| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama | +7.5 — | O 51.5 — | 0% | — |
Tulane | -7.5 — | U 51.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
South Alabama | +7.5 — | O 51.5 — | 0% | — |
Tulane | -7.5 — | U 51.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
Tulane is roughly a 10-point home favorite in Week 2 despite being the only team in this game carrying a loss. The Green Wave opened with a 17-3 defeat at Duke on September 5, managing 258 total yards and 10 first downs, while South Alabama is 1-0 after a 39-14 win over Southeastern Louisiana in which the Jaguars ran for 241 yards and held the ball for 40:09. The board has Tulane near 76% and South Alabama near 24% as of September 11, with about $20.7K in lifetime volume across the game. Kickoff is 7:00 PM ET Saturday at Yulman Stadium in New Orleans on ESPN+.
Tulane is the favorite here on reputation and roster, not on anything the Green Wave showed in Week 1. They scored three points at Duke on September 5, went 3-of-14 on third down, ran for 54 yards on the night and held the ball for 23:25. South Alabama did the opposite against an FCS opponent: 395 yards, 241 of them on the ground, 27 first downs, zero turnovers and 40:09 of possession in a 39-14 win. The market has looked past both results. Tulane sits near 76% on Kalshi and 77% on Polymarket, South Alabama near 24% on both, as of the afternoon of September 11.
This is Tulane's home opener at Yulman Stadium after a road start, and the American Conference member is favored over a Sun Belt West visitor that has already banked a win. The pricing is a statement that Week 1 told the market very little: Tulane's opener came against a Power Four team on the road, South Alabama's against Southeastern Louisiana at home, and neither result moved the number much off where a preseason projection would have put it.
Movement has been minimal. Across roughly 23 hours of captures beginning the afternoon of September 10, the Tulane moneyline held at 76% in every Kalshi observation and South Alabama held at 24% in all 27 captures on the leg. The Tulane -10.5 spread contract drifted from 47% to 46% over the same window. That is the entire snapshot history this board carries, so the honest read is a line that has been parked, not a line that has been tested.
Volume distribution is worth naming. The South Alabama moneyline leg carries more lifetime Kalshi volume than the Tulane leg, roughly $2.2K against $1.6K, on a board with about $20.7K total. Heavier money on a 24% underdog is lottery-ticket buying rather than informed positioning, and it is not a reason to fade the favorite.
The spread ladder puts the real number between Tulane -9.5, priced at 52%, and Tulane -10.5, priced at 46%. Those two rungs also hold the largest pools on the board, about $4.5K and $4.6K respectively, which is where the informed opinion on this game actually sits. DraftKings has the same game at Tulane -9.5 with a total of 49.5, so the prediction market and the sportsbook number are on top of each other.
The total ladder agrees. Over 50.5 points is priced at 47% and Over 47.5 at 56%, which brackets a projected total right around 49 to 50 points. Team totals split it the way the spread implies: Tulane over 30.5 points sits at 48% and South Alabama over 19.5 points at 52%, so the market's modal score is roughly Tulane 30, South Alabama 20. For a Tulane offense that produced three points a week ago, a 30-point implied team total is the most aggressive number on this board.
The moneyline pays on the winner of the game, scheduled for Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET at Yulman Stadium. Spread and total contracts settle against the final score, including overtime, once the game goes final. Settlement follows on Kalshi and Polymarket after the official result posts, typically within hours of the final whistle.
Tulane's offense: 258 total yards, 10 first downs and 3-of-14 on third down in the 17-3 loss at Duke, against a 30-point implied team total this week.
South Alabama's ground game: 241 rushing yards and a 40:09 possession edge in Week 1, the formula that keeps a double-digit underdog within the number.
The spread pivot: Tulane -9.5 at 52% and -10.5 at 46% hold the board's two biggest pools, so the game hinges on whether the margin clears ten.
The total near 49.5: Over 50.5 at 47% prices a game neither team produced in Week 1, when the two combined for 42 points against very different competition.
Underdog volume: the South Alabama moneyline leg carries more lifetime Kalshi volume than the Tulane leg, which reads as lottery-ticket buying rather than a price signal.
Home opener context: Tulane's first game at Yulman Stadium this season, 7:00 PM ET on ESPN+, after opening on the road at Duke.
More Week 2 boards on the same slate: South Florida vs Army at Michie Stadium, Memphis vs Boise State at Albertsons Stadium, and Southern Miss vs Auburn at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Follow both teams here on the Tulane and South Alabama hubs, or browse the full NCAA football board.
Resolves to the team that wins the game between South Alabama and Tulane, scheduled for Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET at Yulman Stadium in New Orleans. Moneyline contracts pay $1 per share on the winning team and $0 on the loser, with overtime counting toward the official result. Spread contracts settle against the final margin and total contracts against combined points scored, overtime included. Kalshi and Polymarket settle once the official final score is posted. If the game is postponed to a later date, contracts follow each platform's postponement rules; if it is canceled outright with no result, contracts void per platform terms.
As of the afternoon of September 11, 2026, Tulane is priced near 76% to win and South Alabama near 24%. The live board above carries the current numbers on the moneyline, spread and total.
Tulane is the favorite at roughly 76% implied probability, and the spread market sits between Tulane -9.5 at 52% and Tulane -10.5 at 46%. DraftKings lists the same game at Tulane -9.5.
The market projects about 49 to 50 combined points. Over 50.5 points is priced at 47% and Over 47.5 at 56%, with DraftKings posting a total of 49.5.
The game kicks off at 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, September 12, 2026 at Yulman Stadium in New Orleans and streams on ESPN+. Contracts settle once the official final score is posted, usually within hours of the finish.
Watch whether Tulane's offense improves on the 258 yards it managed at Duke, since the market has the Green Wave implied for about 30 points. Also watch the spread pool, where roughly $9.1K of lifetime volume is split across the -9.5 and -10.5 rungs.