Dolphins vs Colts Prediction Market Odds, November 15, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Main ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Dolphins | +2.5 49%49% | O 40.5 51%51% | 41%40% | 41% Kalshi |
▶Colts | -2.5 51%51% | U 40.5 49%49% | 55%54% | 55% Kalshi |
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Indianapolis is a short favorite in a game the market treats as close to even, and more of the money has backed Miami. The 2-7 Colts, losers of five straight, trade at 56% on both Kalshi and Polymarket as of 11:00 AM ET on November 10, with Colts -2.5 a 50% coin flip, against a 1-7 Miami team that has scored 126 points in eight games. The board carries roughly $32K in cumulative volume, the live board above has the current cross-platform prices, and kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 15, 2026 at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Two teams with three combined wins meet in Indianapolis, and the price is close to a coin flip with a field-goal lean. Indianapolis is 2-7 and has been outscored 249-184. Miami is 1-7 and has been outscored 200-126. Dolphins vs Colts odds put the Colts near 56%, roughly a 2.5-point favorite, and more of the board's money has backed the underdog than the favorite.
Dolphins vs Colts Odds: What the Board Says
As of 11:00 AM ET on November 10, Indianapolis trades at 56% on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Miami trades at 45% on Kalshi and 44% on Polymarket, so Polymarket holds the better price on the Dolphins by one point, the only cross-platform gap on the moneyline. A 56% moneyline next to a 50% price on -2.5 says the venues see a Colts win as more likely than not, but a margin of three or more as an even bet.
The money tilts toward Miami. The Dolphins moneyline leg has drawn about $16.9K of volume against $11.0K on the Colts leg, more action on the underdog than the favorite.
Inside the capture window, from 11:22 AM ET on November 9 to 10:45 AM ET on November 10, the line held. Indianapolis stayed between 56% and 57% on Kalshi across 53 captures and between 56% and 57% on Polymarket across 26 captures. Miami traded in a 43% to 45% band. The bigger move came earlier. Polymarket's daily record shows the Colts quoted near 69% on zero volume through November 2. When real volume arrived on November 3, two days after the Colts lost 42-7 at Jacksonville, the price closed at 55%, and it has closed between 53% and 57% every day since.
Dolphins vs Colts Spread and Total
The spread centers on 2.5. Indianapolis -2.5 trades at 50% on both venues, -1.5 at 54% on Kalshi and 53% on Polymarket, and -3.5 at 42%, so the market's fair margin sits right on 2.5. The steepest step on the ladder is across three: an eight-point drop from -2.5 to -3.5, so a Colts win by exactly a field goal is the single most important score for spread holders. Inside the window, -2.5 firmed from 49% to 50% on both venues.
The total sits at 40.5. Over 40.5 trades at 51% on both venues, with over 38.5 at 57% on Polymarket and over 42.5 at 44%. Kalshi's over 40.5 traded between 51% and 52% across the window while Polymarket rose from 50% to 51%. Miami games have averaged 40.8 combined points, almost exactly the line, and Indianapolis games 48.1. Kalshi's team totals put the Colts near 21.5 (over 21.5 at 50%) and the Dolphins near 20 (over 19.5 at 53%, over 20.5 at 44.5%).
Polymarket's early-game markets price Miami at 44% to win the first half and 46% to lead after the first quarter, close to its full-game price.
Dolphins vs Colts: Form, Rosters and Injuries
Indianapolis has lost five straight: 34-22 at Pittsburgh, 26-20 to Tennessee, 16-10 at Minnesota, 42-7 at Jacksonville and 27-23 to Dallas on November 8. The Colts are 1-3 at home. Daniel Jones has 1,722 passing yards with six touchdowns and 10 interceptions, and Anthony Richardson Sr. replaced him late in the Jacksonville loss. ESPN relayed a report from Tom Pelissero that the Colts told Jones he would not be moved before the November 10 trade deadline. Jonathan Taylor carries the offense with 656 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, and Josh Downs leads the team in receiving with 354 yards on 33 catches. Receiver Alec Pierce is on injured reserve with a heel injury.
Miami's only win is 28-25 at the Jets on October 25. The Dolphins lost 19-9 to Detroit on November 8, when Malik Willis completed 13 of 25 passes for 128 yards and an interception. Willis has 1,396 passing yards with six touchdowns and six interceptions this season. Ollie Gordon II leads the ground game with 463 yards and four touchdowns, and Malik Washington leads the team in receiving with 350 yards on 33 catches.
On ESPN's injury report as of November 10, Willis is questionable with a groin injury, and his status is the biggest swing factor on this board. Miami also lists running back Jaylen Wright (quadriceps) and tight end Will Kacmarek (quadriceps) as questionable, while defensive tackle Zach Sieler (biceps) and cornerback Darrell Baker Jr. are out. Indianapolis lists offensive tackle Jalen Travis (knee) as doubtful, and cornerback Justin Walley (knee), linebacker Akeem Davis-Gaither (knee), safety A.J. Haulcy (ankle) and tight end Mo Alie-Cox (groin) as questionable.
When the Dolphins vs Colts Market Resolves
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 15, 2026 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, broadcast on CBS, per ESPN's Week 10 scoreboard. The moneyline settles on the winner of the game including overtime, and spread and total contracts settle on the official final score. Both venues settle once the NFL declares the game final.
Key Dolphins vs Colts Catalysts
- Underdog money: the Dolphins leg has drawn $16.9K of volume against $11.0K on the favored Colts, and Polymarket is a point cheaper on Miami at 44%.
- Malik Willis: the Dolphins' starting quarterback is questionable with a groin injury as of November 10.
- The field goal: Indianapolis -2.5 is a 50% coin flip, and the ladder drops eight points to -3.5.
- A low total: 40.5 sits right at Miami's 40.8-point combined average.
- Turnovers: Daniel Jones has 10 interceptions this season for a Colts team on a five-game skid.
Related Dolphins vs Colts Markets
The result feeds the Colts win total and the Dolphins win total, plus the AFC South race and the AFC East race. Last week's boards are Cowboys vs Colts and Lions vs Dolphins. Team pages for the Colts and Dolphins collect every market on both clubs, and the rest of Week 10 lives on the NFL hub.
Resolution Criteria
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game at Lucas Oil Stadium on November 15, 2026, paying $1 per share on the winner and $0 on the loser, with overtime included in the result. Spread contracts settle against the final margin, so Indianapolis -2.5 requires a Colts win by at least three points, and total contracts settle against combined points scored by both teams including overtime. Team total, first-half and first-quarter contracts settle against the official box score for that period. Kalshi lists the game under the KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MIAIND series and Polymarket lists the matching two-way market, and both venues settle once the NFL declares the game final. A regular-season tie after overtime and any postponement are handled under each venue's published rules rather than voided automatically.
Key Factors
- Indianapolis trades at 56% on both venues, and Polymarket is a point cheaper than Kalshi on Miami at 44%
- Dolphins quarterback Malik Willis is questionable with a groin injury as of November 10
- Indianapolis -2.5 is a 50% coin flip on both venues, and -3.5 drops to 42%
- The 40.5 total matches Miami's 40.8-point combined average; Colts games average 48.1
- The Colts have lost five straight and Daniel Jones has thrown 10 interceptions this season
- The Dolphins moneyline leg has drawn more volume ($16.9K) than the favored Colts leg ($11.0K)
What are the current Dolphins vs Colts odds?
As of 11:00 AM ET on November 10, 2026, Indianapolis is the favorite at 56% on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Miami trades at 45% on Kalshi and 44% on Polymarket. The live board above carries the current prices.
Where does the Dolphins vs Colts market trade?
Both Kalshi and Polymarket list the game. Kalshi carries it under the KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MIAIND series with spread, total and team total markets, and Polymarket lists the matching moneyline plus half and quarter markets. The board aggregates roughly $32K in cumulative volume.
Who is favored in Dolphins vs Colts and by how much?
Indianapolis is favored at a 56% implied probability on both venues, and Colts -2.5 trades at 50%, making the Colts roughly a 2.5-point favorite. The Colts are 2-7 and the Dolphins are 1-7.
What is the spread and total for Dolphins vs Colts?
Indianapolis -2.5 trades at 50% on both venues, putting the fair spread at 2.5. The total sits at 40.5, with the over at 51% on both venues as of November 10.
When does the Dolphins vs Colts market resolve?
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 15, 2026 at Lucas Oil Stadium on CBS. The market resolves once the NFL declares the game final, with overtime included in moneyline, spread and total settlement.