US unemployment 2026 asks for the highest monthly unemployment rate the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes for a 2026 reference month. Through September that number is 4.4%, set in February, and every rung still trading asks for something above it. Kalshi lists 14 thresholds and Polymarket lists 5, across roughly $1.37M in lifetime volume. The live board above has current prices. The Kalshi contract settles January 8, 2027.
US unemployment 2026 is a market about a single statistic: the highest monthly U-3 unemployment rate the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports for a 2026 reference month. Through September that figure is 4.4%, set back in February. The rate has drifted lower since, printing 4.1% in July, 4.1% in August and 4.2% in September. Three reference months are left in the year, and the lowest rung still trading on this board needs a print above 4.5%. That is the whole question: do the last three reports of 2026 break the year's own ceiling, or does February stand as the high?
The 2026 path has been remarkably flat. January opened at 4.3%, February hit 4.4%, and March through May all held 4.3%. The second half softened rather than spiked: 4.2% in June, 4.1% in July, 4.1% in August, 4.2% in September. Nine months of data span 0.3 percentage points, which is a narrow band for a labor market that spent 2025 between 4.1% and 4.5%.
Put 2026 next to the two years before it and the flatness looks like a plateau rather than a turn. Unemployment peaked at 4.2% in 2024, at 4.5% in November 2025, and so far at 4.4% in 2026. The lowest live rung on this board therefore asks for more than a new 2026 high. It asks 2026 to clear 2025 as well, which no month this year has come within 0.1 points of doing since February.
That flatness is why the ladder looks the way it does. A threshold contract is only interesting where the outcome is genuinely open, and on this board the lowest live threshold sits above 4.5%. Clearing it requires a reading at least 0.1 points above anything 2026 has produced, in one of three remaining tries. The rungs above that stack upward from there, through 4.8%, 5.0%, 5.5%, 6.0%, 6.5%, 7.0%, and on into territory the US has not seen outside a recession or the 2020 shutdown.
The practical read is that this is a tail market wearing a ladder's clothing. The distribution is not spread across the rungs the way it is on a championship board. It is concentrated at the bottom, on the first two or three thresholds, and the rest of the ladder is priced as insurance. The live board above shows where each rung sits right now.
Both venues list the year's peak, and they list it differently. Kalshi runs 14 thresholds in an "above X%" format with irregular spacing, tight at the bottom and widening fast in the tail. Polymarket runs 5, phrased as "reach at least X%", at 5.0%, 5.5%, 6.0%, 7.0% and 10.0%. Four of those five line up with a Kalshi rung, which makes this one of the few economics boards where a reader can compare two independent books on the same threshold rather than on a label that merely looks similar.
Depth is not evenly distributed either. Kalshi carries about $809K of the lifetime volume and Polymarket about $563K, but the concentration matters more than the split. Kalshi's above-5.0% contract alone accounts for roughly $344K and carries more than 124,000 contracts of open interest, far more than any other rung on the board. On Polymarket the deepest leg is "at least 5.5%" at roughly $216K. Both venues, in other words, have put most of their money on the 5% question rather than on the near-term thresholds where the actual uncertainty lives.
One caveat on the deep end. The rungs past 6.5% carry a few thousand dollars of volume each and books wide enough that the quote tells you very little. Treat the top of this ladder as decoration. The signal is in the first few rungs and in the 5.0% contract both venues have chosen to trade.
The Kalshi contract settles January 8, 2027, the scheduled release date for the December Employment Situation report. That report carries the final 2026 reference month, so the year's peak is not knowable until it lands. Two reports come first: the October figure on November 6, 2026, and the November figure in December. Polymarket's legs settle February 1, 2027, 24 days after Kalshi's, which is worth knowing before treating a price gap between the two as a disagreement rather than a difference in settlement window. Source of truth on both sides is the seasonally adjusted U-3 rate published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The monthly component of this question trades separately. Kalshi and Polymarket both list the exact October print bucket by bucket on a board that resolves three weeks from now rather than next January, and its above-4.5% rung carries roughly half of this board's entire remaining tail probability. The Fed Rate Decision Oct 2026 odds reprice on the same release. For the macro picture around it, the US recession 2026 odds and the 2026 tech layoffs market trade the same labor-market thesis from different angles, and the next Fed rate hike odds sit on the other side of the Fed's reaction function. Full coverage lives on the economics hub.
Resolves to the highest seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for a 2026 reference month. Each threshold is an independent contract: a rung resolves YES if any 2026 monthly figure exceeds its stated level and NO otherwise. The Kalshi contracts settle January 8, 2027, the scheduled release date of the December Employment Situation report, which carries the final 2026 reference month. Polymarket's corresponding legs settle February 1, 2027, a 24-day gap worth accounting for before reading a cross-venue price difference as disagreement. The source of truth is the BLS published figure, not a revision timetable, so a later restatement of an earlier month counts if it lands before settlement.
The live board above carries the current prices across 14 Kalshi thresholds and 5 Polymarket legs, with roughly $1.37M in lifetime volume. The pricing is concentrated at the bottom of the ladder, because the lowest live rung already asks for a print above 4.5% when the 2026 high to date is 4.4%.
The Kalshi contracts settle January 8, 2027, the scheduled release of the December Employment Situation report. Polymarket's legs settle February 1, 2027.
Kalshi lists 14 above-threshold contracts and Polymarket lists 5 reach-at-least legs. Four Polymarket levels (5.0%, 5.5%, 7.0% and 10.0%) match a Kalshi rung directly, so the two books are comparable on those thresholds.
The 2026 peak through September is 4.4%, set in February, against 4.5% in November 2025 and 4.2% in 2024. The rate printed 4.1% in July, 4.1% in August and 4.2% in September, so the last three months have run well below the year's high.
The October Employment Situation on November 6, 2026 is the next catalyst and the first of only three remaining prints. Watch the Kalshi above-5.0% contract, which carries more than 124,000 contracts of open interest and is where both venues have concentrated their money.