Tamas Sulyok is out as President of Hungary, and the market on his exit by July 31, 2026 resolved Yes on both Kalshi and Polymarket. He signed the 17th constitutional amendment ending his own mandate on July 18, five days after parliament passed it 139 to 6, and the mandate ended on July 20, when Speaker Ágnes Forsthoffer began exercising presidential powers.
Resolved July 20, 2026.
Tamas Sulyok stopped being President of Hungary on July 20, 2026, two days after he signed a constitutional amendment written to end his own term. The market on whether he would be out by July 31 resolved Yes on both Kalshi and Polymarket. On the eve of the signature the two venues disagreed sharply: Polymarket's contract closed July 17 at about 80%, while Kalshi's matching contract, which required an actual departure, closed that day at 29%.
Hungary's National Assembly passed the 17th amendment to the Fundamental Law on July 13, 2026, by 139 votes to 6, with Fidesz lawmakers boycotting the session. The amendment ends the sitting president's mandate on the day after it enters into force. Sulyok had five days to sign. He signed on Saturday, July 18, calling the measure "unprecedented and shameful" and saying that refusing to sign would itself have been unlawful. His mandate ended on July 20, and Speaker of the National Assembly Ágnes Forsthoffer began exercising presidential powers that day.
Both venues settled the same day. Kalshi's "before Aug 1, 2026" contract closed early at 14:33 UTC on July 20 and settled Yes at 15:03 UTC. Polymarket's "by July 31" contract closed at 15:44 UTC on July 20 and resolved Yes. The earlier deadlines had gone the other way: Kalshi's before-June 1 and before-July 1 contracts and Polymarket's by-June 30 contract all resolved No.
Sulyok reached the presidency from the top of the judiciary. He was president of the Constitutional Court from November 2016 until March 2024 and took office as head of state on March 5, 2024, elected by a Fidesz-led parliament.
The April 12, 2026 election changed the arithmetic. Péter Magyar's Tisza Party won a two-thirds majority, ending Viktor Orbán's 16 years in power, and Magyar called on Sulyok and the country's top judges to resign by May 31. Sulyok refused and let the deadline pass. On June 1, Magyar said that unless the president resigned, the government and Tisza lawmakers would start the legislative process to replace him.
The 17th amendment was that process. Beyond ending Sulyok's term, it set a 12-year limit on service in parliament and a 70-year retirement age for Constitutional Court judges, which also forced out the court's president, Péter Polt. With a supermajority behind the text, the only open question by mid-July was whether Sulyok would sign it or force a slower route.
Polymarket listed its July 31 contract on June 26, 2026, alongside a June 30 rung that later resolved No.
| Date (UTC close) | Polymarket Yes |
| Jun 26, 2026 (listing day) | 87% |
| Jul 3, 2026 | 48% |
| Jul 12, 2026 (eve of the vote) | 89% |
| Jul 13, 2026 (vote day) | 79% |
| Jul 17, 2026 (eve of the signature) | 80% |
| Jul 18, 2026 (signature) | 99% |
Daily closes from Prediction Genius price history; July 17 is from Polymarket's own price history.
Polymarket kept Yes as the favorite for nearly the whole life of the contract, with a single dip to 48% at the July 3 close. The vote pushed it to 89%, then it slipped back to the high 70s while Sulyok's signature was outstanding, since a refusal would have pushed the outcome toward a slower impeachment route. The signature took it to 99%.
Kalshi was thinner and far more skeptical. Its "before Aug 1" contract traded around 60% in its first days in mid-May, drifted to about 40% by late June, and fell to 18% at the July 11 close (Kalshi days end at midnight ET). It closed vote day at 25% and July 17 at 29%, roughly 50 points below Polymarket on the eve of the signature, before jumping to 97% at the July 18 close. Part of that gap is the rules. Kalshi required Sulyok to have an actual departure date and vacate the role inside the window, while Polymarket counted an announced removal immediately. The Kalshi contract traded about 32,900 contracts in total; the Polymarket contract drew about $245K.
Polymarket had Yes as the favorite from listing, apart from the July 3 dip. Kalshi priced Yes as the underdog until the day of the signature.
Parliament filled the office within the month. On August 11, 2026, lawmakers elected András Baka, a former European Court of Human Rights judge who headed Hungary's Supreme Court from 2009 until he was removed after publicly criticizing the Orbán government's reforms, by 140 votes to 6 in a secret ballot. He took office on August 19, ending Forsthoffer's acting term. No prediction market listed the race to succeed Sulyok.
The post-Orbán reckoning still has a live market: Polymarket asks whether Viktor Orbán is arrested by December 31, 2026. For other heads of state and government facing exit questions, see whether Putin is out as President of Russia by the end of 2026, whether Xi Jinping is out before 2027, and whether Aziz Akhannouch is out as Morocco's prime minister by December 31. The full politics prediction markets hub carries every leadership and election board.
Polymarket's contract resolved Yes if Tamas Sulyok ceased to be President of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, and No otherwise; an announcement of his resignation or removal before the deadline resolved it Yes immediately, regardless of when the exit took effect. The resolution source was official information from Sulyok and the Hungarian government, with a consensus of credible reporting also accepted. Kalshi's matching contract asked whether Sulyok would be out before Aug 1, 2026, and required an actual departure date with Sulyok vacating the role inside the window; temporary leaves or suspensions did not count. Both settled Yes on July 20, 2026, the day his mandate ended: Kalshi closed early at 14:33 UTC and settled at 15:03 UTC, and Polymarket closed at 15:44 UTC and resolved Yes.
Yes. His mandate ended on July 20, 2026, under the 17th constitutional amendment he signed on July 18, and Speaker Ágnes Forsthoffer exercised presidential powers until András Baka took office on August 19.
Both venues settled Yes on July 20, 2026. Kalshi's before-Aug 1 contract settled at 15:03 UTC, and Polymarket's by-July 31 contract closed at 15:44 UTC and resolved Yes.
On July 17, the day before the signature, Polymarket priced Yes at about 80% while Kalshi's contract closed at 29%. Both moved above 95% on July 18.
Parliament's July 13 vote, 139 to 6, to pass the 17th amendment ending the president's mandate, and Sulyok's decision to sign it on July 18 instead of refusing.
Parliament elected András Baka president on August 11, 2026, by 140 votes to 6, and he took office August 19. A Polymarket market on whether Viktor Orbán is arrested by December 31, 2026 remains open.