Lions vs Dolphins Prediction Market Odds, November 8, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Main ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Lions | -7.5 46%47% | O 42.5 74%73% | 74%73% | 74% Kalshi |
â–¶Dolphins | +7.5 54%53% | U 42.5 26%27% | 22%21% | 22% Kalshi |
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Detroit is a road favorite near 75% on both Kalshi and Polymarket as of November 3, but that price has come down from 82% on October 29 even though the Lions won their last game. The slide runs alongside a neck injury to linebacker Jack Campbell, Detroit's leading tackler, who is listed doubtful. Miami is 1-6 and 0-3 at home. The board carries roughly $73K in cumulative volume and the live board above has current prices. Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 8, 2026 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens.
Detroit beat Minnesota 19-15 in Week 8 and still lost ground in this market. The Lions peaked at 82% on October 29 and have given back seven points since, a move that runs alongside the neck injury to linebacker Jack Campbell. Lions vs Dolphins odds still make Detroit a clear favorite over a 1-6 Miami team, but the direction of travel is toward the Dolphins.
Lions vs Dolphins Odds: What the Board Says
As of 10:30 AM ET on November 3, Detroit trades at 75% on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Miami sits at 25% on Kalshi and 26% on Polymarket. The one-point gap on the underdog is the only disagreement between venues on roughly $73K of cumulative volume.
The daily history frames the move. When the board's daily record begins on October 19, Detroit was 72%. It held 75% through October 26, climbed to 77% on October 27 and 82% on October 29, and stayed at 81% through October 31. It closed November 1 at 78% and November 2 at 75%. Inside the latest capture window, from late morning November 2 to the morning of November 3, Detroit held 75% across 49 Kalshi captures while Polymarket ranged between 74% and 76%, so the drop happened before that window and has not continued.
ESPN's matchup predictor gives Detroit a 77.7% chance, about 2.7 points above the exchanges. The market is the more cautious of the two on the Lions.
Lions vs Dolphins Spread and Total
The spread centers on seven. Detroit -6.5 trades at 54% on both venues and Detroit -7.5 at 46% on Kalshi and 47% on Polymarket, so the fair line sits right on the touchdown, matching the Detroit -7 listed on ESPN's scoreboard. The two largest steps on the ladder sit at the key numbers, 71.5% to 62.5% across three and 54% to 46.5% across seven, which makes a Lions win by exactly seven the pivotal outcome for holders of the primary line.
The total sits near 50 points. Over 48.5 trades at 56%, over 50.5 at 48% and over 46.5 at 62.5%. Kalshi's team totals split that roughly 29.5 for Detroit (over 29.5 at 51%) and 21.5 for Miami (over 21.5 at 50%). Detroit games have averaged 54.7 combined points, with the Lions scoring 29.0 and allowing 25.7 per game. Miami games have averaged 42.6, because the Dolphins score only 16.7 per game.
Polymarket prices Detroit to win the first half at 68% and the first quarter at 64%.
Lions vs Dolphins: Rosters and Injuries
Campbell is the central injury on this board. He leads Detroit with 57 tackles and is listed doubtful with a neck injury on ESPN's report dated November 2, and ESPN reported on November 2 that he remained hospitalized with early signs positive. Linebacker Jimmy Rolder is also out with a hamstring injury, which leaves the second level of the Detroit defense short two players. Cornerback D.J. Reed (hip), running back Jacob Saylors (neck) and center Cade Mays (ankle) are questionable.
The Detroit offense has been the most reliable unit in this matchup. Jared Goff has 1,964 passing yards with 15 touchdowns and one interception, Jahmyr Gibbs has 773 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, and Amon-Ra St. Brown has 53 catches for 571 yards and five touchdowns. Detroit is 4-0 at Ford Field and 1-2 on the road, with a 45-21 win at Arizona and losses at Buffalo and Carolina.
Miami's offense runs through Malik Willis, who has 1,268 passing yards with six touchdowns and five interceptions. Ollie Gordon II leads the team with 408 rushing yards after De'Von Achane went to injured reserve with a torn ACL. Malik Washington leads the receivers with 31 catches for 329 yards, and Chop Robinson has four sacks. Tackle Kadyn Proctor is questionable with a concussion and defensive end Malik Herring is questionable with an undisclosed injury. Miami's only win came 28-25 at the Jets, and the Dolphins lost 24-19 to New England in Week 8.
When the Lions vs Dolphins Market Resolves
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 8, 2026 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, per ESPN's scoreboard and the Lions' published schedule. The moneyline settles on the winner of the game including overtime, and spread and total contracts settle on the official final score. Both venues settle once the NFL declares the game final.
Key Lions vs Dolphins Catalysts
- Campbell's status: Detroit's leading tackler is listed doubtful with a neck injury, and the Lions have drifted from 82% to 75% since October 29.
- Road split: Detroit is 4-0 at home but 1-2 on the road this season.
- The key number: Detroit -6.5 trades at 54% and -7.5 near 46.5%, so the line sits on seven.
- Miami's offense: the Dolphins average 16.7 points per game without De'Von Achane.
- Model gap: ESPN projects Detroit at 77.7%, a little above the exchanges.
Related Lions vs Dolphins Markets
A Detroit win feeds the Lions playoff market, the Lions win total and the NFC North race, where Detroit sits third at 5-2. For Miami, the game moves the Dolphins win total, the Dolphins playoff market and the AFC East. The full Week 9 slate is on the football hub.
Resolution Criteria
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game at Hard Rock Stadium on November 8, 2026, paying $1 per share on the winner and $0 on the loser, with overtime included in the result. Spread contracts settle against the final margin, so Detroit -6.5 requires a Lions win by at least seven points, and total contracts settle against combined points scored by both teams including overtime. Team total contracts settle against the official final box score. Kalshi lists the game under the KXNFLGAME-26NOV08DETMIA series and Polymarket lists the matching two-way market, and both venues settle once the NFL declares the game final. A regular-season tie after overtime and any postponement are handled under each venue's published rules rather than voided automatically.
Key Factors
- Jack Campbell, Detroit's leading tackler with 57, is listed doubtful with a neck injury as of November 2
- Detroit has slipped from 82% on October 29 to 75%, despite beating Minnesota 19-15 in Week 8
- Detroit -6.5 trades at 54% and -7.5 near 46.5%, putting the fair spread on seven
- The Lions are 4-0 at home but 1-2 on the road
- Miami scores 16.7 points per game and lost De'Von Achane to a torn ACL
- ESPN's matchup predictor has Detroit at 77.7%, about 2.7 points above the exchanges
What are the current Lions vs Dolphins odds?
As of 10:30 AM ET on November 3, 2026, Detroit is the favorite at 75% on both Kalshi and Polymarket, and Miami trades at 25% on Kalshi and 26% on Polymarket. The live board above carries the current prices.
Where does the Lions vs Dolphins market trade?
Both Kalshi and Polymarket list the game. Kalshi carries it under the KXNFLGAME-26NOV08DETMIA series with spread, total and team total markets, and Polymarket lists the matching moneyline plus half and quarter markets. The board aggregates roughly $73K in cumulative volume.
Who is favored in Lions vs Dolphins and by how much?
Detroit is favored at a 75% implied probability, down from 82% on October 29. ESPN's matchup predictor has the Lions at 77.7%. Detroit is 5-2 and Miami is 1-6.
What is the spread and total for Lions vs Dolphins?
Detroit -6.5 trades at 54% and Detroit -7.5 near 46.5%, so the fair line sits at seven. The total sits near 50 points, with over 48.5 at 56% and over 50.5 at 48%.
When does the Lions vs Dolphins market resolve?
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 8, 2026 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. The market resolves once the NFL declares the game final, with overtime included in moneyline, spread and total settlement.