| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Mercury | +12.5 49% | O 163.5 67% | 14%14% | 14% Kalshi |
â–¶Lynx | -12.5 51% | U 163.5 33% | 87%87% | 87% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Phoenix Mercury | +12.5 | O 163.5 | 14% Kalshi | |
â–¶Minnesota Lynx | -12.5 | U 163.5 | 87% Kalshi |
Minnesota is the 86c moneyline favorite (86c Kalshi, 86c Polymarket) over Phoenix at Target Center, an implied 86% shot. The Lynx (17-6, 7-4 at home) carry a nine-win edge over the Mercury (8-16, 5-8 on the road), and the two books agree to the cent on the winner, so the value question sits on the roughly 12.5-point spread and the 169.5-point total. Roughly $34K in cross-platform volume backs the board; see the live board above for current prices.
Minnesota is the 86c moneyline favorite (86c Kalshi, 86c Polymarket) over Phoenix at Target Center, an implied 86% shot on a night the WNBA carries a thin national sports slate. The Lynx (17-6, 7-4 at home) bring a nine-win edge over the Mercury (8-16, 5-8 on the road), and the two books agree to the cent on the winner, so the tradeable question lives on the roughly 12.5-point spread and the 169.5-point total. Roughly $34K in cross-platform volume sits behind the board.
Minnesota trades at 86c on both Kalshi and Polymarket, a rare zero-cent split that tells you the books have no disagreement on who wins. Phoenix is the 14.5c road underdog (15c Kalshi, 14c Polymarket), an implied 14% chance of the upset. Minnesota opened at 88c on Kalshi when the market listed and has settled to 86c, a two-cent drift toward Phoenix that leaves the moneyline essentially where it started. With the winner priced identically across platforms, there is no cross-platform edge on the outright, which is why the sharper read is on the derivative markets below. The Minnesota Lynx season-wins market reflects the same first-tier standing that props the Lynx to 86c here.
The spread is the live question. Kalshi prices "Minnesota wins by over 9.5 points" at 62c and "wins by over 12.5 points" at 52c, a near coin flip that pins the consensus margin around 12 to 13 points. Polymarket agrees, with Minnesota Lynx -11.5 at 55c and -13.5 at 46c, an implied spread of roughly 12.5. That is a wide number for a home favorite, and it reflects the Mercury (8-16) offense being asked to hang with a Lynx team that has won 17 of 23. The total sits at a coin flip: both Kalshi and Polymarket price Over 169.5 points at 49c, with Kalshi's Over 166.5 at 58c and Over 172.5 at 43c bracketing the range. The Phoenix Mercury season-wins market tracks the season-long version of the gap the spread is pricing tonight.
Kahleah Copper is the Mercury's engine at 20.3 points per game, the individual reason Phoenix has any path to the 14.5c upset, and her Polymarket points prop sits at O/U 19.5 priced at 51c. Alyssa Thomas is the do-it-all facilitator for Phoenix at 14.2 points and 7.9 assists per game, with her points prop at O/U 13.5 (51c) and rebounds at O/U 7.5 (51c); her ability to keep the Mercury organized is the swing factor in whether Phoenix stays inside the 12.5-point number. Minnesota counters with balance: Olivia Miles leads the Lynx at 18.7 points and 5.6 assists per game (assists prop O/U 5.5 at 52c on Polymarket) and Natasha Howard anchors the glass at 8.1 rebounds per game. The board's props hover near even money on both sides, which matches a game the market sees as a comfortable Minnesota win rather than a blowout lock.
The market resolves on the final score of the game at Target Center in Minneapolis on July 13, 2026. The moneyline pays $1 per share on the team that wins, the spread settles on Minnesota's final margin against the roughly 12.5-point line, and the total settles on the combined score against the 169.5-point line. Kalshi and Polymarket settle their contracts once the game goes final on the scheduled date; a postponement past the date or a cancellation voids the contracts under each platform's rules.
Kahleah Copper's scoring load (20.3 PPG) as the Mercury's primary offense in a 14.5c road underdog spot. Olivia Miles running the Lynx (18.7 PPG, 5.6 APG) with Natasha Howard on the glass (8.1 RPG). The identical 86c moneyline on Kalshi and Polymarket, which removes any cross-platform edge on the winner. The roughly 12.5-point spread (Kalshi "over 12.5" at 52c, Polymarket Lynx -11.5 at 55c) as the tradeable question. The 169.5-point total priced at a coin flip (49c Over on both books). Alyssa Thomas's playmaking (7.9 APG) as the swing on whether Phoenix covers.
Phoenix and Minnesota both feed the WNBA Finals championship market, where the Lynx's 17-6 record carries far more weight than the Mercury's 8-16 start. Track both clubs on the WNBA league hub, follow the individual race on the best WNBA player market, and compare the season-long outlooks on the Minnesota Lynx and Phoenix Mercury season-wins boards. See the live board above for current Kalshi and Polymarket prices.
Resolves to the team that wins the game at Target Center in Minneapolis on July 13, 2026. The moneyline pays $1 per share on the winning team; the spread settles on Minnesota's final margin against the roughly 12.5-point line, and the total settles on the combined score against the 169.5-point line. Kalshi and Polymarket settle their contracts once the game goes final on the scheduled date. If the game is postponed past its scheduled date or canceled, the contracts void under each platform's rules.
As of July 13, 2026, Minnesota is the 86c favorite (86c Kalshi, 86c Polymarket), an implied 86% chance of beating Phoenix, which trades at 14.5c (15c Kalshi, 14c Polymarket).
The game trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with roughly $34K in combined volume across the moneyline, spread, and total markets.
The Minnesota Lynx are the 86% implied favorite at 86c. Minnesota is 17-6 on the season against Phoenix at 8-16, a nine-win gap that both books price identically.
It resolves on the final score of the game at Target Center in Minneapolis on July 13, 2026, settling on Kalshi and Polymarket once the game goes final.
The market prices Minnesota to win by roughly 12.5 points (Kalshi over 12.5 at 52c, Polymarket Lynx -11.5 at 55c) and the combined total at 169.5 points, priced at a coin-flip 49c Over on both books.