Thunder vs Grizzlies Prediction Market Odds, November 6, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Main ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Thunder | -3.5 53%54% | O 224.5 49%48% | 60%61% | 60% Kalshi |
▶Grizzlies | +3.5 47%46% | U 224.5 51%52% | 37%36% | 36% Polymarket |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Main ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Oklahoma City Thunder | -3.5 | O 224.5 | 60% Kalshi | |
▶Memphis Grizzlies | +3.5 | U 224.5 | 36% Polymarket |
Oklahoma City is the road favorite in Thunder vs Grizzlies: as of November 6 the Thunder trade at 62c on Kalshi and about 60.5c on Polymarket, with -4.5 as the coin-flip spread, despite Chet Holmgren being listed out. Both teams are 6-2, but Memphis has lost two straight at home after a 6-0 start. Tip-off is 8:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026, at FedExForum.
Thunder vs Grizzlies is a meeting of two 6-2 teams at FedExForum, and the prediction market makes Oklahoma City a road favorite of about 4.5 points even with Chet Holmgren out. Memphis is 4-0 on the road but only 2-2 at home after two straight home losses. The board carries about $104K in cumulative volume as of November 6, and Polymarket's own moneyline has traded about $175K on top of that.
Thunder vs Grizzlies Odds and Market Context
As of the afternoon of November 6 the moneyline reads Oklahoma City 62c on Kalshi and about 60.5c on Polymarket, with Memphis at 39c on Kalshi and 39.5c on Polymarket. Our board does not carry the Polymarket moneyline, so that quote comes from Polymarket's own market, which lists tip-off at 8:00 PM ET. The 1.5c gap is too small to call an edge, though Polymarket is the slightly cheaper place to back the Thunder.
Thunder -4.5 is the coin-flip spread rung at 49c on Kalshi and 50c on Polymarket, matching the DraftKings line of Oklahoma City -4.5 on ESPN. The 224.5 over trades at 49c on both venues and the 222.5 over at 54c on Kalshi, which puts the market's total a touch above DraftKings' 223.5. ESPN's matchup predictor gives Oklahoma City a 67% win probability, about 5 points above the market's 62c.
The bigger move came on Wednesday. Kalshi's daily history shows the Thunder closing at 52c on November 4 and 63c on November 5, after Oklahoma City beat Cleveland and Memphis lost at home to Indiana; the November 4 session was thin, under $600 traded. In the intraday captures we hold, which run from about 7:00 PM ET Thursday to 2:00 PM ET Friday, Kalshi dipped Oklahoma City from 64c to 59c overnight and then rebuilt it to 62c. The total has drifted lower: the 224.5 over fell from 55c to 49c on Kalshi and from 51c to 48c on Polymarket.
Thunder vs Grizzlies Form and Injuries
Oklahoma City is 6-2 (4-0 at home, 2-2 on the road) per ESPN and has won two straight, both over Cleveland: 117-112 on the road Monday and 124-116 at home Wednesday. The two losses both came on the road, 120-96 at Dallas and 119-98 at Houston. Memphis is 6-2 (2-2 at home, 4-0 on the road). The Grizzlies opened 6-0, then lost 135-134 in overtime to New Orleans on Monday and 107-103 to Indiana on Wednesday, both at FedExForum. Both teams had Thursday off, and this is the first of four regular-season meetings, per ESPN.
The Thunder injury list is long. ESPN lists Chet Holmgren (knee) out with a projected return in early January, plus Cason Wallace (shoulder), Jaylin Williams (back), Nikola Topic (back) and Thomas Sorber (knee), as of November 6. Memphis lists Isaiah Stewart (knee) and Scotty Pippen Jr. (back) out. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads Oklahoma City at 30.1 points and 4.5 assists per game, and Isaiah Hartenstein at 10.1 rebounds. Ty Jerome leads Memphis at 27.4 points, Cam Spencer at 5.8 assists and Cameron Boozer at 9.8 rebounds.
The scoring props carry the matchup read. Gilgeous-Alexander's 29.5-point over trades at 62c on Kalshi and 53c on Polymarket, a 9c split that makes Polymarket the cheaper place to back him near his season average. Jerome's 24.5-point over is 33c on both venues, well below his 27.4 average, so the market expects his early pace to cool against Oklahoma City.
When the Thunder vs Grizzlies Market Resolves
The moneyline settles on the official winner of the Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies game scheduled for 8:00 PM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, at FedExForum, with overtime included. Spread and total contracts settle on the final score once the game goes final.
Key Thunder vs Grizzlies Catalysts
- Holmgren out: ESPN lists Chet Holmgren out with a knee injury as of November 6, with an early-January projected return.
- Memphis home slide: the Grizzlies are 4-0 on the road but have lost two straight at FedExForum.
- Wednesday repricing: Kalshi moved the Thunder from a 52c close on November 4 to a 63c close on November 5.
- Falling total: the 224.5 over slid from 55c to 49c on Kalshi in the captures we hold.
- Gilgeous-Alexander split: his 29.5-point over is 62c on Kalshi and 53c on Polymarket.
Related Thunder vs Grizzlies Markets
Results like this feed both clubs' season-long markets. Follow the Thunder playoff odds, the Grizzlies playoff odds, the Western Conference champion market and the NBA MVP market. Oklahoma City's previous board was Cavaliers vs Thunder, and Memphis's was Pacers vs Grizzlies. The Oklahoma City Thunder hub, the Memphis Grizzlies hub and the NBA hub collect every live market for the teams and the rest of Friday's slate.
Resolution Criteria
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies game scheduled for 8:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026, at FedExForum in Memphis, including overtime, and pays $1 per winning share on Kalshi and Polymarket. Spread contracts settle on the final margin and total contracts on the combined final score. Contracts settle on the official final result once the game goes final; if the game is postponed or canceled, each venue settles under its own posted contract rules.
Key Factors
- Chet Holmgren listed out with a knee injury, per ESPN as of November 6
- Memphis is 4-0 on the road but has lost two straight at FedExForum
- Kalshi moved the Thunder from a 52c close on November 4 to 63c on November 5
- The 224.5 total over slid from 55c to 49c on Kalshi between Thursday night and Friday afternoon
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's 29.5-point over is 62c on Kalshi and 53c on Polymarket
What are the Thunder vs Grizzlies odds?
As of November 6, 2026, Oklahoma City is 62c on Kalshi and about 60.5c on Polymarket, roughly a 61% implied chance of a Thunder win. Memphis is 39c on Kalshi and 39.5c on Polymarket.
What time does Thunder vs Grizzlies tip off?
Tip-off is 8:00 PM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026, at FedExForum in Memphis, per the ESPN scoreboard and Polymarket's game listing.
What are the Thunder vs Grizzlies spread and total?
As of November 6 the Thunder -4.5 contract is the coin-flip line at 49c on Kalshi and 50c on Polymarket, and the 224.5 over is 49c on both. DraftKings lists Oklahoma City -4.5 with a 223.5 total, per ESPN.
Is Chet Holmgren playing in Thunder vs Grizzlies?
ESPN lists Chet Holmgren out with a knee injury as of November 6, 2026, with a projected return in early January. Cason Wallace, Jaylin Williams, Nikola Topic and Thomas Sorber are also listed out for Oklahoma City.
What should I watch before Thunder vs Grizzlies settles?
Watch whether Memphis can stop a two-game home skid; the Grizzlies are 4-0 on the road and 2-2 at FedExForum. The market settles when the game goes final on November 6, 2026.