Jonny Parsons vs Jose Henrique Souza Prediction Market Odds, November 7, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Main ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Parsons | — | O 2.5 43% | 32%33% | 32% Kalshi |
▶Souza | — | U 2.5 57% | 69%68% | 68% Polymarket |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Main ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Jonny Parsons | — | O 2.5 | 32% Kalshi | |
▶Jose Henrique Nascimento De Souza | — | U 2.5 | 68% Polymarket |
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Jose Henrique Souza is the Kalshi favorite at 70% against Jonny Parsons (30%) as of November 6, with Parsons down from 32% the night before. The bout is scheduled to open the prelims of UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs Walker (UFC Vegas 124) on Saturday, November 7 at Meta APEX in Las Vegas, with the prelim card starting at 5:00 PM ET. Souza (9-1) is on a four-fight win streak; Parsons has not fought since July 2023. This board is Kalshi only.
Jonny Parsons vs Jose Henrique Souza pits a 24-year-old Brazilian welterweight with a six-inch height edge against a 35-year-old knockout puncher returning from a layoff of more than three years. Ufc.com lists the bout last on the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs Walker, which makes it the first fight of the night, with the prelims scheduled for 5:00 PM ET on Saturday, November 7 at Meta APEX. Ufc.com and ESPN list Souza as José Souza; Kalshi and this board use Jose Henrique Souza.
Jonny Parsons vs Jose Henrique Souza Odds and Fight Context
Kalshi priced Souza at 70% and Parsons at 30% as of November 6. The live board above carries the current numbers. Parsons opened our captured window at 32% at 9:34 PM ET on November 5 and was down to 30% by 11:33 AM ET on November 6, while Souza ticked from 69% to 70%. It is a small move on a small board: about $3.4K has traded in total, the thinnest of the four Kalshi fight boards we cover from this card.
Souza is 9-1 per ufc.com and ESPN, with six wins by knockout. Ufc.com lists him on a four-fight win streak, and his most recent result is a split-decision win over Ding Meng on May 30, 2026. His only loss came on Dana White's Contender Series on August 30, 2022, when Yusaku Kinoshita stopped him by strikes early in the third round. Ufc.com also notes he was signed by the UFC in 2023 but failed an out-of-competition drug test and served a two-year suspension before debuting on April 4, 2026. He is 24, trains at Nova Uniao, and stands 6 feet 3 inches.
Parsons has seven knockout wins and a six-fight win streak per ufc.com. Ufc.com lists his record at 9-2 while ESPN lists 9-3, so the record depends on the source. Both list his most recent fight as a second-round knockout of Danny Roberts at 4:57 on July 22, 2023, his UFC debut. He earned the contract with a split-decision win over Solomon Renfro Jr. on the Contender Series in October 2021. He is 35, fights out of a Muay Thai base, and stands 5 feet 9 inches with a 69-inch reach.
The read: the 70% price leans on youth, size and activity. Souza has fought twice in 2026, and Parsons has not competed in more than 39 months. Parsons' case is power, seven knockouts, including the stoppage of Roberts, the last time anyone saw him. The split decision over Ding Meng is the reason Souza is not priced higher: his last win was close on the cards.
When the Jonny Parsons vs Jose Henrique Souza Market Resolves
The Kalshi market settles on the official result of the bout on November 7, 2026. Kalshi's contract text calls it the fight "originally scheduled for Nov 6, 2026", matching its ticker date, but ufc.com, ESPN and Wikipedia list the event for Saturday, November 7. A draw or no contest pays both sides at 50%. A bout that starts within 48 hours of its scheduled time settles on the official result; a cancellation or a longer delay resolves both contracts to a fair price set by Kalshi.
Key Jonny Parsons vs Jose Henrique Souza Catalysts
- Layoff: Parsons has not fought since July 22, 2023, a gap of more than three years.
- Size gap: Souza stands 6 feet 3 inches to Parsons' 5 feet 9 inches.
- Power: Parsons has seven knockout wins and Souza has six, so both have a finish in their hands.
- Close last outing: Souza's most recent win over Ding Meng was a split decision.
- Price drift: Parsons slipped from 32% to 30% on a board with about $3.4K traded.
Related Jonny Parsons vs Jose Henrique Souza Markets
The winner moves up a welterweight division whose title picture trades on the UFC Welterweight Champion 2026 market. The card's heavyweight headliner feeds the UFC Heavyweight Champion 2026 board, and the sport's rankings race trades on the UFC pound-for-pound year-end market. Every live fight and game board sits on the sports hub.
Resolution Criteria
The Kalshi market resolves to the fighter who wins the Jonny Parsons vs Jose Henrique Souza welterweight bout at UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs Walker on Saturday, November 7, 2026, at Meta APEX in Las Vegas, based on the official result. Kalshi's contract refers to the fight as originally scheduled for November 6, 2026. A draw or no contest pays both sides $0.50 per contract. Post-expiration changes such as overturned results do not affect settlement. If the bout begins within 48 hours of its scheduled start it settles on the official result; if it is cancelled or not started within 48 hours, both contracts resolve to a fair price.
Key Factors
- Parsons returns from a layoff dating to his July 22, 2023 knockout of Danny Roberts
- Souza six-inch height advantage at 6 feet 3 inches
- Souza four-fight win streak, most recently a split decision over Ding Meng
- Parsons seven career knockout wins against Souza's six
- Parsons drifted from 32% to 30% on a thin Kalshi board of about $3.4K
What are the Jonny Parsons vs Jose Henrique Souza odds?
As of November 6, 2026, Kalshi priced Jose Henrique Souza at 70% and Jonny Parsons at 30% to win. Parsons had slipped from 32% on the evening of November 5.
When is Parsons vs Souza?
The welterweight bout is listed last on the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs Walker on Saturday, November 7, 2026, at Meta APEX in Las Vegas, so it opens the event. The prelims start at 5:00 PM ET.
Where can I trade Jonny Parsons vs Jose Henrique Souza?
This board carries Kalshi only. About $3.4K had traded on it as of November 6.
What are the fighters' records?
Jose Henrique Souza is 9-1 with six knockouts per ufc.com and ESPN. Jonny Parsons is 9-2 per ufc.com and 9-3 per ESPN, with seven knockouts, and last fought on July 22, 2023.
How does the Parsons vs Souza market settle?
It settles on the official result of the fight. A draw or no contest pays both sides at 50%, and a cancellation or a delay of more than 48 hours resolves both contracts to a fair price.