Kalshi's federal crime charges in 2026 board prices the probability that each of 40 named public figures faces a formal federal charge before January 1, 2027. Every name is an independent yes-or-no contract, so several can resolve Yes in the same year and the prices sum well past 100c by design. The field runs from a retired federal health official and a former CIA director to a Federal Reserve governor and a sitting foreign head of state, across $1.36M in cumulative volume. The live board above carries the current price on every name.
Federal crime charges in 2026 is a 40-name Kalshi board, one independent yes-or-no contract per public figure, asking whether each person is formally charged with a federal crime before January 1, 2027. Because the contracts are non-exclusive, several names can resolve Yes in the same year, which is why the 40 prices add up to well past 100c rather than to 100c. That is the board working as designed, not a pricing error. The board has traded $1.36M in cumulative volume, and its leadership changed hands over the summer: the contract on Anthony Fauci, a name that was priced in the single digits earlier in the year, now sits at the top. One point of order before the names: a price here estimates the probability of a formal charge, not guilt. A charge is an accusation, and the figures discussed below deny wrongdoing.
Anthony Fauci, who ran the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases until 2022, took the top spot on the board in August 2026 and now carries its single largest pool of volume at roughly $265K. The move traces to one event. Fauci invoked his Fifth Amendment rights 111 times at a Senate hearing, and the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, chaired by Rand Paul, approved a criminal contempt referral sending the matter to the Justice Department. Jeanine Pirro, the U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia, decides whether to seek an indictment, and a contempt conviction carries a fine and up to one year in prison per count.
Two structural facts explain why this contract reprices so much faster than the sprawling probes elsewhere on the board. First, a contempt-of-Congress charge is procedurally narrow: it turns on a single hearing rather than on years of documents and grand jury testimony. Second, the pardon Joe Biden issued on his last day in office in January 2025 covers Fauci's conduct from January 1, 2014 through January 19, 2025, which places the 2026 testimony outside its shield. The counterweight, as the Washington Post laid out on August 7, 2026, is that a Fifth Amendment invocation is a constitutional right, and legal analysts have described the resulting motion to dismiss as close to unbeatable. That tension is what a near coin-flip price looks like.
John Brennan, CIA director from 2013 to 2017, held the top price on this board in July and has since given up roughly 20c of it. Nothing broke in his favor so much as nothing happened at all. Prosecutors advised Brennan he is the target of a grand jury investigation into the 2017 intelligence community assessment on Russian election interference, following a referral from House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan alleging false statements to the panel in 2023. A Washington grand jury subpoenaed former intelligence and FBI officials in April 2026, and CNN reported in May 2026 that a career national security prosecutor who doubted the case had left it. CNN also reported that career prosecutors in southern Florida view the case as relatively weak. Brennan denies wrongdoing and has sued the department over the dual probes. His lawyers have braced for an indictment for months that has not arrived, and the market has repriced that waiting.
Letitia James, the New York attorney general, has a hard date instead of a drift. A federal grand jury in the Eastern District of Virginia indicted her in October 2025 on bank fraud and false statement counts tied to a Norfolk, Virginia property, and Judge Cameron Currie dismissed the indictment without prejudice on November 24, 2025, ruling that interim U.S. attorney Lindsey Halligan had not been lawfully appointed. Two grand juries declined to re-indict in December 2025. The Fourth Circuit hears oral argument in Richmond on September 15, 2026, on the consolidated James and James Comey appeals over whether Halligan had authority to bring the charges. Her contract is a bet on whether that ruling, or a fresh grand jury, produces a new charge inside the window. James denies the allegations.
The Minnesota fraud fallout now supplies more of this board's mass than any other single storyline. Federal prosecutors in Minnesota have charged dozens of people with stealing more than $240M from the federal child nutrition program through the nonprofit Feeding Our Future, and prosecutors have estimated that as much as $9B may have been taken from fourteen state-administered Medicaid programs.
Representative Ilhan Omar is the highest-priced name in that tier and the fifth-priced name overall, with about $115K in cumulative volume. The Justice Department opened an examination in May 2026 covering long-denied immigration-fraud allegations plus her family finances, ICE has refused to release records on that probe citing ongoing enforcement proceedings, and House Oversight Chairman James Comer has opened an inquiry into a nearly $30M jump in investments shown on her financial disclosure. Omar denies the allegations and has said she is not under investigation.
Tim Walz is the board's most instructive contract. He carries roughly $258K in cumulative volume, the second-largest pool on the whole board, while sitting well down the price ranking in the low teens. Traders are paying attention without paying up. Walz dropped his gubernatorial reelection bid amid the scandal, testified before House Oversight alongside Attorney General Keith Ellison, and Vice President JD Vance referred both men to the Justice Department for a criminal fraud investigation after the committee's report. The department served grand jury subpoenas on Minnesota officials in January over whether public statements obstructed federal law enforcement.
Below that tier the field runs wide and international. Jack Smith, the former special counsel, sits in the second group after telling CNBC in July 2026 that he considers his own indictment a live possibility. Gustavo Petro, the sitting president of Colombia, carries a contract because the DEA named him a priority target in March 2026 while federal prosecutors in New York probe alleged ties to drug traffickers, including the Sinaloa cartel; the Treasury sanctioned him in late 2025 and he denies the allegations. Peter Strzok, Lisa Cook, James Clapper, Fani Willis, Jennifer Siebel Newsom, Gavin Newsom, Hillary Clinton, Jerome Powell, Hunter Biden, and Barack Obama all carry contracts. Obama is the only name on the board with a paired Polymarket contract alongside the Kalshi leg, which is why this market reports two platforms.
Every contract on the federal crime charges 2026 board settles on January 1, 2027. A name resolves Yes if that person has been formally charged with a federal crime after the market's issuance and before that date, per Kalshi's rules for the series. The charge must be federal; state or local charges do not qualify. Contracts settle independently, a Yes pays $1 per share, and a name with no qualifying charge in the window resolves No. Under the rule text the trigger is the filing of a formal charge inside the window, which is why the James contract stayed live after her 2025 indictment was dismissed: that charge predates this market's window, and settlement turns on whether a new one lands.
Five catalysts carry most of the repricing risk on the federal charge 2026 board:
The federal crime charges 2026 board sits inside a wider cluster of legal-and-political markets. The politics prediction markets hub carries the full category. The closest structural cousin is the Supreme Court justice retirement odds, another non-exclusive multi-name board where each contract settles on its own. Two names here, Gavin Newsom and Tim Walz, also trade on the 2028 Democratic Nominee odds, where a formal charge would be a structural repricing event, and the 2028 Republican Nominee odds price the other side of the same cycle. For federal legal exposure at the top of the executive branch, the Trump impeachment 2029 odds run on the same news flow.
Each contract resolves Yes if the named person has been formally charged with a federal crime after the market's issuance and before January 1, 2027, per Kalshi's rules for the KXFEDERALCHARGE series. The charge must be federal; state or local charges do not qualify. The 40 contracts settle independently, so any number of names can resolve Yes and the board's prices are not expected to sum to 100c. A Yes contract pays $1 per share; a name with no qualifying federal charge in the window resolves No at settlement on January 1, 2027.
As of August 17, 2026, Kalshi prices Anthony Fauci at 52c, John Brennan at 33c, Letitia James at 27c, Jack Smith at 24c, and Ilhan Omar at 22c. Prices move with case news, and the live board carries the current numbers.
Every contract settles on January 1, 2027. A name resolves Yes only if that person has been formally charged with a federal crime after issuance and before that date; state charges do not qualify.
The 40 contracts are non-exclusive, so any number of names can resolve Yes in the same year. The prices currently sum past 500c, which is correct for this board shape rather than a pricing error.
No. A price estimates the probability of a formal federal charge before January 1, 2027, not guilt. A charge is an accusation, and the named figures, including Anthony Fauci and John Brennan, deny wrongdoing.
The Justice Department decision on the Fauci contempt referral, the Fourth Circuit oral argument in the Letitia James appeal on September 15, 2026, and any DOJ move on the Minnesota referrals. Each catalyst can reprice its name well before the January 1, 2027 cutoff.