Alec Pierce's Next Team asks whether the Colts receiver leaves Indianapolis before December 1, 2026, and the board has treated that as close to settled since he signed a four-year, $114M deal in March. The Kalshi board lists 32 outcomes and has traded about 85,000 contracts. The NFL trade deadline is November 10, 2026, the live board above shows current prices, and the market resolves December 1, 2026.
Updated November 4, 2026.
Alec Pierce's Next Team is a trade-deadline market on a player Indianapolis just paid to keep. Kalshi opened the board on the evening of March 8, 2026, and on March 9 Pro Football Rumors reported that Pierce had agreed to a four-year extension instead of testing free agency. The board spans 32 outcomes, one for every other NFL team plus "Stays with Indianapolis or Retires", and it has traded about 85,000 contracts. As of November 4, the stay outcome sits at 99% and no destination is priced above 3%. The live board above carries every current price.
The contract is the whole story. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero reported the deal at four years and $114M, with $84M guaranteed, $60M fully guaranteed at signing, and a ceiling of $116M. The same report said New England, Las Vegas, San Francisco, the Chargers and Washington were among the teams chasing him before he re-signed. Indianapolis paid for a specific skill: Pierce led the NFL in yards per catch in both 2024 (22.3) and 2025 (21.3), and his 2025 season produced career highs of 47 catches, 1,003 yards and six touchdowns.
The price has barely moved in the history on file. The stay contract closed at 98% on October 10, reached 99% the next day, and has closed at 99% on every recorded day since except a single 98% close on October 28. Daily volume is thin, often zero contracts, which tells the same story as the price: almost nobody is paying for a trade.
The 2026 season has not gone to plan for either side. ESPN reported that Pierce played only 41% of snaps in the first two games, then reinjured his left heel in the Week 2 overtime loss at Kansas City and went on injured reserve. He has five catches for 72 yards in two games, per ESPN, and ESPN's roster still lists him on injured reserve as of November 4.
The team around him has slid. Indianapolis is 2-6 after a 42-7 loss at Jacksonville on November 1, its fourth straight defeat. A losing record before the deadline is the usual trigger for seller talk, but a receiver on injured reserve with a new long-term deal is a hard asset to move in-season, and the market prices it that way.
The trade side of the board is flat. Arizona is the highest-priced destination at 3%, Atlanta and Carolina sit at 2%, and the other 28 teams trade at the 1% floor. Those quotes exist because the market has to list every franchise, not because a specific suitor has emerged. The real trade on this board is the binary between the stay contract and the whole field of destinations combined.
The market resolves based on Pierce's next team before December 1, 2026, per Kalshi's rules. The "Stays with Indianapolis or Retires" contract pays out if he is still a Colt or has retired at that point, and Kalshi stops trading at the end of November 30. The NFL trade deadline is 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, so an in-season trade has to clear by then, three weeks before the market closes.
The Colts' season runs through the Indianapolis Colts 2026 playoff odds, the Colts 2026 win total odds and the 2026 AFC South division odds. The last game before the deadline has its own board in Cowboys vs Colts on November 8. For another deadline question on Kalshi, see Maxx Crosby's next team odds, and the Super Bowl LXI champion odds frame the contenders. Full coverage on the sports hub.
Resolves based on Alec Pierce's next NFL team before December 1, 2026, per Kalshi's rules (event KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE). The "Stays with Indianapolis or Retires" contract pays $1 per share if Pierce remains with the Colts or has retired by that date; each team contract pays $1 per share if Pierce's next team is that team. All other outcomes resolve to $0, and the market closes early if a qualifying move occurs. Kalshi closes trading at the end of November 30, 2026. The NFL trade deadline is 4 p.m. ET on November 10, 2026, so an in-season trade must clear before then. This is a single-platform Kalshi market with no Polymarket contract.
As of November 4, 2026, the "Stays with Indianapolis or Retires" outcome trades at 99% on Kalshi. Arizona is the highest-priced trade destination at 3%, and the live board above shows all 32 outcomes.
It resolves based on Pierce's next team before December 1, 2026, and Kalshi stops trading at the end of November 30. The NFL trade deadline is 4 p.m. ET on November 10, 2026.
It trades on Kalshi under event KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE, with about 85,000 contracts traded across 32 outcomes. There is no Polymarket contract on this board.
Yes. Pierce agreed to a four-year, $114M deal with Indianapolis in March 2026, with $84M guaranteed, according to NFL Network. He led the NFL in yards per catch in 2024 and 2025.
Watch the Colts' November 8 game against Dallas, any trade reports before the 4 p.m. ET deadline on November 10, 2026, and Pierce's status on injured reserve. If the deadline passes with Pierce still a Colt, the stay contract is effectively settled.