The October 2026 unemployment rate market pays on one decimal place. Kalshi lists 23 exact buckets from 3.3% to 5.5% and Polymarket lists 9 legs covering 3.9% through 4.5% plus both tails, so two venues quote the identical question. September printed 4.2%. The board resolves November 6, 2026, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the October Employment Situation report. Current prices are on the live board above.
The October 2026 unemployment rate market is a distribution, not a yes-or-no. Kalshi breaks the print into 23 exact buckets running from 3.3% to 5.5% in tenths, Polymarket covers 3.9% through 4.5% as exact legs plus an at-or-above-4.6% tail and an at-or-below-3.8% tail, and whichever single bucket matches the published figure pays out. September came in at 4.2%, August and July at 4.1%, so the recent run gives the middle of the board an obvious center of gravity. The live board above carries the current prices on both venues.
Exact-value markets reward precision in a way threshold markets do not. On a board asking whether unemployment goes above 4.5%, a trader with a view on direction has something to trade. Here the question is narrower: which tenth. The 2026 series has printed 4.3%, 4.4%, 4.3%, 4.3%, 4.3%, 4.2%, 4.1%, 4.1% and 4.2% from January through September, which is a 0.3 point range across nine months. A labor market that moves that little concentrates an exact-value board into three or four adjacent buckets and leaves the rest as lottery tickets.
That concentration shows up in the books. The buckets between 4.0% and 4.6% carry two-sided quotes and real volume on Kalshi. Everything from 3.3% to 3.8% and from 4.7% to 5.5% sits with no bid at all, which means the number shown on those rows is a lone offer rather than a market. A reader scanning the full ladder should discount the outer buckets entirely. The tradeable question lives in the seven buckets around the recent run.
Kalshi also lists this same month as an above-threshold ladder in a separate series carrying roughly $123K in lifetime volume, which is a useful cross-check. Converting those thresholds into implied bucket probabilities lands within about five points of the exact buckets on this board, on every bucket in the live range. Two independent Kalshi series agreeing on the same month is a credibility signal worth more than either one alone.
This is a genuinely two-venue board, which is rarer on economics than it sounds. Kalshi and Polymarket are quoting the identical question here: the exact October U-3 figure, same reference month, same source. Seven buckets overlap directly, covering 3.9% through 4.5%, and four of them, 4.0% through 4.3%, carry real two-sided books on both venues and track within roughly three points of each other. The 4.4% bucket is where the two diverge, and Polymarket's leg there runs a wide enough book to explain most of the gap. Everywhere the overlap is tight, a price difference is a real cross-venue comparison rather than two differently worded contracts mistaken for one.
Liquidity is the trade-off. Lifetime volume across all 32 legs is about $22.3K, so this is a small board by economics standards. The Polymarket side carries a wider spread on its outer legs than Kalshi does on the equivalent bucket. For a reader comparing the two, the overlap buckets are where the comparison means something, and the tails on both venues are thin enough to ignore.
The board resolves November 6, 2026, the scheduled release date for the October Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Settlement reads the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for the October reference month as first published. The matching bucket pays and every other bucket goes to zero, so a figure of 4.2% settles the 4.2% contract YES and the other 22 Kalshi buckets NO. Later revisions to the October figure do not reopen the contract.
The annual version of this question trades on the US unemployment 2026 peak odds, which asks for the highest monthly figure of the year rather than one month's print and settles January 8, 2027. The labor data this board resolves against also drives the Fed Rate Decision Oct 2026 odds and the number of Fed rate cuts in 2026, and the US recession 2026 odds price the tail scenario these monthly prints would have to build toward. More labor and inflation boards sit on the economics hub.
Resolves to the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for the October 2026 reference month as first published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the October Employment Situation report, scheduled for release November 6, 2026. Exactly one bucket resolves YES, the one matching the published figure to one decimal place, and every other bucket on the board resolves NO. Polymarket's outer legs are stated as at-or-above-4.6% and at-or-below-3.8%, so a print outside the listed exact range settles on those tails rather than voiding. Subsequent revisions to the October figure do not change settlement, and a delay to the release schedule pushes settlement rather than voiding the contract.
The live board above carries current prices across 23 Kalshi exact buckets and 9 Polymarket legs. Pricing concentrates in the buckets around the recent run of 4.1% in July, 4.1% in August and 4.2% in September.
November 6, 2026, the scheduled release date for the October Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. One bucket pays and the other 22 Kalshi buckets settle NO.
Kalshi lists 23 exact buckets from 3.3% to 5.5% and Polymarket lists 9 legs covering 3.9% to 4.5% plus both tails. Seven buckets overlap, and the four between 4.0% and 4.3% carry two-sided books on both venues, which is where the cross-platform comparison is meaningful.
The buckets nearest the recent run carry the probability, with September at 4.2% and the two prior months at 4.1%. The live board above shows the current ranking on each venue.
Watch whether the print clears 4.4%, the 2026 high set in February. Anything above it sets a new year peak and reprices the annual US unemployment 2026 board, which does not settle until January 8, 2027.