Buccaneers vs Bears Prediction Market Odds, November 8, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Main ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Buccaneers | +6.5 51%51% | O 64.5 8%7% | 26%24% | 26% Kalshi |
▶Bears | -6.5 49%49% | U 64.5 92%93% | 71%71% | 71% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Main ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +6.5 | O 64.5 | 26% Kalshi | |
▶Chicago Bears | -6.5 | U 64.5 | 71% Kalshi |
No player props available for this game.
Chicago is a 73c favorite over Tampa Bay on both Kalshi and Polymarket as of November 3, after dipping to 67c on Kalshi during Monday's game at Seattle and recovering to 73c to 74c once the 34-17 win went final. The Bears (6-2, +54 point differential) host the Buccaneers (3-5, +27) on Sunday Night Football at Soldier Field, with the market pricing Chicago near a 6-point favorite and the total near 47.
Chicago is a 73c home favorite over Tampa Bay on both Kalshi and Polymarket as of November 3, back at its pre-Monday level after the Bears' 34-17 win at Seattle. The Bears (6-2) host the Buccaneers (3-5) at Soldier Field on Sunday Night Football, November 8 at 8:20 PM ET on NBC, on six days of rest after that Monday night trip.
Buccaneers vs Bears Moneyline Read
As of the morning of November 3, Chicago trades 73c on Kalshi and 73c on Polymarket, and Tampa Bay trades 28c on both. The two venues agree to the cent, so there is no cross-platform value on the moneyline in this game. Kalshi carries the liquidity: about $303K of volume on the Chicago side alone, by far the largest pool on the board.
The prediction market is more confident than ESPN's model. ESPN's matchup predictor gives Chicago a 62.9% win probability, roughly 10 points below the 73c market. DraftKings lists the Bears at -270 on ESPN's odds feed, which lines up with the 73c market rather than the model. The books and the exchanges agree with each other; the power rating is the outlier.
The intraday tape tells that story. Chicago traded 71c to 72c on Kalshi through Monday daytime, slid to 67c around kickoff of the Seattle game, and climbed to 74c by about midnight ET as the 34-17 win went final. It has held 73c to 74c since. Across 58 Kalshi captures from 11 AM ET Monday to Tuesday morning, the full range was 67c to 74c. On a longer view, Kalshi's daily closes had Chicago between 72c and 74c from October 28 to November 1, so Monday's win restored the price rather than raising it.
Chicago is 6-2 (3-1 at home, 3-1 on the road) with 214 points scored and 160 allowed, a +54 differential. The Bears have won four of their last five: 23-12 over the Jets, 31-23 at Atlanta, 30-24 over New England and 34-17 at Seattle, with the lone loss 31-7 at Green Bay. Tampa Bay is 3-5 (1-4 at home, 2-1 on the road) with 178 scored and 151 allowed, a +27 differential that is better than its record. The Buccaneers have won two straight, 43-13 at Carolina and 16-0 over Atlanta.
Buccaneers vs Bears Spread and Total
The spread ladder puts the market's number at about 6. Chicago -6.5 trades 49c on both venues and -5.5 trades 55c on Kalshi and 54c on Polymarket, so the median margin sits between 5.5 and 6.5. Chicago -3.5 is 61c and -7.5 is 43c on Kalshi. DraftKings has the Bears -6 per ESPN. On Polymarket, the -6.5 line moved from 42c Monday morning to 49c Tuesday, a 7c move toward Chicago that matches the moneyline recovery.
The total centers near 47. The over 46.5 trades 52c on Kalshi and 51c on Polymarket, the over 44.5 is 56c and the over 48.5 is 44c. DraftKings lists 46.5. Chicago's games have averaged 46.8 combined points and Tampa Bay's have averaged 41.1, so the market total sits on the Bears' profile, with the Buccaneers' defense (18.9 points allowed per game) pulling toward the under.
Team totals show the one cross-platform split worth noting. Tampa Bay's over 20.5 points trades 47c on Kalshi and 49c on Polymarket, a 2c gap that makes Kalshi the cheaper venue for the Buccaneers over. Chicago's over 26.5 trades 54c on Kalshi and 53c on Polymarket, which implies a Bears median of about 27 against a Buccaneers median near 20.
Buccaneers vs Bears Key Matchups
Chicago's offense runs on D'Andre Swift, who has 545 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns per ESPN and scored three times at Seattle on Monday. Caleb Williams has completed 112 of 158 passes for 1,267 yards, 6 touchdowns and 1 interception, and went 24 of 34 for 247 yards against the Seahawks. Luther Burden III leads the receivers with 42 catches for 547 yards. ESPN's trade-deadline tracker reported on November 3 a deal sending defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons to Chicago.
Tampa Bay has leaned on the ground game. Bucky Irving leads the team with 728 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns, and against Atlanta on November 1 Irving (27 carries, 170 yards) and Kenny Gainwell (25 carries, 140 yards) carried the offense while Baker Mayfield attempted three passes, per the ESPN box score. Mayfield's season line is 68 of 110 for 679 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.
Injuries on ESPN's report as of November 3: Tampa Bay wide receiver Emeka Egbuka (foot) is questionable, linebacker Yaya Diaby is out with an MCL injury, and wide receiver Jalen McMillan and cornerback Josh Hayes are on injured reserve. Chicago defensive end Grady Jarrett (groin), running back Kyle Monangai (thumb), defensive tackle Kentavius Street (knee) and cornerback Malik Muhammad II (toe) are questionable, and safety Coby Bryant is on injured reserve.
When the Buccaneers vs Bears Market Resolves
The game kicks off at 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, November 8, 2026 at Soldier Field in Chicago (01:20 UTC on November 9, which is why Polymarket's event is dated November 9). The moneyline settles to the winner once the game is final, and spread and total contracts settle on the official final score, overtime included. Both venues settle after the result is official.
Key Buccaneers vs Bears Catalysts
- The model gap: ESPN's predictor has Chicago at 62.9% against a 73c market and a -270 DraftKings price.
- Short week: Chicago plays on six days of rest after Monday night at Seattle; Tampa Bay has seven.
- Tampa Bay's run game: Irving and Gainwell combined for 310 rushing yards against Atlanta.
- Egbuka's foot: Tampa Bay's receiver is questionable as of November 3, with McMillan already on injured reserve.
- Buccaneers team total: the over 20.5 is 2c cheaper on Kalshi (47c) than Polymarket (49c).
Related Buccaneers vs Bears Markets
Chicago's result feeds directly into the NFC North division market, where the Bears trail 6-1 Minnesota, and Tampa Bay's into the NFC South division market. The Bears playoff market, the Buccaneers playoff market, the Bears season win total and the Buccaneers season win total all reprice on Sunday night. For team context, see the Chicago Bears hub, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hub, and the full NFL board.
Resolution Criteria
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears game played Sunday, November 8, 2026 at Soldier Field, scheduled for 8:20 PM ET (Polymarket dates the event November 9 in UTC). Spread, total and team-total contracts settle on the official final score, including any overtime. Kalshi and Polymarket each settle once the result is official; tie handling follows each venue's own contract rules, and Polymarket lists a separate Tie market. If the game is postponed or canceled, each venue's postponement rules apply.
Key Factors
- ESPN's predictor has Chicago at 62.9% against a 73c market and a -270 DraftKings price
- Chicago on six days of rest after its Monday night win at Seattle
- Tampa Bay's run game: Irving and Gainwell combined for 310 rushing yards against Atlanta
- Emeka Egbuka questionable with a foot injury as of November 3
- Buccaneers team total over 20.5 is 2c cheaper on Kalshi (47c) than Polymarket (49c)
What are the current Buccaneers vs Bears odds?
As of November 3, 2026, Chicago trades 73c on both Kalshi and Polymarket and Tampa Bay trades 28c on both. That implies about a 73% chance of a Bears win.
What time is Buccaneers vs Bears on Sunday Night Football?
Kickoff is 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, November 8, 2026 at Soldier Field in Chicago, on NBC per ESPN's schedule. It is the NFL Week 9 Sunday night game.
What is the Buccaneers vs Bears spread and total?
Chicago -6.5 trades 49c on both venues and -5.5 trades about 55c as of November 3, so the market's margin is about 6 points. The over 46.5 trades 52c on Kalshi and 51c on Polymarket, putting the total near 47.
Where can I trade the Buccaneers vs Bears game?
The game trades on Kalshi and Polymarket, with moneyline, spread, total and team-total contracts. The board carried about $336K in combined volume as of November 3, most of it on Kalshi's Chicago moneyline.
How did the Bears line move after Monday night?
Chicago slid from 71c to 67c on Kalshi around kickoff of its Monday game at Seattle, then rebounded to 73c to 74c after the 34-17 win. That returned it to the 72c to 74c range it held from October 28 to November 1.