not a moving one, and the window is roughly 24 hours rather than an open-to-now series.
The market resolves to the team that wins the game at Hardy M. Graham Stadium on September 5, 2026. Kalshi's rules pay the winning team's contract at $1 per share and settle the other side at $0, with settlement triggered once a winner is declared. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the scheduled kickoff, the market stays open and settles on the official final result. If it is cancelled or does not start within that 48-hour window, Kalshi resolves the market at a fair price. The listed close is September 7, 2026, which gives the exchange room behind a weather delay in a west Tennessee September.
UT Martin's season opener trades on the Central Arkansas vs UT Martin board, which is the cleanest comparison for how this market prices the Skyhawks against a real opponent. For the rest of the September 5 FCS slate, Tennessee State at Georgia and Furman at Tennessee show how the board handles similar mismatches when an FBS host is involved, and North Alabama at Arkansas is the same shape in the SEC. Every college board we carry, including the full Saturday card, sits on the NCAA football hub.
Resolves to the team that wins the Chicago State at UT Martin college football game played at Hardy M. Graham Stadium in Martin, Tennessee on September 5, 2026, with kickoff scheduled for 6:00 PM CT. The winning team's contract pays $1 per share and the losing side settles at $0, with settlement triggered on Kalshi once a winner is declared. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of the originally scheduled start, the market remains open and settles on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled kickoff, Kalshi resolves the market at a fair price. The listed market close is September 7, 2026.
As of September 2, 2026, UT Martin trades at 98c and Chicago State at 3c on Kalshi. Those are the only two contracts on the board, and the live prices above update as the market moves toward the September 5 kickoff.
Kalshi only. Both moneyline contracts sit under the KXNCAAFGAME series for the September 5, 2026 game, and Polymarket carries no leg, so there is no cross-platform price to compare on this board.
UT Martin at 98c implies roughly a 98% chance of winning at home. The Skyhawks were the Ohio Valley Conference preseason favorite and entered 2026 ranked No. 22, while Chicago State is in its first Division I season as an independent.
It resolves on the final result of the game at Hardy M. Graham Stadium on September 5, 2026, kickoff 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+. Kalshi settles once a winner is declared, with a listed market close of September 7, 2026.
Turnovers and third down. Chicago State lost 44-28 to NAIA Roosevelt on August 29 despite 387 total yards, undone by 3 giveaways and a 3-of-13 third-down night, and UT Martin allowed 471 yards in its own 36-24 opening loss.