Aziz Akhannouch has led Morocco's government since October 2021, and his exit before the end of 2026 reads as close to structural. He confirmed in January 2026 that he will not run in the September 23, 2026 parliamentary election, and in February 2026 his party elected Mohamed Chaouki to replace him as leader. Morocco's constitution has King Mohammed VI name the next head of government from the winning party. This Polymarket contract, carrying roughly $167K in cumulative volume, resolves Yes if Akhannouch ceases to be prime minister at any point through December 31, 2026. The live board above tracks the current price.
Aziz Akhannouch is priced to leave the prime minister's office in Rabat, and the market is not subtle about it. The businessman who has run Morocco's government since October 2021 turned 65 on August 16, 2026, and he spent the first half of the year dismantling his own path to a second term. In January he confirmed he will not stand in the September 23, 2026 legislative election, and in February he handed his party to a successor. This Polymarket contract asks one question: does Akhannouch cease to be prime minister at any point before December 31, 2026?
The contract is a single-question, Yes/No market on Polymarket, and the bet is more mechanical than dramatic. Morocco holds its legislative election on September 23, 2026, filling all 395 seats in the House of Representatives, with the official campaign period running September 10 to 22. King Mohammed VI appoints the head of government from the party that wins the most seats. Akhannouch led the National Rally of Independents (RNI), the party that topped the 2021 vote and carried him into office, but that link is now cut: on January 11, 2026 he said he would not seek a third term as party leader or run for a parliamentary seat, and on February 7, 2026 an extraordinary RNI congress in El Jadida elected Mohamed Chaouki, the party's parliamentary group leader, with 1,910 of 1,933 ballots cast. A prime minister who leads no party and holds no seat in the incoming parliament is not in the pool the king chooses from.
The political backdrop hardened that expectation. Between September 27 and October 18, 2025, the decentralized Gen Z 212 movement drove weeks of youth-led protests across Moroccan cities, demanding overhauls to health and education and, explicitly, Akhannouch's resignation. He has drawn years of criticism over alleged conflicts of interest tied to Afriquia, one of Morocco's largest fuel-distribution networks, which he owns. The government answered with a 2026 budget that routed 140 billion dirhams, roughly 10% of GDP, to health and education, a 16% increase on the prior year, plus rules subsidizing up to 75% of campaign costs for candidates under 35. Street mobilization has cooled since the autumn wave, but the protests reset the ceiling on Akhannouch's political future rather than the floor.
The Yes side is therefore a bet on timing and process more than on any single resignation event. Once a new government is formed and sworn in after the September vote, Akhannouch stops being prime minister and the contract settles Yes. The No side is the narrow set of paths where he is still formally in the role at year-end: an election delay, or coalition talks that drag a caretaker government past December 31. For reference, after the September 8, 2021 election he was named within days and his cabinet was sworn in on October 7, 2021, a gap of under a month. Repeating that 2021 timeline puts a new government in place with more than two months of runway before this contract expires.
The contract resolves on December 31, 2026. It settles Yes if Aziz Akhannouch ceases to be prime minister of Morocco for any period between the market's creation and that date, Eastern Time. An announced resignation or removal resolves the market Yes immediately, regardless of when it takes legal effect, and a detention or effective removal from the role also qualifies. If he is still prime minister at year-end, the contract resolves No. The resolution source is official information from Akhannouch and the government of Morocco, supplemented where needed by a consensus of credible reporting.
Akhannouch's exit sits inside a broader board of leadership-turnover contracts. The Putin out by year-end 2026 odds run the identical cease-to-hold-power structure on the same December 31 clock, the Iran regime fall before 2027 odds stretch it a year further, and the Venezuela leadership 2026 market prices a multi-candidate succession question. For the full slate of election and government-change contracts, browse the politics prediction markets hub.
Resolves on December 31, 2026. The market settles Yes if Aziz Akhannouch ceases to be prime minister of Morocco for any period between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, Eastern Time. An announced resignation or removal resolves the market Yes immediately, regardless of when it takes legal effect, and a detention or effective removal from office also qualifies for Yes. If Akhannouch remains prime minister through year-end, the contract resolves No. The resolution source is official information from Akhannouch and the government of Morocco, with a consensus of credible reporting used where official confirmation is unavailable. The contract trades on Polymarket and pays $1 per share on the outcome that occurs.
As of August 17, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 92c and No at 8c, an implied 92% chance Aziz Akhannouch ceases to be prime minister of Morocco before December 31, 2026. That is up from 82c in mid-July, with the September 23 legislative election now the next scheduled catalyst. The board above shows the live price.
It resolves on December 31, 2026. The market settles Yes if Akhannouch ceases to be prime minister at any point before then, Eastern Time, and No if he is still in office at year-end.
The contract trades on Polymarket as a single Yes/No market with roughly $167K in cumulative volume. There is no matching Kalshi listing, so the price reflects Polymarket order flow only.
Akhannouch confirmed in January 2026 he will not run in the September 23, 2026 election, and his party replaced him as leader with Mohamed Chaouki on February 7, 2026. Morocco's constitution has King Mohammed VI appoint the prime minister from the winning party, which leaves Akhannouch outside the pool once a new government forms.
Watch the campaign window that opens September 10, the September 23 legislative vote, and how fast a new government is sworn in afterward. In 2021 the cabinet was formed within a month, so a similar timeline resolves this contract Yes well before December 31; a postponed election is the main path to No.