The Russia 2026 Duma Election seat-gain market resolved to United Russia on September 21, 2026. The governing party won 349 of the 450 State Duma seats in the September 18 to 20 vote, up 25 from its 2021 total of 324 and well clear of New People's gain of 6. Polymarket settled the United Russia contract Yes the day after voting closed.
Resolved September 21, 2026.
United Russia posted the largest seat gain in the Russia 2026 Duma Election, finishing with 349 of the 450 State Duma seats after voting ran from September 18 to 20, 2026. That is 25 more than the 324 seats it won in 2021; the next-best gain was New People's 6. Polymarket settled the United Russia contract Yes on September 21. The governing party went in as the favorite, though not a lopsided one: its contract closed at 74% on September 16, the last full day in the price history before voting began, with New People the main alternative at 22%.
Central Election Commission chair Ella Pamfilova announced the final seat distribution on September 25, 2026. United Russia won 140 party-list seats and 209 single-member constituencies, the most seats any party has held in the history of the State Duma. Measured against each party's 2021 result, the net changes were:
| Party | 2021 seats | 2026 seats | Net change |
| United Russia | 324 | 349 | +25 |
| New People | 13 | 19 | +6 |
| LDPR | 21 | 23 | +2 |
| A Just Russia - For Truth | 27 | 17 | -10 |
| Communist Party (KPRF) | 57 | 37 | -20 |
Rodina won one constituency seat and four independents were elected. Civic Platform and Yabloko won none.
Polymarket's "Which party will gain most seats" event closed between 10:44 and 12:47 UTC on September 21. The United Russia contract resolved Yes; the KPRF, A Just Russia, LDPR, New People, Rodina, Civic Platform and Yabloko contracts all resolved No. The event traded about $52.1M, with $24.5M of that on the United Russia contract. Kalshi did not list a seat-gain market for this election.
The seat-gain question was settled mostly in the constituencies. Half of the chamber, 225 seats, is filled by single-member districts, and United Russia took 209 of them. The party-list half moved less: with 90% to 95% of ballots counted on September 21, United Russia had 57.86% of the list vote, the Communists 13.84%, LDPR 8.9%, New People 7.94% and A Just Russia 4.95%, according to Al Jazeera's report of the preliminary count.
The Communists, the second-largest party in the outgoing Duma, lost the most ground. Party leader Gennady Zyuganov alleged electoral irregularities after the vote.
Unlike the companion board on which party wins the most seats, the gain market was a real contest for most of the year. A party already holding 324 seats had less obvious room to grow than a small one, and traders treated New People as the live alternative.
| Date | United Russia | New People | LDPR |
| February 25 (first full day of history) | 74% | 16% | 5% |
| June 22 (90 days out) | 61% | 32% | 5% |
| July 11 | 54% | 41% | 4% |
| August 21 (30 days out) | 69% | 23% | 5% |
| September 13 (7 days out) | 80% | 16% | 3% |
| September 16 (last close before voting) | 74% | 22% | 3% |
United Russia's low was 54%, reached in early June and again around July 11, the day New People peaked at 41%. The swing back started in August: United Russia went from 66% on August 10, the day of the Yabloko ruling, to 74% on August 15. Polymarket's own history has the contract at about 81% entering September 20, the final day of voting.
The favorite won, and at every checkpoint above it was the favorite. The market's miss was on the margin. At the summer lows it priced roughly a two-in-five chance that New People would out-gain United Russia; the result was 25 seats to 6. The Communist contract never closed above 5%, and the party lost 20 seats.
The new Duma sits for a five-year term, so the next regular State Duma election is due in 2031. The companion 2026 Russia Parliamentary Election winner market also resolved to United Russia, on the simpler question of which party won the most seats. For Russian politics still trading, the Putin out as president by December 31, 2026 market remains open, and more boards are on the politics hub.
This market resolved to the political party that gained the greatest number of seats in the 2026 Russian State Duma election compared with its standing before the election. Voting ran from September 18 to 20, 2026. Each party contract paid $1 per share if that party posted the largest seat gain and $0 otherwise. A tie for the most seats gained would have gone to the party with more valid votes, then to the party whose listed abbreviation comes first alphabetically. If results were not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market would have resolved to Other. Resolution was based on a consensus of credible reporting, with the official results of the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation as the source if reporting was ambiguous. Polymarket settled the market on September 21, 2026: United Russia resolved Yes and every other listed party, including Yabloko, resolved No.
United Russia. It won 349 of the 450 State Duma seats, up 25 from the 324 it won in 2021, while New People gained 6 and LDPR gained 2.
Polymarket settled it on September 21, 2026, the day after voting closed, with United Russia resolving Yes and every other party No. The CEC announced the final seat distribution on September 25.
United Russia's gain contract closed at 74% on September 16, two days before voting began, with New People at 22%. A week out, on September 13, it was 80% to 16%.
The constituencies. United Russia won 209 of the 225 single-member seats, which added 25 seats to its total, while the Communists fell from 57 seats to 37.
The State Duma serves a five-year term, so the next regular election is due in 2031. The Putin out as president by December 31, 2026 market is still open on Prediction Genius.