Hungary's parliament voted 139 to 6 on July 13, 2026 to strip Tamas Sulyok of the presidency through the 17th constitutional amendment, and this Polymarket contract prices his exit as the heavy favorite. Sulyok has refused to sign the measure, turning the trade into a pure promulgation standoff. The live board above carries the current Yes and No prices; the market resolves July 31, 2026.
Hungary's parliament has already voted Tamas Sulyok out. On July 13, 2026, lawmakers passed the 17th constitutional amendment by 139 votes to 6, a measure written to terminate the president's mandate on the day it takes effect. Sulyok refused to sign it and called it unconstitutional. That refusal is the whole remaining trade on this board: the question is no longer whether Hungary's new majority wants Sulyok gone, it is whether his exit formally lands before the July 31, 2026 deadline. The live board above carries the current prices on both sides.
The removal push is the direct product of Hungary's April 2026 election. Peter Magyar's Tisza Party won in a landslide, took a two-thirds parliamentary supermajority, and ended 16 years of government under Viktor Orban's Fidesz. Magyar called Sulyok "unworthy to embody the unity of the Hungarian nation" and demanded he leave office. Sulyok stayed, so Tisza used the supermajority to rewrite the constitution around him.
Sulyok is an Orban-era institution twice over. He led Hungary's Constitutional Court from 2016 to 2024, then was elected president as the Fidesz nominee on February 26, 2024, after Katalin Novak resigned over a pardon scandal. He took office on March 5, 2024, which means a removal by July 31 would cut his five-year term off before the halfway mark.
The 17th amendment, passed 139 to 6 with 54 abstentions, does the work directly: Sulyok's mandate terminates on the day the amendment takes effect, and parliament then elects a replacement head of state to serve until a new constitution is adopted, capped at five years. The same package carries a 12-year term limit for members of parliament and a 70-year age cap for constitutional judges.
The standoff is over promulgation. Sulyok had five days from the vote to sign the amendment into law, and he refused, saying it violates the rule of law, democracy and the separation of powers. As of July 17, 2026, the amendment remains unsigned. Tisza's stated answer is an impeachment procedure, and under Hungary's constitutional rules the parliamentary Speaker can sign in the president's place once Sulyok loses the power to act. The residual No price on this board is a bet on process, not politics: a Constitutional Court detour or an impeachment calendar that slips past July 31 is the only realistic path to Sulyok still holding the office in August.
The contract resolves July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It pays Yes if Sulyok ceases to be President of Hungary for any period of time before the deadline, and the announcement clause matters here: a formally announced resignation or removal before July 31 resolves the market Yes immediately, regardless of when the exit takes effect. Note what has not triggered resolution: the July 13 vote itself. The amendment ends Sulyok's mandate only when it takes effect, and it has not been promulgated, so the market kept trading through the vote. Polymarket's resolution source is official information from Sulyok and the Hungarian government, with a consensus of credible reporting also accepted.
Hungary's post-Orban power fight runs through several boards. Viktor Orban arrested by December 31 odds price the legal exposure of the man whose governments appointed Sulyok, and Will Trump visit Hungary odds track whether Budapest stays on Washington's itinerary under a Tisza government. Browse the full politics prediction markets hub for every election, leadership and geopolitics contract we track.
Resolves Yes if Tamas Sulyok ceases to be the President of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, and No otherwise. An announcement of Sulyok's resignation or removal before the deadline resolves the market Yes immediately, regardless of when the announced exit goes into effect. The resolution source is official information from Tamas Sulyok and the Hungarian government, with a consensus of credible reporting also accepted. The contract trades on Polymarket; each Yes share pays $1 if he is out, each No share pays $1 if he remains president through the deadline.
As of July 17, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 82c and No at 19c. That implies roughly an 82% chance Sulyok ceases to be Hungary's president before the July 31 deadline.
The market resolves July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves Yes immediately if a resignation or removal is announced before the deadline, even if the exit takes effect later.
This is a Polymarket contract. Yes shares pay $1 if Sulyok is out as President of Hungary by July 31, 2026; No shares pay $1 if he is still in office at the deadline.
Hungary's parliament passed the 17th constitutional amendment on July 13, 2026 by 139 votes to 6, ending Sulyok's mandate the day it takes effect. Prime Minister Peter Magyar's Tisza Party holds a two-thirds supermajority and has vowed impeachment if Sulyok keeps refusing to sign.
Watch whether Sulyok signs the amendment, whether the parliamentary Speaker signs in his place, and whether parliament opens an impeachment procedure. Any announced removal before July 31, 2026 resolves the market Yes on the spot.