Live US election odds across House, Senate, gubernatorial, presidential, and mayoral races tracked across prediction markets.
US elections is the deepest subcategory in politics, aggregating roughly 1,405 active contracts as of June 5, 2026 across more than a dozen office-level specifics. The board spans House and Senate control futures, individual seat and district races, gubernatorial and mayoral contests, presidential cycle markets, and statewide ballot measures. Each contract resolves against certified results once an election is called by official canvass, which makes the questions concrete and auditable rather than open-ended. The November 3, 2026 midterm is the central catalyst, with House control carrying the single largest block of contracts on the board. The live top-markets and movers widgets above show where each race prices today across platforms.
The US elections board is organized by office, and the volume concentration is heavily structural. House races dominate the contract count, anchored by control-of-the-House futures for the 2026 cycle alongside hundreds of individual district and seat markets. Senate markets form the second tier, splitting between 2026 control and seat contracts and a smaller forward block of 2028 class futures. Gubernatorial races carry meaningful depth as well, with 2026 contests across multiple states plus a handful of 2028 markets already open. Presidential cycle markets and mayoral races round out the set, the latter driven by high-profile city contests. Each market type is a binary contract that resolves to the certified winner or party outcome, so the implied probability maps directly to a candidate's or party's chance. The live board above shows current pricing on each; the durable picture is that control-of-Congress futures structurally carry the heaviest interest in any midterm year.
The 2026 cycle is the active driver. Primary season runs through the spring and summer, with state filing deadlines and primary dates feeding nominee resolution into the relevant contracts as fields narrow. Party conventions and the post-Labor Day general election sprint set up the largest repricing window. The hard resolution anchor is the November 3, 2026 general election, when House control, Senate control, gubernatorial, and most seat-level contracts settle against certified results. Looking further out, presidential and Senate 2028 markets are already live and trade thinly against a much longer horizon. Off-cycle special elections and recall contests resolve on their own scheduled dates throughout the year. These scheduled dates are what make the subcategory naturally evergreen: the calendar is fixed, and each contract carries a known settlement event.
Election market volume tracks the news cycle and the scheduled-event calendar more than steady-state polling. Primary results, candidate entries and exits, redistricting rulings, and major fundraising disclosures all reprice the relevant House, Senate, and gubernatorial contracts. National generic-ballot polling and approval data move the control-of-Congress futures, while local dynamics drive individual seat and mayoral markets. Volume spikes around debates, filing deadlines, and the closing weeks before November 3, 2026. Across the roughly 1,405 contracts in scope, the House aggregate sees the most consistent flow, with gubernatorial and Senate markets activating as their fields settle. The live board above shows where prices sit today; the durable read is that catalyst density, not calendar emptiness, is what concentrates trading in this subcategory.
Coverage spans roughly 1,405 active contracts across more than a dozen office-level specifics: House and Senate control and seat races, gubernatorial contests, presidential cycle markets, mayoral races, and statewide ballot measures, for both the 2026 and 2028 cycles.
House races carry the largest block of contracts, led by control-of-the-House futures for 2026, with Senate control and gubernatorial races forming the next tiers. Control-of-Congress futures structurally draw the heaviest interest. The live board above shows current pricing.
Each contract is binary and resolves against certified official results once the election is called by the relevant canvassing authority. Control futures settle on which party holds the chamber; seat and gubernatorial markets settle on the certified winner of that race.
As of June 5, 2026, control of the US House for the 2026 cycle is the highest-volume contract on the board, anchoring the House aggregate. Check the live top-markets widget above for the current implied probability and cross-platform pricing.
The same race can diverge across platforms due to different resolution wording, book depth, and spread tightness, with control-of-Congress futures typically the deepest and tightest. Compare the live board above for current spread sizes on each contract.